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Rtd208

E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2019/2020 OBS Thread

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8 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Just had an emergency alert wake me for a snow squall warning. That's a new one. Looked outside and whiteout conditions. Good stuff. 

LOL...I just got that alert 6 minutes ago :wacko:

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Last 24 hours have been a complete disaster in the long range. No end in sight of the PAC trough on the GEFS and it's gotten worse every run since 12z yesterday matching the EPS. I had a feeling the GEFS was being too quick in breaking down the PAC, just have to hope the idea comes back in the coming days so that we are back in the game by mid January.  I think this ratter pattern would sting a lot less if Dec.1-2nd didn't bust horribly around here.  But man, just not a whole lot of positives to talk about for at minimum the next 2(and likely 3) weeks. 

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Well if I can't have Dec snow I'll take 40's and sunny!!  

Cold winter's rain is really depressing.

Did you guys catch the vid of the snow squall going over NYC yesterday?  It was pretty cool.  Last winter I believe was my 1st squall warning.

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3 hours ago, The Iceman said:

Last 24 hours have been a complete disaster in the long range. No end in sight of the PAC trough on the GEFS and it's gotten worse every run since 12z yesterday matching the EPS. I had a feeling the GEFS was being too quick in breaking down the PAC, just have to hope the idea comes back in the coming days so that we are back in the game by mid January.  I think this ratter pattern would sting a lot less if Dec.1-2nd didn't bust horribly around here.  But man, just not a whole lot of positives to talk about for at minimum the next 2(and likely 3) weeks. 

Spoke too soon? Did you see the latest EPS? Big steps in the right direction. Matches the tellie indices from CPC that look favorable. Definitely a meh pattern for the next 10 days but I dont think we are in a close the blinds pattern either headed into early January. Doubt we wait 3 weeks but 12-15 days is possible. I'm still having a tough time trusting ens means past 10 days given last year's debacle as well as the flops within 8 days this fall and early met winter. 

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2 hours ago, The Iceman said:

funny enough, if you look at the AO, NAO, and PNA forecasts on the NCEP page, you'd think we're heading in the right direction.

 

ao.sprd2.gif

 

nao.sprd2.gif

 

pna.sprd2.gif

 

 

I see nothing alarming there at all. Neutral look 'at worst' on all 3 moving ahead. The PAC is in a reload and will be meh for a week-10 days before the Aleutian low starts reestablishing and begins pumping an EPO ridge again. Not buying the TPV shifting to Santa's neighborhood and anchoring itself... not given what is happening at the Strat level with the pummeling of the SPV and squeeze play going on. And dont look now but we are seeing signals for a SWE specifically over Siberia starting in the medium range. I'm not an expert on how the strat and trop interact but I do know that when the SPV is under stress and/or there is warming over Siberia it is less likely for the TPV to strengthen and anchor itself over the N Pole as one entity. 

My honest feel moving forward? Enjoy this break....the pattern reload/relax....the holidays....family, friends, and a nice break from tracking (hasn't amounted to much but has been active since mid Nov). When the reload is complete in early January things are going be active and cold with plenty of tracking. 

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24 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I see nothing alarming there at all. Neutral look 'at worst' on all 3 moving ahead. The PAC is in a reload and will be meh for a week-10 days before the Aleutian low starts reestablishing and begins pumping an EPO ridge again. Not buying the TPV shifting to Santa's neighborhood and anchoring itself... not given what is happening at the Strat level with the pummeling of the SPV and squeeze play going on. And dont look now but we are seeing signals for a SWE specifically over Siberia starting in the medium range. I'm not an expert on how the strat and trop interact but I do know that when the SPV is under stress and/or there is warming over Siberia it is less likely for the TPV to strengthen and anchor itself over the N Pole as one entity. 

My honest feel moving forward? Enjoy this break....the pattern reload/relax....the holidays....family, friends, and a nice break from tracking (hasn't amounted to much but has been active since mid Nov). When the reload is complete in early January things are going be active and cold with plenty of tracking. 

Appreciate your analysis.  I agree on not being ready to cancel winter, but these slow starts lately can be discouraging.

I come back to Philly for the holidays each year and it has been quite a long time since we've had snow around Christmas or New Year's.  At least from what my brain will let me remember.  Last year especially (among others) have been cold, even brutally so, but also dry in recent history.  One of these years we might see December return.  I assume it's only a short-term episode and not something longer term (or permanent) attributable to climactic or environmental shifts.

