pasnownut Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 and to narrow the goalposts a bit per the good convo above, knowing our regional climo here says w/ a setup like this, and what we are seeing on the maps, gut says very little pure liquid if at all. Warm nose gets into Oh, but CAD structure should show up inside of 24-36 as we near go time. Thermal profiles should support more sleet. If 700 warms then ZR wins the day. On the other hand Trainers 2-4 is really a legit call w/ an event like this. As the storm track seems to be pretty well defined. Keep an eye on the HP. Thats the money ticket for frozen. If that loses strength or gets outta here more expeditiously in the next couple days....well you know what that means. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 4 minutes ago, pasnownut said: and to narrow the goalposts a bit per the good convo above, knowing our regional climo here says w/ a setup like this, and what we are seeing on the maps, gut says very little pure liquid if at all. Warm nose gets into Oh, but CAD structure should show up inside of 24-36 as we near go time. Thermal profiles should support more sleet. If 700 warms then ZR wins the day. On the other hand Trainers 2-4 is really a legit call w/ an event like this. As the storm track seems to be pretty well defined. Keep an eye on the HP. Thats the money ticket for frozen. If that loses strength or gets outta here more expeditiously in the next couple days....well you know what that means. Yep...it means something for snow amounts, but it means everything for the duration of frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 5 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Yep...it means something for snow amounts, but it means everything for the duration of frozen. If we can sneak a primarily frozen event in for the first storm of the "pattern change", that is EASILY a win for me (us?). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Just now, pasnownut said: If we can sneak a primarily frozen event in for the first storm of the "pattern change", that is EASILY a win for me (us?). Totally agree. And coming off last week's little gem in a godawful pattern we'd be in a great spot going forward. I don't read DT either. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 9 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Totally agree. And coming off last week's little gem in a godawful pattern we'd be in a great spot going forward. I don't read DT either. As many times as hes ridden the good ship "ECMWF" to its death, he really takes away from his credibility. Its a great model, but not perfect as we all know too well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Models continue to slow down the weekend system...giving time for the High/CAD to scoot out into the Atlantic. In 48 hours we have gone from snowing mid day Fri to no precip until mid day Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: Models continue to slow down the weekend system...giving time for the High/CAD to scoot out into the Atlantic. In 48 hours we have gone from snowing mid day Fri to no precip until mid day Saturday. It's also drier. A bad combo if we want snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Wow...I can't believe how dead it got in here. 12z GFS and Euro are out, and there's no discussion. I imagine it's because the Euro was a big fat kick in the nuts. Still holding on to about 4 inches here (a far cry from earlier depictions), but what it did to the Lower Susquehanna region is unreal... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, Voyager said: Wow...I can't believe how dead it got in here. 12z GFS and Euro are out, and there's no discussion. I imagine it's because the Euro was a big fat kick in the nuts. Still holding on to about 4 inches here (a far cry from earlier depictions), but what it did to the Lower Susquehanna region is unreal... If you look back through the past few threads we've been very erratic posters. There are times (I'm talking recently) where there isn't a single post for 24 hours and then we'll rip off 2-3 pages in 8 hours. While snow talk contributes to that, it isn't all of it. We were pretty active over the weekend talking about the warmth. I'm sure some of the quiet right now is watching everything get progressively worse for the weekend...it's disheartening even if it should have been expected to some degree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 The slowing trend is disheartening because it makes sense, and we know holding on to cold will be tough so any delay means a pretty big difference between snow vs nothing. Lots of time. however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 48 minutes ago, Voyager said: Wow...I can't believe how dead it got in here. 12z GFS and Euro are out, and there's no discussion. I imagine it's because the Euro was a big fat kick in the nuts. Still holding on to about 4 inches here (a far cry from earlier depictions), but what it did to the Lower Susquehanna region is unreal... I have just been crazy busy...stopping in a few times a day but no time to post much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 58 minutes ago, Voyager said: Wow...I can't believe how dead it got in here. 12z GFS and Euro are out, and there's no discussion. I imagine it's because the Euro was a big fat kick in the nuts. Still holding on to about 4 inches here (a far cry from earlier depictions), but what it did to the Lower Susquehanna region is unreal... I have the least knowledge here. leading up to events i read more and post less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 30 minutes ago, sauss06 said: I have the least knowledge here. leading up to events i read more and post less. Can't agree with you on this one Jon. Your age, knowledge and record keeping gives you an advantage over some. