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MAG5035

Central PA - Late Dec 2019/Jan 2020

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Couple pics before I cleaned up, plus the snowboard I threw together this week with some stuff I had around the house. I hope to use all 20 inches of that ruler at some point this winter.
 

i left the snowboard untouched and measured the sleet off another surface, so it shows what the mess compacted down to (about 1.5"). 
 

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All done here for the most part. Total frozen was 2.1" of which 1.7" was snow and 0.4" was sleet. I shoveled the snow just as it switched over, and now just finished shoveling the sleet. It's consistancy was like scooping sugar.

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2 hours ago, Bubbler86 said:

We are going to need Blizz to keep us going as verbatim the LR models are literally punting into the second week of Feb.  Jeff Feagles and Ray Guy are red with embarrassment as to how much punting they are doing. 

 

 

Well, I’ll try to do my best. We just need around normal temps with some cold air in the vicinity this time of year to have a chance.

Here is what CTP had to say about the coming week :

“Upper ridge and elongated surface high build over the eastern U.S. early next week, keeping the rest of the workweek mainly dry with chilly temps 5-10 degrees below normal through midweek. Wed morning looks like the chilliest time before temperatures rebound back above normal Thu and Fri ahead of the next potential storm system. A trough will eject across the Plains and the Mississippi Valley by Saturday morning. This will provide increasing moisture and southwest flow, leading to the return of widespread precipitation potential by later Friday and Saturday.”

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There's quite a bit of convection showing up on radar out by Mag and west central PA.  Temps are in the mid to upper 40's in far western PA right now.  The cold air hasn't even reached eastern OH yet.  I'm thinking we might have quite the spike in temps over the next 6 hours as the front pushes eastward and scours out our surface cold.  Currently I'm at 31.8 about to hit 32 any minute now.  I wouldn't be surprised if we rocket up towards 40 overnight before settling back down.

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1 hour ago, CarlislePaWx said:

There's quite a bit of convection showing up on radar out by Mag and west central PA.  Temps are in the mid to upper 40's in far western PA right now.  The cold air hasn't even reached eastern OH yet.  I'm thinking we might have quite the spike in temps over the next 6 hours as the front pushes eastward and scours out our surface cold.  Currently I'm at 31.8 about to hit 32 any minute now.  I wouldn't be surprised if we rocket up towards 40 overnight before settling back down.

I was out for a bit when some of this is going through. It's in the 40s once you get up past the crest of the Allegheny front into Cambria County (which is a matter of 5-10 miles or so and 1100' up from here) but it's still 33ºF down here in Altoona. With the rain moved out I can see the low clouds above the city lights and they're flying by. So once those gusty winds mix down it's probably going to rapidly jump into the mid-upper 30s for a bit. But for now all untreated surfaces are still frozen with a tenth or so of ZR. There were some pretty decent downpours and it was enough that there's some ponding of water in spots where the plowed snow/sleet is blocking drains.

Just miserable out. I'd almost take a fringe job while DC got 20" over this...ALMOST. 

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Ironically, even though I really don't want my temp to go above freezing, for the moment I do want it to go up into the mid 30's.  My tipping bucket rain gauge has all of today's snow and sleet sitting inside it, frozen, waiting to melt.  I was hoping it would start melting today before midnight so the precip could actually be recorded on today's date.  That's not looking likely now as my temp is just vacillating between 32.2 and 32.4 degrees.  Last week I actually went out during the snowstorm and poured warm water into the gauge until it had tipped 45 times for 0.45" of liquid.  All in the name of accuracy.  Now is that dedication or what??  :lmao:

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11 hours ago, Anduril said:

So uh...whats the best way to remove this frozen shart sleet? Ice melt and then shovel? lol

if your driveway is relatively smooth 4-6 tine pitchfork with the fork at about 45° then push of with shovel. its cake as long as it has not hardened to much. If its to hard salt or chrorlide  first what until you see water pockets forming underneath then fork it.

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if I would have put a point in front of my 7 I would have been very close probably about the same a daxx. Such a idiot I  I should have known better with that track . Still had a great day the IP made for some killer sledding with the kids

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11 hours ago, MAG5035 said:

Couple pics before I cleaned up, plus the snowboard I threw together this week with some stuff I had around the house. I hope to use all 20 inches of that ruler at some point this winter.
 

i left the snowboard untouched and measured the sleet off another surface, so it shows what the mess compacted down to (about 1.5"). 
 

