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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2020

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13 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

6z GFS was a good run haha. I'd take that. 

Key point is all signs are pointing (finally) to a relaxing of the western trough that allows a better storm track and more opportunity for storms to tap the cold air available. I hate burning such vast stretches of winter but there may be light at the end of the tunnel. This has been consistently modeled to some degree for days now. Not just a run in fantasy land.

Yeah, the 6z GFS was the first real Op model run in a long time that evolves to a legitimate wintry pattern that would provide several non-trivial opportunities for a widespread winter storm.

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46 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

Very active period between January 17-22 that still looks interesting...  Historically, the time around MLK Holiday is a great spot for us,  probably because it is smack in the middle of our "coldest" portion of the year.  

Also interesting that the GFS still has a horrible cold bias, particularly past day 5.  The ECMWF and GFS are very different with the extent of the cold past day 5.  

What I'd like to see happen is something similar out west to what the GFS shows:

gfs_z500_mslp_namer_39.thumb.png.e24936df665e5e10c49d961b84ba9bf9.png

gfs_z500_mslp_namer_47.thumb.png.29bab1ebe5da1db3c1aa11723661a0b9.png

 

Have that low pinch off underneath the block to its north.  The Euro moves in that direction by 240, but it doesn't look as good.  It would turn into a good pattern for the east with a continued active STJ and cold highs dropping out of the north.

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IF the GFS is right we are going to go from a week were our nighttime lows are higher than our average daytime highs to struggling to get out of the upper 30's with lows in the teens and low 20's for a week lol....and the change is sudden, big front then big cold....

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1 minute ago, downeastnc said:

IF the GFS is right we are going to go from a week were our nighttime lows are higher than our average daytime highs to struggling to get out of the upper 30's with lows in the teens and low 20's for a week lol....and the change is sudden, big front then big cold....

I'm waiting to see it..

 

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5 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

IF the GFS is right we are going to go from a week were our nighttime lows are higher than our average daytime highs to struggling to get out of the upper 30's with lows in the teens and low 20's for a week lol....and the change is sudden, big front then big cold....

One thing we can bank on with Op Models on modeled cold- it will be more progressive than shown this far out

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1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said:

One thing we can bank on with Op Models on modeled cold- it will be more progressive than shown this far out

And it will not be as cold as modeled, especially on the GFS. If it’s showing 30s/10s now, it’ll be 45/30 at verification 

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1 minute ago, Orangeburgwx said:

Nope, "ice ice baby"9be794d72f945f5b0d227ff93b00d435.jpg

Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk
 

I know we can get some ice with low tracks W of the apps, but up through Chicago, meh! We have seen these crazy totals at this range already a few times this year. Still looks interesting from 18th on

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2 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Euro does not have the cold. At all lol.

 

2 hours ago, franklin NCwx said:

Eps has the best look we have seen all year! Definitely moving towards a wintry patter.

Soooo, which is it? :lol: 

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Just now, Jonathan said:

 

Soooo, which is it? :lol: 

Well.... I would roll with the ensembles over op models in the extended. 

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Just now, franklin NCwx said:

Well.... I would roll with the ensembles over op models in the extended. 

Oh, ok. I didn't realize that was op vs ens. For sure on the ensemble. Let's keep the good juju flowing!

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This GFS run from hr200 to hr324 gave me a flashback to the early Jan 2017 storm look where it tucks part of the upper wave in the NE Pac back west, but dives a piece of it southeast out of the Pac NW into the cold air over us

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Now let's all hope the gfs is right! Looks like a great pattern for sure. Would like to see the euro get on board with the ensembles

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8 minutes ago, oconeexman said:

Now let's all hope the gfs is right! Looks like a great pattern for sure. Would like to see the euro get on board with the ensembles

Now you go in the corner, and you think about what you just said Mr. :D

Long range I'm waiting for the ensembles to tell the tale.  Two GFS runs in a row is noteworthy I guess, but I'd like the ensemble means to show an average out likelyhood of a better pattern down the road. 

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8 minutes ago, SnowNiner said:

Now you go in the corner, and you think about what you just said Mr. :D

Long range I'm waiting for the ensembles to tell the tale.  Two GFS runs in a row is noteworthy I guess, but I'd like the ensemble means to show an average out likelyhood of a better pattern down the road. 

Lol yea it excites me a little but not buying in quite yet. There are lots of signals pointing this in the right direction. Nice ridge building in Pacific northwest. Some blocking in the NE and the southern stream remains a fire hose..ingredients are there IF its right.

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Yea I'm not buying it yet either. All the indices are still in the wrong places and the operational Euro is still infatuated with keeping our friend, the SE ridge and delaying any cold air arrival. 

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14 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Yea I'm not buying it yet either. All the indices are still in the wrong places and the operational Euro is still infatuated with keeping our friend, the SE ridge and delaying any cold air arrival. 

You look at op models over ensembles?

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3 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said:

You look at op models over ensembles?

No but it's another piece of the puzzle. I think the GFS is bringing the colder pattern in too early by 3 or 4 days at least. It won't be until Around MLK day or later when we could see a decent winter pattern. 

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3 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

No but it's another piece of the puzzle. I think the GFS is bringing the colder pattern in too early by 3 or 4 days at least. It won't be until Around MLK day or later when we could see a decent winter pattern. 

Probably not, but the changes are taking place well before that in the Pacific.  It's under 10 days now and has been shown on the ensembles for several days. I think chances are better than normal we get into a wintry period. 

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27 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

Can we get a wing and a prayer?c9d97e87387b3d60ef01aeb8fcfde59b.jpg&key=1ef91f53c4fd3e48ebe6854ed0ca17b25da68e3308bad55467d42fc596b3e2ca

 

Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk

 

 

 

04467e4ee16f09d3273b2a7c93645f65.jpg86d8c56d5781187cb34781ea3ead04f2.jpg

That would definitely help us in the southeast. Although not a guarantee but it typically our best storms happen with mjo in 7 or 8!

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