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Rtd208

E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2019/2020 OBS Thread

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Keeping an eye on what I'm already dubbing The Iceman's Birthday Storm. Fun fact, in the 28(about to be 29) years I've been alive, it has never snowed on Dec. 17th > 1inch in my backyard. Can this year break the streak? 12z Euro gives us a really nice thump to ice to rain back to snow which would be a good hit for this time of the year. We really aren't going to get a good read on this storm until this weekend because this weekend's storm sets the table for this event.  Expect a bunch of changes in the coming days. Definitely best looking threat we've had this year though.

 

 

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.png

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Mild last third of December is gaining favor due to Pacific influence. Seems like as the years accumulate that segment of December has a 70% chance of being non wintry, shouldn't we start naming it the December thaw? Makes more sense than January.

 

 

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4 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Mild last third of December is gaining favor due to Pacific influence. Seems like as the years accumulate that segment of December has a 70% chance of being non wintry, shouldn't we start naming it the December thaw? Makes more sense than January.

 

 

Yeah looking like the WAA thump on Tuesday is our best shot of anything frozen in the next 2 weeks. Figures that as soon as we get the Atlantic to cooperate with a -NAO and -AO, the pacific decides to go to garbage muting all of the atlantic's positives. Frustrating start. Have to hope that PAC air invasion is transient... Otherwise another winter of azz is on tap.

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1 hour ago, The Iceman said:

Yeah looking like the WAA thump on Tuesday is our best shot of anything frozen in the next 2 weeks. Figures that as soon as we get the Atlantic to cooperate with a -NAO and -AO, the pacific decides to go to garbage muting all of the atlantic's positives. Frustrating start. Have to hope that PAC air invasion is transient... Otherwise another winter of azz is on tap.

Should be a period of moderation coming between middle of next week and the last few days of the month. Not completely sold on a full blown and extended torch but yes we were just discussing this someqhere else irt how we cant get both the Atl and Pac sides to play nice together for the last almost decade it seems. We can still score events with just one side working but it is usually something that shows up on guidance under 4 days. This current pattern and where we may be headed should be viewed cautiously as models are flipping around with forecast looks under 5 days lately. Nailing down the pattern developments past day 8 so far this year has been a very low confidence venture with what seems to be complete 180s at times irt key teleconnections. The Pac specifically has hinted at west coast troffing only to see monster EPO ridges appear a few times already. All signs do appear headed for some moderation but I'm not completely sold on it. These torch looks have been muted and pushed back time and time again thus far.  

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Qbo argues for a -nao winter and the Alaska warm pool argues for a western North American ridge. It would be nice if we get extended periods of the two working in tandem but hopefully at the very least if we lose either the pac or the atl the other side will prevent a full on extended torch. 

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1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Should be a period of moderation coming between middle of next week and the last few days of the month. Not completely sold on a full blown and extended torch but yes we were just discussing this someqhere else irt how we cant get both the Atl and Pac sides to play nice together for the last almost decade it seems. We can still score events with just one side working but it is usually something that shows up on guidance under 4 days. This current pattern and where we may be headed should be viewed cautiously as models are flipping around with forecast looks under 5 days lately. Nailing down the pattern developments past day 8 so far this year has been a very low confidence venture with what seems to be complete 180s at times irt key teleconnections. The Pac specifically has hinted at west coast troffing only to see monster EPO ridges appear a few times already. All signs do appear headed for some moderation but I'm not completely sold on it. These torch looks have been muted and pushed back time and time again thus far.  

I unlike most here are quite enthused with the pattern. I remain confident we end up with an above average snow month and January remains on path for some very interesting times IMHO. Folks sometimes forget even out here in the NW burbs - we only average 4.7" of snow in December - we have already had 1.5" of snow this month and I expect we will add to the snow total on Monday before the change to rain (I suspect it will be a slow process once N and W of I95) - watch for another winter event around Christmas and toward the New Year. Interesting times ahead....

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43 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Snow to sleet to rain Monday maybe some light accums before the change. Then maybe some snow squalls Wednesday behind the system....blustery and cold.

Correct me if I’m wrong isn’t this the type of setup we had last year, several snow to ice events

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1 hour ago, penndotguy said:

Correct me if I’m wrong isn’t this the type of setup we had last year, several snow to ice events

Every year. These events are very common and generally how the area especially in and around the city, reach their seasonal averages. All snow events are not all that common here tbh. We have been spoiled in general. 

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1 hour ago, ChescoPaWxman said:

I unlike most here are quite enthused with the pattern. 

Define "most" because we only have a few regular posters and aside from that one guy in Monmouth County ;), the regulars are pretty much in sync with the favorable pattern tellies and the background state that is emerging. 

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Awesome another big rainstorm on the 22nd. After this week on my way to my first 10" rain December. It really has a chance no joke 5" will be on the books.

 

 

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1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Define "most" because we only have a few regular posters and aside from that one guy in Monmouth County ;), the regulars are pretty much in sync with the favorable pattern tellies and the background state that is emerging. 

Come on man 5" rain by tomorrow and a nasty mild last third of December better than 50/50 chance favorable it ain't

Hopefully improvement in January still too early.

 

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1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Define "most" because we only have a few regular posters and aside from that one guy in Monmouth County ;), the regulars are pretty much in sync with the favorable pattern tellies and the background state that is emerging. 

Words of wisdom Steve....wish we had more folks on here but I truly appreciate all the peeps that do choose to post here - thanks!!

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5 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Come on man do you SEE the WEST, THAT IS NOT an east coast snow storm look, i feel like DT lol

 

There are always windows of opportunity in avg patterns especially as NAO blocks breakdown aka Archambault event. How many times have we had snow then behind the storm temps actually rise in lieu of ridging/moderation. January 2016 storm was a great example of that. I'm not saying this is an east coast snowstorm at all but the ens are showing some potential. To say no chance whatsoever as you are doing is silly. You did that during an accumulating snowfall in your area once or twice already in recent weeks. 

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Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

There are always windows of opportunity in avg patterns especially as NAO blocks breakdown aka Archambault event. How many times have we had snow then behind the storm temps actually rise in lieu of ridging/moderation. January 2016 storm was a great example of that. I'm not saying this is an easy coast snowstorm at all but the ens are showing some potential. To say no chance whatsoever as you are doing is silly. You did that during an accumulating snowfall in your area once or twice already in recent weeks. 

I said better than 50/50 never said no chance and that GFS is a garbage scow. Now if it somehow "finds" arctic high to the north which is possible then it is no longer a rain look.

Big blizzard in Jan 2016 rest of winter was a sewer plant

 

 

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18 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Come on man 5" rain by tomorrow and a nasty mild last third of December better than 50/50 chance favorable it ain't

Hopefully improvement in January still too early.

 

Actually if you look at the GEFS 2m 5-day averages thru the run, aside from the first panel the entire run is BN with 1 N panel I saw. 

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