On the western side of the state, March has out-performed December in six of the last eight years despite long-term averages favoring December for now.

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44 minutes ago, jwilson said:

Appreciate your analysis.  I agree on not being ready to cancel winter, but these slow starts lately can be discouraging.

I come back to Philly for the holidays each year and it has been quite a long time since we've had snow around Christmas or New Year's.  At least from what my brain will let me remember.  Last year especially (among others) have been cold, even brutally so, but also dry in recent history.  One of these years we might see December return.  I assume it's only a short-term episode and not something longer term (or permanent) attributable to climactic or environmental shifts.

On the western side of the state, March has out-performed December in six of the last eight years despite long-term averages favoring December for now.

Question how much snow does your area average? I was looking into the Johnstown/Altoona region they get around 65-70" if what I have found is accurate.

 

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Latest ens means 500mb pattern all in agreement now that the PAC puke pattern will be brief and a return to a favorable Atl then subsequently the PAC which (hopefully) will follow all begins to shift within 7-10 days.

I apologize for the piss-poor artwork but key points here are the return and repeating of the Aleutian low and 50/50 low (red circles). Lower pressures in the stj with steering currents marked in black below ridging in Southern Canada. Magenta arrows showing ridging in the N Atl repeatedly moving into Scandinavia then back into the NAO region and in the West the looks of the EPO ridge trying to start rebuilding. If this background state reestablished we should also see a return to the split flow out West which we have seen more often than not since late October. Pac is ok, none of it is perfect or epic. But this overall look as we finish out the holidays is a nice step in the right direction if you are a fan of winter.

20191220_160354.png

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24 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Noticing the glancing cold shot with staying power, the theme of Nov-Dec has been over performing cold.

 

Much prefer glancing cold shots over the PV diving into the OV. Later in mid Feb to late March that is fine, but often times all that accomplishes this time of year is to suppress the storm track and be dry and frigid cold. Also tends to moderate then have to reload the cold. You can argue that on the backside of a PV visit we can get a storm but more times than not we are looking at stale cold and a thump to blech situation. Not that I would kick any snow to the curb....just prefer the consistent glancing cold waves over one singular polar plunge.

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On 12/19/2019 at 6:50 PM, RedSky said:

Question how much snow does your area average? I was looking into the Johnstown/Altoona region they get around 65-70" if what I have found is accurate.

 

Pittsburgh metro averages 41" or so each year.  Almost all of that is nickel and dime stuff.  We get weak lake-enhanced squalls (relative to the actual lake areas like Erie), clippers, etc.  Think 10-20 events of 1-3" over the winter.  Storms of more than 6" are actually quite rare, and there hasn't been a storm greater than 8" since 2010.  Too far west for Miller B's, warm-tongue microclimate (due to geographic relation to mountains) that can result in rain for Miller A's.  I realize the seasonal average is double that of Philly's so it sounds great, but really, as a snow lover I am not at all impressed.

 

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1 hour ago, jwilson said:

Pittsburgh metro averages 41" or so each year.  Almost all of that is nickel and dime stuff.  We get weak lake-enhanced squalls (relative to the actual lake areas like Erie), clippers, etc.  Think 10-20 events of 1-3" over the winter.  Storms of more than 6" are actually quite rare, and there hasn't been a storm greater than 8" since 2010.  Too far west for Miller B's, warm-tongue microclimate (due to geographic relation to mountains) that can result in rain for Miller A's.  I realize the seasonal average is double that of Philly's so it sounds great, but really, as a snow lover I am not at all impressed.

 

Sounds like damn near medieval torture for those who like snow, and a place I am destined for happy happy joy joy. But I am guessing since Johnstown being a mountain town that averages 25" more than Pittsburgh it partly offsets the lack of big ones?

 

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Not tons of support for it but worth mentioning the period around Dec 30 when the pattern transition is underway has some potential. GFS showed it, Euro hinted at it (both trended towards phase in Plains=cutter), and now the GGEM is showing the northern jet steamrolling thru and leaving a stj sw behind that forms a slp and comes N. Verbatim the 850 low rides under us and is textbook track:

 

P6_GZ_D5_PN_228_0000.gif

TT_GZ_UU_VV_228_0850.gif

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For those that didn't read Larry Cosgroves weekly newsletter he basically stated that between January 1st thru about the 23rd he likes the euro weeklies with a "washed out" cold look with snow potential being good for the Great Plains, Midwest and Great Lakes. He did say winter will eventually get here but the I-95 cities may have to wait longer which to me means we may not see any appreciable winter weather until the second half of January which is in line with what some others are thinking. Honestly it wouldn't surprise me if we don't see much of anything substantial until the last week of January. If that is the case lets hope good things come to those who wait. We'll see.