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 1 hour ago, sauss06 said: I have the least knowledge here. leading up to events i read more and post less. I knew I was doing something wrong... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 14, 2020 Author Share Posted January 14, 2020 Well today's 12z GFS was probably one of the better runs yet for the area from that model, essentially having a nearly all snow/frozen event for everyone north of the turnpike. The Euro doesn't have a lot of QPF up front, or overall really... probably about 50% of the GFS QPF. I don't see a tremendous difference thermally, 850's spike above zero very briefly and they're already crashing all within a 6 hr frame on both. The Euro just didn't have very much of a front end thump, whether that's right or wrong. My opinion attm is it probably is a bit too dry. Anyone with Euro ensemble products can probably see if that's reflective of such things on there. Still plenty of time, by this time tomorrow we'll be able to get some early hot takes on the NAM. This probably won't be an especially long duration storm either, pattern is still progressive. This thing is coming into the Pac NW, reforming on the other side of the Rockies and pretty much moving straight across at the same latitude. The strong high is there but it isn't anchored and will be moved as the storm approaches from the west. But cold air wraps around this system quickly and never really drives up anything torch-worthy aloft, so I think the cold will hold at low levels enough if the heavier precip is there up front. I'd say the top end potential is a 4-8 type deal for a C-PA location that sees a mainly frozen event. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 2 hours ago, canderson said: The slowing trend is disheartening because it makes sense, and we know holding on to cold will be tough so any delay means a pretty big difference between snow vs nothing. Lots of time. however. 18Z GFS speeds it back up a tad....morning start to the snow Saturday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 18Z GFS speeds it back up a tad....morning start to the snow Saturday. And made a big difference.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 10 minutes ago, Superstorm said: And made a big difference. . Yes, it sure did make a good difference. The 18z GFS held serve again & said game still very much on for CTP ! It actually improved slightly for many areas in CTP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 58 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: 18Z GFS speeds it back up a tad....morning start to the snow Saturday. also looks a little better than 12z early on w/ LP. Also a little further south w/ frozen. No nuts kicked here. Some just dont over analyze an op run at 5 days. We look for trends and there really has been little new here. As I stated earlier today, thermal profiles are what are most important, and 18z was a notable improvement at 700/850's. Supports more frozen. Actually I'm quite happy with what i just saw. Nice step for CTP 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flatheadsickness Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 I was going to rant today about its nothing new at all for the models dance around in this time frame until where within 72 hours to 48 hours. But considering how smooth things have went with this systems forecast so far out I figured she would be coming back home in no time . You can tell we been through a few bad years here. Dont let the computers stump on your fun on the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 27 minutes ago, pasnownut said: No nuts kicked here. Some just dont over analyze an op run at 5 days. We look for trends and there really has been little new here. It's been an extremely boring day/week/month. I haven't worked since 12/19 due to the charter bus business being highly seasonal (which I never knew until I got in), and the whole company being closed from 12/23 to 1/6. It's very frustrating not working, and I'm really wishing I'd have stayed in trucking. Sorry for being a bit "ornery" today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flatheadsickness Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 I noticed squirrels In mass relocating there hidden food supply's form the ground to there nests yesterday and today before the rain. Going to turn up some earth tonight outside and check worm depths and check rotten logs and do some spore prints to see what mycelium fruiting bodies are emerging and scope some hyphae if I find time. I need good winters to and storms to Hone this stuff in. I realize no one cares one shit about what I have to say but thats ok I love you guys anyways this year. :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flatheadsickness Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 21 minutes ago, Voyager said: It's been an extremely boring day/week/month. I haven't worked since 12/19 