December 2019

[purduewx80]

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

Strong polar vortex and MJO headed for 4/5 doesn’t scream cold for the eastern US 

but but but the day 12 GFS!!

[Brian5671]

Just now, purduewx80 said:

but but but the day 12 GFS!!

Lolololol

[donsutherland1]

If the forecast teleconnections, especially the EPO and AO, on the 0z EPS and GEFS are reasonably in line with what will occur, a warmer than normal January would be favored in much or all of the East.

[SnowGoose69]

9 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Strong polar vortex and MJO headed for 4/5 doesn’t scream cold for the eastern US 

Isn’t it headed for 8?  I mean I’ve looked at nothing being on vacation but if it’s really headed for 4 or 5 DT and JB both blatantly lied on Twitter last night 

[Brian5671]

Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

Isn’t it headed for 8?  I mean I’ve looked at nothing being on vacation but if it’s really headed for 4 or 5 DT and JB both blatantly lied on Twitter last night 

It takes a brief tour in 7 and maybe 8 (low end) then heads across the COD into 4 

[bluewave]

This week was another great example of the week 2 forecasts not being able  to see the SE ridge. But you knew this would happen with such an unfavorable Pacific. 

Forecast

Verification

[SnoSki14]

With the holidays ending and the warmth upon us, I'm already longing for spring.

Luckily the days will be getting longer now. Teleconnections say we should expect AN to well AN temperatures for weeks on end. 

Do not buy the nonsense GFS week 2 forecasts, as Bluewave has posted numerous times, they always underestimate the SE ridging.

Unless the Pacific pattern completely changes, expect more of the same. 

[PB-99]

26 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

With the holidays ending and the warmth upon us, I'm already longing for spring.

Luckily the days will be getting longer now. Teleconnections say we should expect AN to well AN temperatures for weeks on end. 

Do not buy the nonsense GFS week 2 forecasts, as Bluewave has posted numerous times, they always underestimate the SE ridging.

Unless the Pacific pattern completely changes, expect more of the same. 

 

The same of what ?

 

It`s a 2 firm week break , then the cold will return.

 

The question is for how long. 

 

 

 

[PB-99]

22 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

It takes a brief tour in 7 and maybe 8 (low end) then heads across the COD into 4 

 

Careful with those RIMM plots they chase convection. 

 

The MJO will fade into 7/ 8 after week 2 then you will see where it goes from there. 

[jm1220]

43 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Lolololol

No snowstorm for St. Augustine any more like it showed a few days ago?

Like last year, I won’t be interested in anything until the MJO goes into a favorable phase and the Pacific jet quiets down. Until then we stay with the SE ridge and cutters to cold behind them. NAO blocking won’t be enough to help or it will make things worse by being positive. We’re stuck in the same raging Pacific, lousy MJO and NAO as last winter. Hopefully something can make it change soon. 

[SnoSki14]

5 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

No snowstorm for St. Augustine any more like it showed a few days ago?

Like last year, I won’t be interested in anything until the MJO goes into a favorable phase and the Pacific jet quiets down. Until then we stay with the SE ridge and cutters to cold behind them. NAO blocking won’t be enough to help or it will make things worse by being positive. We’re stuck in the same raging Pacific, lousy MJO and NAO as last winter. Hopefully something can make it change soon. 

Yeah March, given how eerily identical the pattern progression has been I'd be shocked if March/April weren't cold/wet.

[donsutherland1]

Through at least January 10, a strong AO+/EPO+ pattern possibly coupled with a generally negative SOI for some of the period appears likely.

Below is the latest GEFS 500 mb height anomalies at 360 hours:

The answer to the question for the circled area depends on whether the AO+/EPO+ pattern persists.

Here are the composite 500 mb height anomalies for January cases when the AO averaged +1.000 or above, the EPO was positive, and the SOI averaged < 0:

Those are composite monthly figures. They do not preclude a pattern change to colder. Indeed, one such case (2006-07) saw a dramatic change to colder weather. Much of the eastern half of the CONUS was colder than normal during the closing 10 days of January.

The January 22-31, 2007 average 500 mb height anomalies are below:

In sum:

- A persistent AO+/EPO+ (especially with an SOI-) pattern would favor a warm January overall in much or all of the East
- Such a pattern would not preclude a dramatic pattern change later in the month

[binbisso]

38 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

With the holidays ending and the warmth upon us, I'm already longing for spring.