 

Disclaimer: Not saying this is how things will play out but it is a possibility.

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1 hour ago, The Iceman said:

The descent towards "March will be rocking" has begun. :lol: 

I saw that too. Looks like a period of unfavorable tellies are projected. Cant always count on anything past day 10 tho. Some of the other subs have already begun cancelling winter. Not even Christmas yet lol.

Eta: seems like we are on a 2 day cycle where for 2 days the extended looks bitterly cold and wintry with good tellies then for 2 days the extended is for torchy and no winter in sight. I dont think these forecasts can be counted on. We are in for a wild ride with swings all over the place is how I am seeing it and as recent history shows later in the season is probably when we have out best setups.

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And right on cue GEFS flip the PV from Alaska over to Hudson Bay and a more workable look overall. Euro has a coastal storm NYE that just misses us. I'm telling ya, the 2 day rule....flips and flops. In this setup is when a storm sneaks in under 4 days is how we get our snow. Roller coaster ride ftmfw

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On 12/20/2019 at 11:52 PM, RedSky said:

Sounds like damn near medieval torture for those who like snow, and a place I am destined for happy happy joy joy. But I am guessing since Johnstown being a mountain town that averages 25" more than Pittsburgh it partly offsets the lack of big ones?

 

Truthfully, I don't know much of anything about Johnstown other than the big flood happened there.

I will say being in the Laurel Highlands is a huge benefit, as you figured from the increased snow totals, though the really big winner tends to be Garrett County, Maryland.  They are constantly getting warning level events while Pittsburgh metro gets a dusting or even nothing at all.  The big ski towns like Seven Springs and Hidden Valley (near Somerset, PA) are the next best snow locales in the area.  With some places you have to be careful of microclimates.  If you're on the leeward side of a ridge or "mountain" you'll see isolated spots without much accumulation relative to the rest of the area.

I'm a "big storm" guy so for me it's a struggle.  Watching Philly get coastals while we have a high ceiling isn't ideal.  If we ever get a '93 superstorm again, though, then we're in the money!

I don't know why I haven't just moved to a ski town and gotten it over with.

 

14 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I saw that too. Looks like a period of unfavorable tellies are projected. Cant always count on anything past day 10 tho. Some of the other subs have already begun cancelling winter. Not even Christmas yet lol.

Eta: seems like we are on a 2 day cycle where for 2 days the extended looks bitterly cold and wintry with good tellies then for 2 days the extended is for torchy and no winter in sight. I dont think these forecasts can be counted on. We are in for a wild ride with swings all over the place is how I am seeing it and as recent history shows later in the season is probably when we have out best setups.

I feel like we played this game before, notably last year.  The good pattern kept appearing in the D10 range but would just as quickly vanish.  I don't even know if I should compare the two years because I'm not sure they are analogous, but the lack of predictability now isn't my cup of tea.  I will say we seemingly had good patterns progged for Christmas, then New Year's, until we didn't, and we're high and dry.  Back to the drawing board for long range forecasters.

 

22 hours ago, Rtd208 said:

For those that didn't read Larry Cosgroves weekly newsletter he basically stated that between January 1st thru about the 23rd he likes the euro weeklies with a "washed out" cold look with snow potential being good for the Great Plains, Midwest and Great Lakes. He did say winter will eventually get here but the I-95 cities may have to wait longer which to me means we may not see any appreciable winter weather until the second half of January which is in line with what some others are thinking. Honestly it wouldn't surprise me if we don't see much of anything substantial until the last week of January. If that is the case lets hope good things come to those who wait. We'll see.

 

Disclaimer: Not saying this is how things will play out but it is a possibility.

If nothing happens for the first few weeks of January then you're gonna have to punt the whole month.  I'm an end-of-January birthday and I couldn't even tell you the last time we had snow of any significance during that last week of January.  Not for as long as I've been alive.  I don't know why but it doesn't happen.

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