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MAG5035

Central PA - Late Dec 2019/Jan 2020

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1 hour ago, MAG5035 said:

New thread and hopefully a new pattern for the better in the near future. 

Thanks MAG !

I think that we will be actively tracking a winter storm threat between New Year’s & the end of the first week of the new year.

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Waiting for fam to get up, so I thought I'd snoop for weather gifts from Santa..... 

and hey, its not a 384hr panel....its down to 360, so odds have increased by .11114% of this verifying.

Merry Christmas all!

Nut

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_60.png

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Hope everyone had a good holiday.

Guidance is all over the place next week with respect to whatever system decides to come about within the first few days of the new year after another cutting storm slotted for late this weekend. We're talking past D7 so the uncertainty is to be expected. The differences between the 0z GFS and Euro are pretty big tonight in that range. The possibility of a system to deliver something to the area is there, but I'm seeing some fundamental issues with the pattern overall. Cold air availability and source region seems to be an issue. Despite the model differences, you don't see much anomalous cold up in Canada at all until you get way out into GFS long range. The Euro is especially warm in this respect, having a lot of anomalously warm 2m temps in Canada and the US. Tonight's Euro didn't even really settle in much cold behind the weekend system. The GFS has the better 500mb look next week, and would be fairly workable. But it doesn't look especially cold and we could end up with another system that has, for example an okay track but still ends up with p-type issues.

Also noticing a lot of low heights remaining near the pole. You don't see the PV (or a piece of it) centered over say, Hudson Bay. Low heights centered on the pole is indicative of a +AO regime, and the latest AO forecast is through the roof. +AO keeps the arctic air locked up poleward, and the fairly progressive regime in the mid latitudes (+EPO, no established PNA ridge, transient at best ridging in the NAO region) would seem to serve as reasonable explanation of our lackluster pattern at the moment. 

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1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Sunshine and 50. Beautiful day to walk on the river trail with my wife!

57 here and feels great for the day.  Day started off in the 20's so quite a large range.

 

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2 hours ago, Bubbler86 said:

57 here and feels great for the day.  Day started off in the 20's so quite a large range.

 

Yes...we've strung together a few days with frosty starts and mellow afternoons. Honestly the weather recently reminds me more of early November than late December.

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57 here and feels great for the day.  Day started off in the 20's so quite a large range.
 

If it ain’t gonna snow, I love the milder conditions. I’m 47 years old and really starting to like warmer weather. Unfortunately, I still love snow so I know we need the cold for that.


.

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2 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Yes...we've strung together a few days with frosty starts and mellow afternoons. Honestly the weather recently reminds me more of early November than late December.

Last year around this time we were saying the weather reminded us of Early October so that is a move in the right direction I guess. 

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1 hour ago, Superstorm said:


If it ain’t gonna snow, I love the milder conditions. I’m 47 years old and really starting to like warmer weather. Unfortunately, I still love snow so I know we need the cold for that.


.

I second this especially cold and windy...we need the cold for snow but single digits and no snow is worse than 50 and no snow, in my opinion. 

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2 hours ago, Superstorm said:


If it ain’t gonna snow, I love the milder conditions. I’m 47 years old and really starting to like warmer weather. Unfortunately, I still love snow so I know we need the cold for that.


.

 

25 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I second this especially cold and windy...we need the cold for snow but single digits and no snow is worse than 50 and no snow, in my opinion. 

I feel the same way guys...at least until it snows. Then I want bitter cold thereafter.

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2 hours ago, Bubbler86 said:

I second this especially cold and windy...we need the cold for snow but single digits and no snow is worse than 50 and no snow, in my opinion. 

The cold kills bugs, so it’s needed.

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There should be a colder period developing next weekend. The question will then be if it will lock in or move out after the following week.

The MJO & EPO will have a lot to say about how the pattern will evolve. If the MJO can take a longer loop through phase 7 & 8 as some models indicated yesterday, then that could help the pattern turn more favorable for winter weather in the east. The EPS yesterday showed the EPO heading toward & staying near neutral territory over the next couple of weeks. The SOI also has been very negative against it’s base state for the last 4 days with values near -20. 

Hopefully we will be back to Winter storm tracking as we head into the the New Year.

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54 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Very favorable track on the 0Z Euro in early January.  Just need to find the cold....about 10 degrees worth. 

Yes, that was a nice track on the Euro.

It looks like the period just after this storm that you mentioned will turn favorable for winter storm chances. The GEFS is quite cold & active with chances beginning just after next weekend through the following week.

When is the PA farm show this year ? Maybe for once that will help to bring us some snow ?!

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Gotta post in this here thread so I can more easily find it...lol

On a weather note, the weather today in PA (Harrisburg in particular) was nearly identical to that in Phoenix AZ. It was 51 and rainy in Phoenix and 50 and rainy in Harrisburg.

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