Luckily the days will be getting longer now. Teleconnections say we should expect AN to well AN temperatures for weeks on end. 

Do not buy the nonsense GFS week 2 forecasts, as Bluewave has posted numerous times, they always underestimate the SE ridging.

Unless the Pacific pattern completely changes, expect more of the same. 

I must be living in a different city I agree with PB. 7 straight weeks of below normal temps above normal snowfall for half of this sub forum and now we're in a 10 day or so period of above normal temps. I mean it can't stay below normal for the whole winter we're going to go above normal for stretches. I know it sucks being around the holiday time that we warm up but what can we do. 

[PB-99]

2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Through at least January 10, a strong AO+/EPO+ pattern coupled with a generally negative SOI appears likely.

Below is the latest GEFS 500 mb height anomalies at 360 hours:

The answer to the question for the circled area depends on whether the AO+/EPO+ pattern persists.

Here are the composite 500 mb height anomalies for January cases when the AO averaged +1.000 or above, the EPO was positive, and the SOI averaged < 0:

Those are composite monthly figures. They do not preclude a pattern change to colder. Indeed, one such case (2006-07) saw a dramatic change to colder weather. Much of the eastern half of the CONUS was colder than normal during the closing 10 days of January.

The January 22-31, 2007 average 500 mb height anomalies are below:

In sum:

- A persistent AO+/EPO+ (especially with an SOI-) pattern would favor a warm January overall in much or all of the East
- Such a pattern would not preclude a dramatic pattern change later in the month

 

Don, the trough is in for 5 days before that and then the ridge axis backs up.

 

The trough drills in by the 5th 

 

 

 

And the last piece exits around the 9th 

 

You may have snowed by then. 

 

The d15 ridge is likely if the trough pulls back , but then the trough will come east again if the MJO can fade into 8.

 

There`s no S/E ridge in the 8 - 12. 

 

You have a - SOI burst, you will likely see a response on the E/C in 10 days. 

 

 

 

[binbisso]

It's also very easy to be plus two in January and above normal in snowfall just keep the pattern active

[PB-99]

Just now, binbisso said:

It's also very easy to be plus two in January and above normal in snowfall just keep the pattern active

 

The main area of concern for most here is that the mean storm path is to the lakes and then it`s cold on the backside with the vortex sitting in Canada.

These guys aren`t trading Nat Gas so they are not concerned about 5 day increments.

If it doesn`t snow plus 2 for many here may as well be plus 10. 

[doncat]

Well certainly looks wet next 10 days on euro. Upwards of 3" or so....No cold air though for that  period.

[donsutherland1]

Just now, PB-99 said:

 

Don, the trough is in for 5 days before that and then the ridge axis backs up.

 

The trough drills in by the 5th 

 

 

 

And the last piece exits around the 9th 

 

You may have snowed by then. 

 

The d15 ridge is likely if the trough pulls back , but then the trough will come east again if the MJO can fade into 8.

 

There`s no S/E ridge in the 8 - 12. 

 

You have a - SOI burst, you will likely see a response on the E/C in 10 days. 

 

 

 

Yes. That's the guidance right now. But it is somewhat disconnected with the forecast teleconnections. The MJO will certainly need to be watched closely. Hopefully, it will get into Phase 8 and stay there for some time, but a lot can change between now and 15 days. Overall, strong AO+/EPO+ patterns are warmer ones (not necessarily wall-to-wall warmth and not necessarily snowless). If the forecast teleconnections play out, one might begin to see more ridging in the Southeast, much as happened recently vs. ensemble forecasts from two weeks ago (a point Bluewave highlighted above). January 2000 was an exception to the rule concerning AO+/EPO+ January cases.

The picture should become clearer in about a week or so. But right now there is consensus on the GEFS and EPS concerning the state of the EPO and AO, though not on the 500 mb pattern or 2m temperature anomalies.

[PB-99]

6 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Yes. That's the guidance right now. But it is somewhat disconnected with the forecast teleconnections. The MJO will certainly need to be watched closely. Hopefully, it will get into Phase 8 and stay there for some time, but a lot can change between now and 15 days. Overall, strong AO+/EPO+ patterns are warmer ones (not necessarily wall-to-wall warmth and not necessarily snowless). If the forecast teleconnections play out, one might begin to see more ridging in the Southeast, much as happened recently vs. ensemble forecasts from two weeks ago (a point Bluewave highlighted above). January 2000 was an exception to the rule concerning AO+/EPO+ January cases.

