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NYCSNOWMAN2020

WINTER 2019/2020 BANTER

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1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

It should be noted that 1960 was experiencing strong blocking at this time and that blocking would continue into March at which time the blizzard took place. In contrast, the AO is at extreme positive values and may approach or reach the record set earlier this month in coming days. Unlike in 1960, the cold is far less expansive in the Northern Hemisphere. Even if a mechanism to bring it into the CONUS and then hold it there were available, which seems unlikely, one would not be dealing with the kind of widespread cold that defined March 1960 in the CONUS.

February-1960-February-2020.jpg

Here's how things progressed in 1960:

Feb-Mar-1960.jpg

None of the guidance shows cold of the expanse and magnitude shown during the second half of February, much less over a two week period.

At this point, especially with the current pattern and forecast ensembles, calls for extreme cold on a scale of March 1960 should be viewed with a great deal of skepticism. Extremes, by definition, are low probability events. When no clear variables for producing them are currently visible or available in the guidance, their absence should raise significant "red flags."

 

Agreed Don, but will say that we are experiencing extremes right now....again, spring like weather with flowers blooming and insects flying around outside....and grass that has remained green ( some of which is growing ) and herbs and wild plants that are green and growing. I'd call that extreme. This should be our best time of year for snow. 

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These are my predictions for the big upcoming snowstorm, and they are in the banter because i had a dream this snowstorm happened so it is purely for entertainment purposes. Boston 18 inches, New York City 10 inches philly 3 inches

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55 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

These are my predictions for the big upcoming snowstorm, and they are in the banter because i has a dream this snowstorm happened so it is purely for entertainment purposes. Boston 18 inches, New York City 10 inches philly 3 inches

“To sleep: perchance to dream: ay there’s the rub; as always .......

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52 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

These are my predictions for the big upcoming snowstorm, and they are in the banter because i has a dream this snowstorm happened so it is purely for entertainment purposes. Boston 18 inches, New York City 10 inches philly 3 inches

If for entertainment only why even include Boston?

Go with something along the lines of the February 25-26 2010 storm. I had 35 inches from that storm, Hunter mountain had close to 60 inches, NYC 20.9 inches and Boston had rain almost the entire storm along with most of New England including Vermont. Now that was a fantasy storm come to life.

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31 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

If for entertainment only why even include Boston?

Go with something along the lines of the February 25-26 2010 storm. I had 35 inches from that storm, Hunter mountain had close to 60 inches, NYC 20.9 inches and Boston had rain almost the entire storm along with most of New England including Vermont. Now that was a fantasy storm come to life.

2/25/10 was significant for me but not crippling like just west. I had 10” or so after a ton of rain. I remember it more for wind which foreshadowed the March 80mph wind beast that knocked trees down everywhere. 

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i always say this but that storm was a few degrees way from being 3' for the metro 

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21 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

If for entertainment only why even include Boston?

Go with something along the lines of the February 25-26 2010 storm. I had 35 inches from that storm, Hunter mountain had close to 60 inches, NYC 20.9 inches and Boston had rain almost the entire storm along with most of New England including Vermont. Now that was a fantasy storm come to life.

That storm was the retrogading storm

4 inches in the morning then turned to rain and then 14 inches at night with thundersnow  .

The gradient was insane between central park and LI.

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2 hours ago, forkyfork said:

i always say this but that storm was a few degrees way from being 3' for the metro 

and the March storms could have been big, but the trapped airmass became too stale/warm to support snow....

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10 hours ago, jm1220 said:

2/25/10 was significant for me but not crippling like just west. I had 10” or so after a ton of rain. I remember it more for wind which foreshadowed the March 80mph wind beast that knocked trees down everywhere. 

Only managed 8 here. Every storm that winter skirted my area. But was still epic by this years standards; the 12/09 storm gave us 10, 2/6 gave us 3, 2/10 gave us 11, 2/26 gave us 8. Though some sources in nearby towns had12-13.  I didn't measure. Who really cares right?

