NYCweatherNOW

December 2019

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7 hours ago, nycwinter said:

we have a politics page keep your political ramblings to that page ...

I dont see why this subject has to be political though.  

 

Anyway, I hope you all had a nice Christmas 

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After a frosty start, much of the region saw temperatures recover to the 40s.

The closing days of December will generally be warmer to occasionally much warmer than normal. Based on the latest guidance, the warmth will likely be sufficient to ensure that much of the Middle Atlantic region will wind up somewhat warmer to warmer than normal for December.

Through today, New York City's highest temperature this December is 58°, which occurred on December 10. The last December to have a monthly maximum temperature below 60° was December 2005 when the temperature peaked at 55° on December 24. However, the potential exists for the temperature to approach or reach 60° in New York City during the December 28-29 period.

Through December 24, monthly anomalies for select cities were:

Baltimore: +0.7°, Boston: +0.2°, Islip: -0.6°, New York City: -1.5°, Newark: -1.2°, Philadelphia: -0.6°, and Washington, DC: 0.0°.

Colder air could return during the first week of January. The progression of the MJO in concert with the teleconnections could be crucial in determining whether most of North America's cold air stays bottled up north of the Canada-U.S. border beyond the first week of January or it comes southward into the region shortly after the start of 2020. Transient shots of cold would be possible under the former scenario, which currently appears to be somewhat more likely than not through the first week of January. Afterward, the predominant state of the EPO will likely be crucial to the persistence of the cold.

Despite the development of a sustained colder than normal temperature regime, Utqiagvik (formerly Barrow) is nearing the end of its warmest year on record. 2019 will likely conclude with a mean temperature of 20.8°. The existing record is 18.9°, which was set in 2016. Currently, 2017 ranks as the second warmest year and 2018 ranks as the fourth warmest year.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.6°C for the week centered around December 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.12°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.56°C. The remainder of winter 2019-2020 will likely feature neutral-warm to weak El Niño conditions.

The SOI was -27.97 today. That is the lowest SOI value since November 5 when the SOI was -34.49.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -2.097.

No significant stratospheric warming event appears likely through January 3, but some warming above 3 mb is possible near the end of December. Wave 2 activity will be muted as December concludes and January begins. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold into the start of January on the EPS.

On December 24, the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.124 (RMM). The December 23-adjusted amplitude was 0.923.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 80% probability that December will wind up warmer than normal in New York City with a monthly mean temperature near 38.5°.

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The last 6 days of December are averaging 46.5degs., or about 12.5degs. AN.

Month to date is  -1.2[37.1].        December should end near  +1.4[38.9].

41* here at 6am.     40* by 8am.       47* by Noon.

All the models look like horror shows for their durations.    Let's start a contest to see which one has the fewest under 32* days or the most over 50* ones.

Time to admit the SW Event not in our favor.

The first 5-Day period with a BN average T  is centered on Jan. 08, and looks more like the PV sticking its tongue out at us, as the core of it flies by to the north.

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29° currently...Above normal high temps last few days but near average night time lows. Been dry for over a week now....still at 6.80" for month and with rain coming by Sunday late, should still finish as high as 8" for month.

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16 hours ago, weatherpruf said:

 Science absolutely helps drive public policy, and in a big way. From anti-smoking campaigns to the food pyramid to exercise recommendations and the dangers of mercury and lead paint, science drives public policy. Problem is, public policy is often too slow to implement changes in a timely fashion. For example, we know teenagers need more sleep than others, and have known this for a long time. Yet schools are only now realizing they should be starting the school day later. We also know that feeding children in school improves outcomes. Yet policy makers argue about this....absolutely no disrespect intended here, you are highly regarded for good reason in these parts. 

We still haven’t  solved the scaling up problem. That why I agree we need much more research. Even in countries like Germany where they take the subject seriously, their energy transition has stalled out. This is a much more challenging issue than any of the topics that you mentioned. Those are simple compared to climate change. That’s why it looks like our default position will be business as usual and doing the best we can to adapt.

https://www.technologyreview.com/s/610457/at-this-rate-its-going-to-take-nearly-400-years-to-transform-the-energy-system/

https://e360.yale.edu/features/carbon-crossroads-can-germany-revive-its-stalled-energy-transition

 

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Pretty big cold departure shrink in the last 4 days.

............25th...21st

EWR....-1.0....-2.1

NYC....-1.2.....-2.7

LGA....-1.2.....-2.5

JFK.....-1.4.....-2.5

ISP......-0.5....-1.4

BDR....-0.9....-2.0

89AB8539-C042-45EB-9068-CB696D260743.png.e436460bae9cca2373b9b9f59d2b9a2c.png

 

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2 hours ago, CIK62 said:

The last 6 days of December are averaging 46.5degs., or about 12.5degs. AN.

Month to date is  -1.2[37.1].        December should end near  +1.4[38.9].

41* here at 6am.     40* by 8am.

All the models look like horror shows for their durations.    Let's start a contest to see which one has the fewest under 32* days or the most over 50* ones.

Time to admit the SW Event not in our favor.