The picture should become clearer in about a week or so. But right now there is consensus on the GEFS and EPS concerning the state of the EPO and AO, though not on the 500 mb pattern or 2m temperature anomalies.

 

The + AO regime portrayed now is due to the TPV sitting in W Canada, so the heights underneath are higher but not warm.

The 9 - 13 is BN for good reason, you are getting pieces of the trough to break off with short wavelengths.

 

 

Is it transient ( 4 - 5 days ) possible , the ridge out near the Aleutians is  a little too far west and doesn`t eject the low heights out of W Canada.

Any softening there will allow the negative to drain down along the Rockies and that`s what kicks the SE ridge up.

I am not even looking at day 15, I am looking closer in by day 10. 

 

Here`s your problem the ridge is too far S and not far enough E , so as it releases the trough does not drive S/E it drives due S.

 

That`s what causes the SE ridge to pop back up.

 

And it should until the MJO reaches p8 and pushes this along. 

 

 

 

[bluewave]

12 minutes ago, binbisso said:

It's also very easy to be plus two in January and above normal in snowfall just keep the pattern active

The main problem since last winter has been the unfavorable Pacific with plenty of cutter and hugger storm tracks. The temperature departures haven’t been the big issue. A cold first 3 weeks of December was only able to produce 2.5 inches of snow in NYC. Areas Inland  from the coastal plain can did much better. Even last January that went -0.1 in NYC was only able to produce 1.1 inches of snow. It’s no coincidence that the best snowfall rates this December and last January in NYC were snow squalls.

[PB-99]

Just now, bluewave said:

The main problem since last winter has been the unfavorable Pacific with plenty of cutter and hugger storm tracks. The temperature departures haven’t been the big issue. A cold first 3 weeks of December was only able to produce 2.5 inches of snow in NYC. Areas Inland    from the coastal plain can did much better. Even last January that went -0.1 in NYC was only able to produce 1.1 inches of snow. It’s no coincidence that the best snowfall rates this December and last January in NYC were snow squalls.

 

Colts Neck has 6 in December as does PSV out on Long Island, and I believe UNC in Staten Island has 4.5 , all AN.  The city was jumped twice.

Not saying it was snowy by any means and my Dec departure is plus 1 as is my Jan departure. ( Feb was always my best month ).

But the main issue is the ridge is too far west, we don`t have a fast PAC like last year and the result is the same but how we are getting there is different. 

[forkyfork]

this feels nino ish. enjoy feb and march

[SnowGoose69]

4 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

this feels nino ish. enjoy feb and march

Yeah it’s nowhere near as bad as last year with a SOI of like -100 and there being zero periods of a NAO/AO at all.  It’s likely gonna flip at some point  

[bluewave]

3 minutes ago, PB-99 said:

 

Colts Neck has 6 in December as does PSV out on Long Island, and I believe UNC in Staten Island has 4.5 , all AN.  The city was jumped twice.

Not saying it was snowy by any means and my Dec departure is plus 1 as is my Jan departure. ( Feb was always my best month ).

But the main issue is the ridge is too far west, we don`t have a fast PAC like last year and the result is the same but how we are getting there is different. 

Snowfall totals from NYC out along the South Shore of Long Island were on the low side this month. The Pacific Jet has still been very fast with the record low pressure in California and rainfall in Seattle. The mean Pacific ridge position has been stuck north of Hawaii since last winter. Maybe we need a stronger El Niño development down the line to flip the Pacific out of this stagnant pattern. But it seems like all the warm PAC SSTs west of the DL are mismatched with the  El Niño development. Those same warm WPAC SSTs amp up the MJO in the unfavorable phases.

[weatherpruf]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Yeah March, given how eerily identical the pattern progression has been I'd be shocked if March/April weren't cold/wet.

Last spring was a disaster. We were having cold, seriously cold, rains in May. I didn't plant until June, and that's really late for me. As an aside it was the best year I've ever had for sweet banana peppers, my freezer is stuffed with them. Picked em right up until the first hard frost in Nov.

[Isotherm]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

This week was another great example of the week 2 forecasts not being able  to see the SE ridge. But you knew this would happen with such an unfavorable Pacific. 