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                                                ITS COMING!
 

The geese have spoken and the dream will make the snowfall records broken

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3 hours ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

                                                ITS COMING!
 

The geese have spoken and the dream will make the snowfall records broken

Agree

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I will be looking forward to the snow pics from the south. I forgot what snow looks like.

Nice pictures in the upstate NY thread. Lake effect is cranking. 

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10 hours ago, weatherpruf said:

Only managed 8 here. Every storm that winter skirted my area. But was still epic by this years standards; the 12/09 storm gave us 10, 2/6 gave us 3, 2/10 gave us 11, 2/26 gave us 8. Though some sources in nearby towns had12-13.  I didn't measure. Who really cares right?

You really do seem to be in a black hole for snow. Any idea why and how large an area does it cover?

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1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

I will be looking forward to the snow pics from the south. I forgot what snow looks like.

Nice pictures in the upstate NY thread. Lake effect is cranking. 

Was looking at those last night, what a paradise. When I got out of college 30 odd years ago I had a nice job offer in Syracuse and I didn't take it. A chance at life in paradise and I turned it down, how less frustrating winters could have been.

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1 hour ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Was looking at those last night, what a paradise. When I got out of college 30 odd years ago I had a nice job offer in Syracuse and I didn't take it. A chance at life in paradise and I turned it down, how less frustrating winters could have been.

I feel it also. A years ago lost dream of coastal Maine. Now I wistfully remember the words of a youngster wandering the Kansas flatlands. 
“Somewhere over the rainbow bluebirds fly and the dreams that you dare to, why oh why can’t I ?” As always ......

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This is definitely the worst winter I've ever experienced in my lifetime, usually you find a way to sneak a front end thump here or there or a thread the needle storm even in awful winters. It's really looking like there will be no snow the entire month of Feburary in NYC Metro which has to be historic.

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On 2/19/2020 at 7:57 AM, NYCweatherNOW said:

These are my predictions for the big upcoming snowstorm, and they are in the banter because i had a dream this snowstorm happened so it is purely for entertainment purposes. Boston 18 inches, New York City 10 inches philly 3 inches

Its looking very unlikely those 3 cities will hit those totals for this entire winter :lol: (maybe Boston has, I'm not sure)

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15 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Its looking very unlikely those 3 cities will hit those totals for this entire winter :lol: (maybe Boston has, I'm not sure)

Boston at 15.1 on the season. I'm still ahead of them at 20.5.

The line from Albany across to Mass/NH border on north are the only spots doing okay snow wise. Everyone way above normal temp wise.

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6 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Boston at 15.1 on the season. I'm still ahead of them at 20.5.

The line from Albany across to Mass/NH border on north are the only spots doing okay snow wise. Everyone way above normal temp wise.

Yea it shows how big a difference though being a little inland makes, your bad winter is close to NYC's average

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8 hours ago, HVSnowLover said:

This is definitely the worst winter I've ever experienced in my lifetime, usually you find a way to sneak a front end thump here or there or a thread the needle storm even in awful winters. It's really looking like there will be no snow the entire month of Feburary in NYC Metro which has to be historic.

Unfortunately this winter...it has found every way not to snow ....only silver lining is next winter is almost guaranteed to be better than this one so something  to look forward to...

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7 minutes ago, NYCSNOWMAN2020 said:

Unfortunately this winter...it has found every way not to snow ....only silver lining is next winter is almost guaranteed to be better than this one so something  to look forward to...

I wouldn't be so sure of that. I thought I read that we could be facing a strong Nina next winter. That's not conducive for snow.

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Took my mini me up to Vermont this last weekend. We went out on Lake Bomoseen. Lake was totally frozen over, but not as thick as normal and definitely below average snow cover. Not as many ice fishing huts as normal. My son enjoyed experiencing winter nonetheless.

IMG_1126.jpeg

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