85BC4710-EE76-4B30-BE3E-7AD543B80571.jpeg.bb0547afa8a6a3f20a96d8d629e15ae6.jpeg3C7C83B7-FBE2-4432-946E-98F7BA42A354.jpeg.c3c18630365952fde1d82542729db5ab.jpeg

 

 

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I could be wrong but that looks like polystyrene or pvc bord. If its polystyrene I think it is a very easy, smart ,affordable and lightest weight idea. I am going to build a few with Polystyrene. Im sure you will be weighing it down or spiking it for some storms if its poly but I think they may need a one spike In the center or another sheet so it doesn't flex in a high wind situation. 

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Well I hope we get into something next weekend, because it was nice to play around in winter weather yesterday.  Snow/sleet combo also had me around 2''' prior to backend light rain/drizzle and warm nose did its thingy.  Still have enough compacted snow/ice that i may rip around in the fields today.  Reports of 4-6" in northern Pa (friends up to snowmobile).  Will get reports later today as i think they may have gotten enough to rip around a bit (Base was wiped out so not sure).

I think Nam and GFS did a decent job w/ this event.  Looking forward to the next one.

 

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9 hours ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

Ended up with 0.9” sleet and 0.6” snow for 1.5” total event.    Temp is up to 30.   @Blizzard of 93 so the sleet wasn’t added to MDT snow total?  I can check in the morning if you’d like.  I know I tried once before and didn’t get anywhere.  

@Cashtown_Coop 

Yes, with the final daily summary, they have the final snow total of 1.0 inches of snow at MDT.

When you look at the hourly observation chart, after the snow changed to sleet, MDT had .27 of precip, most of which was sleet.

I think that they didn’t account for nearly as much sleet as what took place when compared with nearby towns.

In the grand scheme of things, this is not much of a difference, but when a place like MDT only averages around 31 inches of snow per season, it should count everything that’s possible.

 

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Getting some LES this morning. Looks like we might have picked up an inch.

Getting around to go out and clean everything up, I will get a measurement. 2" yesterday, surprised how fast the warm air advanced yesterday even with all that cold air in place.

Next weekends storm looks like it will start out as snow and change to rain. But we have a lot of time for lots of changes this week.

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46 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

@Cashtown_Coop 

Yes, with the final daily summary, they have the final snow total of 1.0 inches of snow at MDT.

When you look at the hourly observation chart, after the snow changed to sleet, MDT had .27 of precip, most of which was sleet.

I think that they didn’t account for nearly as much sleet as what took place when compared with nearby towns.

In the grand scheme of things, this is not much of a difference, but when a place like MDT only averages around 31 inches of snow per season, it should count everything that’s possible.

 

I measured exactly 1" as well, though I'm 15 miles SE of MDT.

36 here now.

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2 minutes ago, pawatch said:

Getting some LES this morning. Looks like we might have picked up an inch.

Getting around to go out and clean everything up, I will get a measurement. 2" yesterday, surprised how fast the warm air advanced yesterday even with all that cold air in place.

Next weekends storm looks like it will start out as snow and change to rain. But we have a lot of time for lots of changes this week.

My thoughts regarding the CAD were that it would hold better the further east one was in the state.  Some models scoured rather swiftly and some held on (caught on) at the end.

I'm not sure how this chalks up from a forecasting perspective, but to me the CAD did as well or better than modeled.  GFS showed the warm nose that would punch late and it did a good job of it.  The "win" in my book was staying frozen as long as we did.  IF that warm nose didnt verify, I'd seriously be out snowmobiling (and can still play around a bit here). 

I had fun throwing my thought out there early on....and stood by them.  Thats what I'm here for. 

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Talk about durable...my temp overnight rose to 40 degrees and yet not even 0.01" of the frozen mixture in my rain gauge melted.  Now the temp is back down to 35.  I need the sun to come out before we drop below freezing to get some melting action going...lol.

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The 0z Canadian had the best look for the potential storm next weekend.

It will all depend on the strength & position of the Highs to the north & the location of the development of the coastal storm.

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58 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The 0z Euro & GEFS had secondary coastal development as well.

The Euro again hit inland & elevated areas hard again with snow.

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Will be interesting to see what the next few days offer wrt next weekend.  GFS showing a cutter much like yesterday has to be a red flag.  Sure hoping Euro and CMC are onto something...even if its a rainer for many here. 

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