• Member Statistics

    15,757
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    matt9503
    Newest Member
    matt9503
    Joined
Rtd208

E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2019/2020 OBS Thread

Recommended Posts

16 hours ago, RedSky said:

Stowe looks sweet found a map showing they average 100"+. Johnstown is one of the few places in the nation one can buy a nice house complete with a garage for 20k, can't buy a deck that cheap in SEPA lol

 

 

 

Are you talking about Stowe, VT or PA? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, ChasingFlakes said:

Are you talking about Stowe, VT or PA? 

Good question - Seven Springs. Never been there but for some crazy reason google maps labeled it Stowe some kind of glitch.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 hours ago, ChasingFlakes said:

Are you talking about Stowe, VT or PA? 

It must be Stowe VT. Stowe PA isn't that far away and wouldn't average 100"

RedSky, Johnstown is a complete shit-hole...

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 12/24/2019 at 12:02 AM, jwilson said:

Truthfully, I don't know much of anything about Johnstown other than the big flood happened there.

I will say being in the Laurel Highlands is a huge benefit, as you figured from the increased snow totals, though the really big winner tends to be Garrett County, Maryland.  They are constantly getting warning level events while Pittsburgh metro gets a dusting or even nothing at all.  The big ski towns like Seven Springs and Hidden Valley (near Somerset, PA) are the next best snow locales in the area.  With some places you have to be careful of microclimates.  If you're on the leeward side of a ridge or "mountain" you'll see isolated spots without much accumulation relative to the rest of the area.

I'm a "big storm" guy so for me it's a struggle.  Watching Philly get coastals while we have a high ceiling isn't ideal.  If we ever get a '93 superstorm again, though, then we're in the money!

I don't know why I haven't just moved to a ski town and gotten it over with.

 

I feel like we played this game before, notably last year.  The good pattern kept appearing in the D10 range but would just as quickly vanish.  I don't even know if I should compare the two years because I'm not sure they are analogous, but the lack of predictability now isn't my cup of tea.  I will say we seemingly had good patterns progged for Christmas, then New Year's, until we didn't, and we're high and dry.  Back to the drawing board for long range forecasters.

 

If nothing happens for the first few weeks of January then you're gonna have to punt the whole month.  I'm an end-of-January birthday and I couldn't even tell you the last time we had snow of any significance during that last week of January.  Not for as long as I've been alive.  I don't know why but it doesn't happen.

Don't worry, February will be rockin this winter, especially with the extra day due to it being a leap year, lol. Although according to my research, the most snow received on a Feb. 29th at PHL is 1 inch. Still would almost double the current total here this season so far, which is 1.3".

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, hazwoper said:

This winter sucks.  Heading to Poconos tomorrow just to get rained on.  Awful 

Im in new Hampshire where they've had 25" in December before I arrived only for it to rain and erase their entire snowpack in the 4 days that Ive been here. Supposed to snow and sleet 5-8" the day after I leave too lol :axe:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, The Iceman said:

Im in new Hampshire where they've had 25" in December before I arrived only for it to rain and erase their entire snowpack in the 4 days that Ive been here. Supposed to snow and sleet 5-8" the day after I leave too lol :axe:

Oof

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Larry Cosgrove still holding fairly strong that there won't be much change to a colder and possibly snowier pattern in his longer term outlook until the end of January. Although he did say there could be a colder period early in the new month. All is not lost but his reason for keeping the east coast on the warmer side is the ridging over Cuba and Hispaniola. Also when the pattern does become more favorable for snow in late January he once again mentions the snow chances will increase between the Continental Divide and the Appalachian Mountains but did not mention the east coast. So take it for what it is.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, ChescoPaWxman said:

Dr Joe D "former Dr. Dewpoint" at WB from today's post...

