Blizzard of 93 Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 The old PA Farm Show snow rule could be in effect this year. This is the best looking GEFS run that I have seen in some time. Of course, take snow maps at long range with a grain of salt, but for the purpose of spotting trends, they help to tell the possible story. Most of the snow on this 6z GEFS map falls during the Farm Show week! It looks like the possibility of a few events. There are some nice hits among the individual ensemble members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 It’s a great day. If it were early late April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 1 hour ago, canderson said: It’s a great day. If it were early late April. Was on Sideling Hill range east of Breezewood and it was 63 and more that an hour in the sun would have produced a burn on sensitive people. Great day to be outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 1 hour ago, canderson said: It’s a great day. If it were early late April. 34 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Was on Sideling Hill range east of Breezewood and it was 63 and more that an hour in the sun would have produced a burn on sensitive people. Great day to be outside. Took my wife on a walk on the local river trail after the Cotton Bowl and I was sweating pretty good. Gorgeous spring day! Until we snow I'm fine with this weather. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 28, 2019 Author Share Posted December 28, 2019 It does appear we will set up for a more solid shot of cold toward the end of next week as we finally build some heights out west and in the Pac and dump a trough into the east. First though, we probably go through another potentially wet outcome late week as the potential system in that realm looks vulnerable to cutting with energy dumping into the west and driving up heights in the east. 500 pattern doesn't look bad overall prior to that this week with below normal heights across a majority of the US the first half of the week but not a lot of cold thats tapped quite yet. We should see a few seasonal days and probably some snow showers in the central and western mountains behind tomorrow into Mon's system. Models are in good agreement currently with this more significant pattern shift and cold shot beyond this week. The main questions being of course if we can score some opportunities and will it actually have some staying power (and at the current modeled strength). The current long range eventually really builds a central Pac ridge, which coupled with a -PNA, continued low heights overall near the pole (+AO) and no real blocking in the NAO realm still presents a potentially flawed pattern going forward. I'm talking beyond D8-10 with that, so nothing set in stone by any stretch of the imagination. If you think about it, you erase that lucky strike mid November snowstorm last year (which could have easily happened this November) and we're just about where we were at this time last year. A lot of us were shut out last December, which didn't quite happen this year, but we were looking towards the 2nd week or so of January for things to turn. Kinda why I'm not a fan of the cold November, you set up a good overall longer term pattern and typically they'll break down/transition after 30 days or so. The issues are a bit different this year, but we're still quite early in the game. If we get a decent pattern to set in as progged at the end of the week and it stick for a time.. we're only into the second week of January. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 29, 2019 Author Share Posted December 29, 2019 Too bad we're talking D8-10+, but 0z Canadian and Euro op showing how we can capitalize with the colder pattern progged to set in at the end of this coming week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 29, 2019 Share Posted December 29, 2019 7 hours ago, MAG5035 said: Too bad we're talking D8-10+, but 0z Canadian and Euro op showing how we can capitalize with the colder pattern progged to set in at the end of this coming week. Yes, the 0z Euro, 0z Canadian & 6z GFS all like the idea of a winter storm around the 7th of January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted December 29, 2019 Share Posted December 29, 2019 I think we are seeing the light at the end of tunnel! Only 7 to 8 days yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted December 29, 2019 Share Posted December 29, 2019 34 minutes ago, daxx said: I think we are seeing the light at the end of tunnel! Only 7 to 8 days yet. At least for a couple days. The 12z eps gets ugly again a short time after our small widow. I think I'm going to wait awhile to post. Hopefully in a week the models will be more consistent. Have a happy New Year! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 29, 2019 Share Posted December 29, 2019 6 minutes ago, daxx said: At least for a couple days. The 12z eps gets ugly again a short time after our small widow. I think I'm going to wait awhile to post. Hopefully in a week the models will be more consistent. Have a happy New Year! Yeah, I think we need to just work our way through mid week and see what the next cold shot can deliver. Beyond day 10 looks like an ugly ridge reload, but I'm not sweating it yet. Subtle changes will come....good or bad. Happy New Year to all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted December 30, 2019 Share Posted December 30, 2019 Since it's a little slow. New Year's Day past weather. 