due to the charter bus business being highly seasonal (which I never knew until I got in), and the whole company being closed from 12/23 to 1/6. It's very frustrating not working, and I'm really wishing I'd have stayed in trucking. Sorry for being a bit "ornery" today... Not working will get any man down. Sorry to here that. I think that guys her like you plenty enough your venting here will be welcomed by them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 8 minutes ago, Flatheadsickness said: I noticed squirrels In mass relocating there hidden food supply's form the ground to there nests yesterday and today before the rain. Going to turn up some earth tonight outside and check worm depths and check rotten logs and do some spore prints to see what mycelium fruiting bodies are emerging and scope some hyphae if I find time. I need good winters to and storms to Hone this stuff in. I realize no one cares one shit about what I have to say but thats ok I love you guys anyways this year. Not that we don’t care.... Just have no friggin clue what your talkin bout pal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 My internet has been down all day. Suppose to be back up tomorrow morning. I hate when that happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 The 18z GEFS still looks good for Saturday snow. We have seen this countless times, where models have a “mid range crisis” 4 or 5 days out from a storm, only to then go back to what they had originally from longer range. Heck, even last weeks snow storm, the Euro had going strongly into the lakes, while the GFS was south & east. Then, in the short range, our snow event came back together. Hopefully the Euro gets back on board by tomorrow. Here is that 18z GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 1 hour ago, Flatheadsickness said: I noticed squirrels In mass relocating there hidden food supply's form the ground to there nests yesterday and today before the rain. Going to turn up some earth tonight outside and check worm depths and check rotten logs and do some spore prints to see what mycelium fruiting bodies are emerging and scope some hyphae if I find time. I need good winters to and storms to Hone this stuff in. I realize no one cares one shit about what I have to say but thats ok I love you guys anyways this year. I need somebody to quote my response to this. I'm turning my phone down for a bit to get higher than giraffe snatch and **** *want*, I *need* to read about mycelium fruiting bodies and worm depths high off my ass because that's probably the only way I will EVER understand what the **** you just said. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 9 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: I need somebody to quote my response to this. I'm turning my phone down for a bit to get higher than giraffe snatch and **** *want*, I *need* to read about mycelium fruiting bodies and worm depths high off my ass because that's probably the only way I will EVER understand what the **** you just said. What’s funny is that’s it’s probably legit, and I’m too dumb to know better. Ok....back to storm stuff. 0zs incoming and they are the most important run since.... the 18zs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 The 18z EPS improved slightly from 12z today. Hopefully 0z tonight treats us well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flatheadsickness Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 1 hour ago, Atomixwx said: I need somebody to quote my response to this. I'm turning my phone down for a bit to get higher than giraffe snatch and **** *want*, I *need* to read about mycelium fruiting bodies and worm depths high off my ass because that's probably the only way I will EVER understand what the **** you just said. Well the good news would be then its to wet to get a good spore prints tonight for good identification . Worms needs a in a consistent environment to be much use meaning that out doors I would already expect them to be at surface levels with the ground already being wet and plenty warm enough for worms. If it were dry and cooled I would expect them to be deep depending on species or sub species but how deep depends on how cold it will get and possibly how well the ground will get insulated there are other factors like carbon and nitrate levels (food sorces) that play. I believe there are specific fruiting mycelium that use the snow to move spores and second and to provide chilling hours to the insure spores early spring emergence. Mycelium is the in Layman's terms is the mushroom root the mushroom is the fruit and the mushroom hyphae is a individual root if root is what I am going to call it for now. Mycelium matts are the largest living organisms on the planet some colonies sutures have been found lager that road island and are almost in complete control of there ecosystem and as a collective has as much influence on the weather as do the trees . The trees and Mycelium are as symbiotic as it can get. Mycelium makes the co2 for trees and trees make the o2 for everything . The mycelium plays a huge part in chelation of elements through enzymatic digestion and serves as a transport system to get the chelated elements to the trees. In turn the tree rootsalso has some enzymatic magic to feed the mycelium. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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