"This opens the arctic flood gates with coast to coast, border to border cold including at some point a Florida freeze threat"

Screen_Shot_2019_12_26_at_5_19_47_AM.png

That looks almost nothing like the pattern rolling forward on the ens means. Huge Pac ridge N of Hawaii is the dealbreaker. We can still get lucky and back into some snow as prime climo nears, but if the means looks hold, we will be struggling to see any 'sustained' wintry patterns. Like I mentioned a while back, likely a roller coaster/topsy turvy winter with no real sustained + or - but somehow we will end up around avg or just above in snowfall by the end of the season. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
19 hours ago, RedSky said:

Non-weather related but has any but checked out the fading Betelgeuse in Orion?

 

I tried taking a peek last night, but there were some high, thin clouds overhead so I didn't get a good look. Sounds like nothing will happen in our lifetime, but I'd love to see a supernova before my time is up. I remember there was one in 1987, but it was only visible in the southern hemisphere.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

As of 8:30 pm, Allentown had picked up 0.10" rain for the day. That brought total precipitation for 2019 to 60.00". As a result, 2019 became the second consecutive year during which Allentown had picked up 60.00" or more annual precipitation. Last year's figure was 66.96". This is the first time on record that Allentown has had two consecutive years with 60.00" or more precipitation. Records go back to 1901.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

All this moisture is almost too much of a good thing (from a theoretical perspective).  Despite the wet years, it hasn't translated into more snow.

It is rare for all the teleconnections to align for positive outcomes.  Likewise, it simply becomes a game of chance (or only a matter of time) when they'll all align in the opposite direction for pure nightmare fuel.  -PNA, +AO, +NAO, poor MJO alignment.  All at once.  I don't know enough about the interrelationships and atmospheric science, but I feel like it is bound to happen eventually.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 hours ago, ChescoPaWxman said:

Dr Joe D "former Dr. Dewpoint" at WB from today's post...

"This opens the arctic flood gates with coast to coast, border to border cold including at some point a Florida freeze threat"

Screen_Shot_2019_12_26_at_5_19_47_AM.png

Just to add to this and I am by no means an expert on the solar min or the QBO but in the small amount of research and reading on the subject, there is generally a lag time. So while the chart.you posted may in fact fit the look after solar min, keep in mind we arent forecast to arrive there until April-ish which if you factor in lag time makes that map more probable for winter 20-21 and not the current season. 

Right now we need to start seeing blocking in the NAO and AO regions to counter that massive central Pac ridge which is driving the pattern downstream into the US. A west coast trof / -pna with a developing SE ridge and no ao/nao help is one of the worst looks we can get. Let's hope in a few weeks things start to progress.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

December 30th...maybe we can track some t-storms instead. The line looks a little more consolidated on the 12z NAM than it currently does on the HRRR.  

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
34 minutes ago, JTA66 said:

December 30th...maybe we can track some t-storms instead. The line looks a little more consolidated on the 12z NAM than it currently does on the HRRR.  

Would be nice to track some 60 degree temps too over the next 6 weeks or so for some Wiggum snows. 93% success rate when the temp hits 60 in Doylestown between waning days of Dec thru Valentines Day we see some snow within the next 5 days following. 

This pattern is boring quite honestly. I thought the Pac puke pattern would be transient and the Jan 6 period would be the end of it. Looks like I am going to fail on the transient look as signs point to the puke redeveloping with the central Pac ridge anchoring and driving things downstream. But who knows really? These same ens did this last year in the LR promising an epic pattern only to keep it 2 weeks away until March. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, RedSky said:

Early snow/big cold and middle eastern blizzards gain credence as bad omens.

 

 

 

 

You might be on to something. You should do independent research and write a thesis. Who knows....Nobel peace prize?? 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I hope this post can be bump trolled but it looks like January is a complete punt at this point. Nothing at all worth tracking except cutters and AN temps. Have to hope things start to improve in the LR in the next week...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

When it comes to winter in this region the hardest thing to do is get a great Dec 15-Jan 15 stretch. I fail to understand why it remains mission impossible, odds would say it happens every several years.

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   1 member