Rtd208

E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2019/2020 OBS Thread

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Aside from some flurries Wednesday, next period that is piquing my interest is Dec 11-Dec 16. Looks like the EPO ridge holds, PNA tries to spike, split flow returns out West, stj is active, and the PV is nearby. Hints of blocking at HL on the Atl side across the ens means. Any poor looks continue to remain at day 10 and no closer....a very encouraging sign. Even more encouraging are the ens backing off on the not so great looks and beginning to prolong the promising PAC look. Need to move on from today's debacle. 

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1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

This doesnt have a warm Dec look to it. Ens are somewhat on board with something similar tho not quite as extreme as this GFS op. 

gfs_T850a_us_41.png

Looks cold AND dry

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13 hours ago, hazwoper said:

Looks cold AND dry

Agreed. But get the cold established first then try and time a disturbance with the cold as it begins to retreat. Usually how we score around here anyway. Ens have been hinting at this scenario for a few days now which is why I am somewhat interested in the period centered around the 14th (Dec 11-17). Cant get any more specific but tellies look promising during the period and BN 2m temps are being signaled across the board. Might even see some stj energy coming out of the SW. Couldn't ask for more during Dec for now....a month that many folks had pegged for warm and uneventful.

Next 10 days look to avg normal to BN temps outside of 1 maybe 2 days of pre arctic fropa return flow from the S/SW where it will be AN and in the 50s. AO will go negative and the PNA spikes. EPO ridge grows via the aid of the Aleutian low and AN heights migrating over the N Pole from old Western Russia. Some ridging also develops near Greenland but may be transient as it appears smoothed over by 10 on the ens so there is clearly some disagreement there as to whether it has staying power. 

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Not yet in my NWS forecast but keep an eye on tomorrow AM...expect squalls to make it at least into Western Chester County and maybe all the way to the coast. May get more tomorrow (easy to do with just a coating from yesterday) than our 1st little winter event...something to watch for...

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Going forward, while the pattern doesn't look hostile and all out torchy, it still looks like the favored storm track is going to be west. Good to see plenty of cold air around though, and the calls for an above normal December look to be in serious trouble.  +NAO showing no signs of breaking(except maybe briefly in the day 10 range) but neither does the -EPO/+PNA. Could see some battleground events where N and W does well and the coastal plain changes over unless we get a really well timed event where everyone can do well. I'm pretty optimistic that we can get at least 1 measurable event this month with all of the cold air around even if it is a changeover event. I'll take this pattern over one that has zero chance to produce but hopefully going forward we get a pattern more conducive to all snow events.

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Still eyeing the window centered around the 14th give or take 2 days either side for our next potential threat. Tellies in the PAC and AO regions are favorable...Atl side is meh but workable. Stj gets active and now the ops are beginning to show some specific systems in the time. PV sideswipes the region with moisture trying to attack the CAD that has been established. To phase or not to phase and timing/temp issues obviously. Way out there but something to watch as ens and now ops beginning to wake up. Here's the 6z GFS take. Mind you the euro is amped in Ohio so keep expectations in check for now. GfS has that same OV low. Without a true N Atl/Greenland block this setup is going to be difficult to force the slp off the coast. Favors more of a CAD to start thump to mix/rain scenario.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_41.png

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_43.png

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19 hours ago, RedSky said:

GFS long range is nothing but a random fantasy, euro is too but at least it's a slightly better one

 

Actually the GFS implies better chances and I cant speak for the ops but the LR (which you are referring to?) GEFS has outperformed the EPS by a decent margin recently fwiw. I wouldnt bother looking beyond Day 8 tbh unless you are trying to get very general clues in the overall pattern. The Euro in particular has been not so hot in the day 7-10 range recently. 

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1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Actually the GFS implies better chances and I cant speak for the ops but the LR (which you are referring to?) GEFS has outperformed the EPS by a decent margin recently fwiw. I wouldnt bother looking beyond Day 8 tbh unless you are trying to get very general clues in the overall pattern. The Euro in particular has been not so hot in the day 7-10 range recently. 

Yeah the models in general are only good for showing there is potential for a synoptic event in that time frame. Relying on details is futile since there are usually changes in events that are in the day 4-7 range that can make significant changes to the outcome of the next storm. Especially with how fast the flow is right now due to no blocking. I don't trust the models at all past day 4- 5 right now since small errors in timing can have big consequences for an event. Even in the day 4-5 range, we've already seen some drastic changes this season. Just look at this past Monday's storm,; the models were changing with every run right up to the storm beginning, and they were pretty significant changes.

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