Forecast

Verification

 

 

 

In addition to your veracious comments above -- note ozone concentration propensity, which is highly reflective/comports with the mean z500 structure hemispherically. Increased ozone residence over the WPO/West EPO domains will continue to promote higher geopotential heights, whilst lower ozone concentrations in the means near the North Pole/Greenland will promote the overall +NAO paradigm maintenance, prospectively. When one considers the forthcoming AAM cycling, that too, comports with the NWP's modeled Nina-esque z500 structure in the medium term.

 

[PB-99]

12 minutes ago, Isotherm said:

 

 

 

In addition to your veracious comments above -- note ozone concentration propensity, which is highly reflective/comports with the mean z500 structure hemispherically. Increased ozone residence over the WPO/West EPO domains will continue to promote higher geopotential heights, whilst lower ozone concentrations in the means near the North Pole/Greenland will promote the overall +NAO paradigm maintenance, prospectively. When one considers the forthcoming AAM cycling, that too, comports with the NWP's modeled Nina-esque z500 structure in the medium term.

 

 

The problem is your not centering the Positive over the deepest concentration, if we did,  that Pos would be bleeding into W Canada and we would be fine.

 

The positive is setting up on the periphery out S of the Aleutians.

 

[frd]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

the mean Pacific ridge position has been stuck north of Hawaii since last winter. Maybe we need a stronger El Niño development down the line to flip the Pacific out of this stagnant pattern. But it seems like all the warm PAC SSTs west of the DL are mismatched with the  El Niño development. Those same warm WPAC SSTs amp up the MJO in the unfavorable phases.

Wondering the impacts of the declining +IOD for Feb and the first half of March.

The last update, from two days ago came in at +0.6 C. Pretty decent drop continues from October when it was 2.2 C. Hopefully this will impact the Pac forcing and eventually lead to a more traditional and assertive West Pac/date line event. 

I see you mentioned the warm WPAC SSTs and amp up of the unfavorable MJO phases. Do you feel the declining +IOD will effect this area of SSTs, or whether it might mute the effects ? 

Eric Webbs stated recently, as well as others, that we should begin to see a more favorable pattern for cold deliver into the East later in Jan.

As you know model error and forecast uncertainty reigns this early winter.  A continuation from December really.  If we can achieve a more coherent MJO progression maybe more faith can be given to the models beyond day 6. And truth be told there is more to the global drivers than just the MJO, but here I am focusing on MJO behavior. 

              

[bluewave]

31 minutes ago, frd said:

Wondering the impacts of the declining +IOD for Feb and the first half of March.

The last update, from two days ago came in at +0.6 C. Pretty decent drop continues from October when it was 2.2 C. Hopefully this will impact the Pac forcing and eventually lead to a more traditional and assertive West Pac/date line event. 

I see you mentioned the warm WPAC SSTs and amp up of the unfavorable MJO phases. Do you feel the declining +IOD will effect this area of SSTs, or whether it might mute the effects ? 

Eric Webbs stated recently, as well as others, that we should begin to see a more favorable pattern for cold deliver into the East later in Jan.

As you know model error and forecast uncertainty reigns this early winter.  A continuation from December really.  If we can achieve a more coherent MJO progression maybe more faith can be given to the models beyond day 6. And truth be told there is more to the global drivers than just the MJO, but here I am focusing on MJO behavior. 

              

Yeah, it was a steep +IOD decline over the last few weeks. This coincided with our late December warm up and mild MJO 4-6 forcing. Looks like the first few days of January have a lingering mild 6 pattern .By Jan 5h, models are producing more of a phase 7 look. This could mean a return to normal or below normal temperatures. Beyond the 5th, models are hinting at forcing returning to the Maritime Continent 4 -5 phases. Obviously, these day 11-15 forecasts have been very low skill. But my concern is that the weaker IOD influence may eventually lead to more amplified forcing in those unfavorable phases. 

 

 

 

 

[forkyfork]

30 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, it was a steep +IOD decline over the last few weeks. This coincided with our late December warm up and mild MJO 4-6 forcing. Looks like the first few days of January have a lingering mild 6 pattern .By Jan 5h, models are producing more of a phase 7 look. This could mean a return to normal or below normal temperatures. Beyond the 5th, models are hinting at forcing returning to the Maritime Continent 4 -5 phases. Obviously, these day 11-15 forecasts have been very low skill. But my concern is that the weaker IOD influence may eventually lead to more amplified forcing in those unfavorable phases. 

 

 

 

 

maybe as the wpac warm pool expands over the coming decades we can get it to reach into the favorable regions for forcing