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December 15-17 Snow Potential


Hoosier
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1 minute ago, Hoosier said:

Not exactly a pillar of consistency in the last few runs.  Wonder if we will see a dramatic north distribution with the EPS again.

Oh I agree, all the models at this point are completely inconsistent. This is now the 3rd or 4th year in a row where we have had some what consistent models up to day 4-5, then model chaos for 2 days before converging back in the 48-72hr range. There is some issue in all the models collectively and my guess is with systems being in a data hole.

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2 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Oh I agree, all the models at this point are completely inconsistent. This is now the 3rd or 4th year in a row where we have had some what consistent models up to day 4-5, then model chaos for 2 days before converging back in the 48-72hr range. There is some issue in all the models collectively and my guess is with systems being in a data hole.

Agree with this.

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3 minutes ago, Thundersnow12 said:

18z NAM looks pretty darn good if you take away it's usual low level dry air issues. Have a hard time believing that with weak NW sfc flow much of Sunday and when it turns easterly it's still weak. Not one of those true NE fetches of dry air. 

Yea 18z nam looks good for a good portion of this forum. Nice WAA band. Curious to see if 18z gfs nudges north. 3km nam and 12km nam both looked nice

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DTX AFD

Quote

Forecast complexity increases considerably for early next week and
confidence drops off accordingly. NWP have characteristically
bounced around the location of the polar low over northern Canada,
its location sensitive to the behavior of and interaction with the
adjacent closed high over northern Alaska. Further complicating
matters will be the cyclonic wave break resulting from the
developing New England cyclone which will force additional ridging
into the high latitudes and introduce further uncertainty to the
large scale pattern over Canada. Since both the CMC and NCEP
ensembles are demonstrating sensitivity to the relatively low
amplitude development sequence as it occurs at the interface of the
incoming Pacific energy and the confluent wave guide anchored over
Canada both will be sensitive to this process as it unfolds. The
ECMWF likewise demonstrates some uncharacteristic waffling during
this period as its solution space remains sensitive to the same
factors. The 12z ECMWF provides a good illustration as 400mb PV
analysis reveals that subtle changes in the flow result in greater
wave separation (centered over the Dakotas) occuring Monday. The
more progressive northern stream then suppresses the front to the
south resulting in a muted frontal snow late Monday night or Tuesday
morning. Surprisingly, the UKMET resides on the opposite end of the
spectrum allowing snow to develop as early as Sunday night as the
front lifts toward Michigan. An outcome ranging anywhere from 1 to 5
inches, highest near the Ohio border, is plausible attm. Amounts
will be highly conditional on onset time which remains the greatest
source of uncertainty at this time.

 

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18z op GFS is drier than popcorn fart, but it doesn't compare to the GEFS which is on a whole much better with more moisture except for one ensemble. Although as someone noted the other day it isn't comparing apples to apples because the physical scheme of the GEFS hasn't been updated like the operational.

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31 minutes ago, Stebo said:

18z op GFS is drier than popcorn fart, but it doesn't compare to the GEFS which is on a whole much better with more moisture except for one ensemble. Although as someone noted the other day it isn't comparing apples to apples because the physical scheme of the GEFS hasn't been updated like the operational.

Which is why you gotta favor the GEFS over the horrible Fv3

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28 minutes ago, Thundersnow12 said:

18z Euro wetter and pretty nice jump north. 3” in western chi burbs.

Ensemble/blended approach is definitely the way to go for now and was the basis of my first call, when what I would call the "range of plausibility" around here is very little to upwards of 6".  You know it is a tricky setup when it's got the Euro bouncing around, though admittedly I haven't paid enough attention to off hour Euro runs since they began to know if this is a particularly unusual amount of waffling.  After all, running a model 4 times instead of twice per day is going to provide more opportunities for flip flopping.

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