60's wasn't to bad to us. https://www.weather.gov/ctp/NewYearsWeather 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 30, 2019 Share Posted December 30, 2019 Well my early Jan predict of some snow is turning into yet another cutter. The zonal flow has not materialized as hoped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 30, 2019 Share Posted December 30, 2019 Currently light rain with just over .9" for the event. Need one more good shower to push me over the inch mark. We do rain well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 30, 2019 Share Posted December 30, 2019 Yikes the long range looks horrific. Thankfully it's not dependable at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 30, 2019 Share Posted December 30, 2019 1 hour ago, canderson said: Yikes the long range looks horrific. Thankfully it's not dependable at all. Yeah it really does...I was going to say it but tried to find something positive lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted December 30, 2019 Share Posted December 30, 2019 Looks like a repeat this Friday of yesterday. Then maybe a chance....If not next look 20th. Just no cold in place when we need it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted December 30, 2019 Share Posted December 30, 2019 Rough look for next few weeks, hoping for something to surprise here soon but not holding my breath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 30, 2019 Share Posted December 30, 2019 @Cashtown_Coop we were touching a bit on micro climates a couple weeks back, with the ice in your back yard and 40's and 50's in mine, and I just spent the day in Thurmont, Cascade, and Pen Mar mired in fog and mid 40's and arrived home to sunny and low 60's. Just a couple miles apart. This pic tells it all. My development is the white group of houses just to the left of the silo at 1/4 way up the mountain and just a few hundred further up the temps drop 10-15 degrees in what looks like the top of a marshmallow sundae when taken a mile back away from my place.. Cool and sad at the same time (why I rarely get ice storms). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted December 30, 2019 Share Posted December 30, 2019 6 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: @Cashtown_Coop we were touching a bit on micro climates a couple weeks back, with the ice in your back yard and 40's and 50's in mine, and I just spent the day in Thurmont, Cascade, and Pen Mar mired in fog and mid 40's and arrived home to sunny and low 60's. Just a couple miles apart. This pic tells it all. My development is the white group of houses just to the left of the silo at 1/4 way up the mountain and just a few hundred further up the temps drop 10-15 degrees in what looks like the top of a marshmallow sundae when taken a mile back away from my place.. Cool and sad at the same time (why I rarely get ice storms). I was wondering how things were on your side today. I’ve been stuck in low clouds and fog with a high of 44 so far. The vis sat really shows what you’re talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 30, 2019 Share Posted December 30, 2019 15 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: I was wondering how things were on your side today. I’ve been stuck in low clouds and fog with a high of 44 so far. The vis sat really shows what you’re talking about. Yep, my own little slice of summer. Though the temps have dropped and the fog is creeping back down the mountain now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted December 30, 2019 Share Posted December 30, 2019 3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Yep, my own little slice of summer. Though the temps have dropped and the fog is creeping back down the mountain now. The wind has backed around to the NE which prob brought the clouds back your way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 30, 2019 Share Posted December 30, 2019 11 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: The wind has backed around to the NE which prob brought the clouds back your way. It was about 400 feet away an hour ago and down under 200 now. LOL. I feel like I should be blaring a fog horn or something. Interesting weather during our "winter" of 2019-2020. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 30, 2019 Share Posted December 30, 2019 1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said: It was about 400 feet away an hour ago and down under 200 now. LOL. I feel like I should be blaring a fog horn or something. Interesting weather during our "winter" of 2019-2020. That is a great picture. Interesting climate over there...I've been stuck at 43 for hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 30, 2019 Share Posted December 30, 2019 3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: That is a great picture. Interesting climate over there...I've been stuck at 43 for hours. So we ended up about 20 degrees higher than you today. Assuming the NWS forecast for you was similar to mine they busted about 15 too low in your hood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 30, 2019 Share Posted December 30, 2019 Pulled a bunch of weeds today that have grown the past few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 1 hour ago, canderson said: Pulled a bunch of weeds today that have grown the past few weeks. I was at my parents' house in Danville all last week and also noticed some fresh greens coming through their flower beds. Pretty soon palm trees will be growing there with the ridiculously lame winters of late... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 5 hours ago, canderson said: Pulled a bunch of weeds today that have grown the past few weeks. The weeds are punting their off season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 I can’t wait until it snows next week so we have something to discuss other than weeds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 The middle of next week still has potential to provide us with a snow storm. The 0z models had the Euro showing a cutter, the Canadian was close with an inland runner, & the GFS said “what storm?”. There is still lots of time to determine our chances for PA Farm Show week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 I thought that with the year ending, today would be a good time to post this chart that CTP has on their website that shows the Harrisburg snow totals since 1980. Looking back on the last 40 years is a good reminder that some of our memorable snow years were surrounded by bad snow seasons. The best example of that is the epic seasons of 93-94 & 95-96 had the terrible winter of 94-95 sandwiched in the middle. I can’t imagine the sad state of this place During the run of bad winters of 05-06 to 08-09 or the pitiful period snow between 96-97 to 01-02. This chart is a good reminder that for many years, snow lovers suffer while waiting for a good or great or even average winter season in our area. Harrisburg has been on a very good run recently, with 5 out of the last 6 years exceeding the 30.9 inch average seasonal snow total. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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