The first 5-Day period with a BN average T  is centered on Jan. 08, and looks more like the PV sticking its tongue out at us, as the core of it flies by to the north.

The warm weather is not a horror show, I just wish it didn't rain. 

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20 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

Very bleak for snow lovers like myself. Hopefully the second half of January brings us some heavy snow! Currently humid with a temperature of 39 degrees.

Models dont look bad moving forward 

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3 hours ago, bluewave said:

We still haven’t  solved the scaling up problem. That why I agree we need much more research. Even in countries like Germany where they take the subject seriously, their energy transition has stalled out. This is a much more challenging issue than any of the topics that you mentioned. Those are simple compared to climate change. That’s why it looks like our default position will be business as usual and doing the best we can to adapt.

https://www.technologyreview.com/s/610457/at-this-rate-its-going-to-take-nearly-400-years-to-transform-the-energy-system/

https://e360.yale.edu/features/carbon-crossroads-can-germany-revive-its-stalled-energy-transition

 

Hard to disagree, but in truth rather depressing.

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45 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

Very bleak for snow lovers like myself. Hopefully the second half of January brings us some heavy snow! Currently humid with a temperature of 39 degrees.

I'm sure something will pop up, just hope it isn't a nearly 3 month wait between snows like last year. Overall in terms of snow last year was close to a stinker IMBY, as was the year before. However, a blockbuster winter is probably not likely. We'll know more in a few weeks.

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6 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

How much forward Anthony? I've come to suspect any models that keep pushing the cold 6-10 days away. 

The 1st week will be mild. The 2nd week and forward are still in question.

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7 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

How much forward Anthony? I've come to suspect any models that keep pushing the cold 6-10 days away. 

The pattern is more of a bad 70s/80s pattern than a 90s/2000s shutout all out torch.  Something may pop at anytime in the next 15 days that produces snow where as we were totally hopeless for large portions of winters the last 20-25 years 

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Day 11-15 models have been underestimating the influence of the SE ridge and WAR the last few years. Like we saw this week, the ridge verified much stronger than the old long range forecasts. This has created the week 2 favorable looking pattern that keeps getting pushed back. 

6A794254-9FB0-4DCC-A346-7478DA0239AB.gif.d899fdda49960271516e6cf0edc344ef.gif

42C48AEB-1135-4779-8F8B-086A5640B91F.gif.68388652c101ffcdecd9fcbf78a3dbd1.gif

 

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I hope all of you had a very nice Holiday , I just wanted to recap where we have been , where we are and where we may go.

 

1st Nov 1 - Dec 20 was well BN in the east. 

 

949767254_Slide09(222).jpg.a3367595c0f56a81d8b38a8696d2512fNOV1-DEC20.jpg.ef83b1d857f1718232ad76e66f094f03.jpg

The 1 to 2 week warmup has been one the models have seen for a while now and AN December based on a back end warm up was seen back on Nov 10th.

 

1631713581_20191224_182025.jpg.5a3479dc575e9ee5756f8e53f2e4d441TEXTTOGEO.jpg.92c146991a9e2a53ce871acfadae2219.jpg

 

 

The question is does the MJO get into 7/8 in Jan , I believe it does. I would be careful using the RIMM plots as they like to chase convection. 

 

twc_globe_mjo_vp200.png

 

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We look to be getting into p7/8 by week 2 with the TPV spreading out of the Canadian Prairies into the N/E 

 

1545601389_ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_anom_5day-8614400.png.26f1ed201ae905a886ddafb89b7e1417DEC26THDAY10-15.thumb.png.d40c7be45ab1be31405bb00861f207d8.png

 

 

 

 

 

How long does that last ? It will depend on how much ridging can force itself into Alaska and attempt to displace the TPV to the east of the Rockies. 

 

I like a BN regime to return some time during the 1st week in Jan. The question is will it hold  or is it in and out after 5 days ? Does the trough just settle down the Rockies once again ? 

That part is up for debate. 

 

 

 

 

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7 minutes ago, PB-99 said:

I hope all of you had a very nice Holiday , I just wanted to recap where we have been , where we are and where we may go.

 

1st Nov 1 - Dec 20 was well BN in the east. 

 

949767254_Slide09(222).jpg.a3367595c0f56a81d8b38a8696d2512fNOV1-DEC20.jpg.ef83b1d857f1718232ad76e66f094f03.jpg

The 1 to 2 week warmup has been one the models have seen for a while now and AN December based on a back end warm up was seen back on Nov 10th.

 

1631713581_20191224_182025.jpg.5a3479dc575e9ee5756f8e53f2e4d441TEXTTOGEO.jpg.92c146991a9e2a53ce871acfadae2219.jpg

 

 

The question is does the MJO get into 7/8 in Jan , I believe it does. I would be careful using the RIMM plots as they like to chase convection. 

 

twc_globe_mjo_vp200.png

 

Offline

 

We look to be getting into p7/8 by week 2 with the TPV spreading out of the Canadian Prairies into the N/E 

 

1545601389_ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_anom_5day-8614400.png.26f1ed201ae905a886ddafb89b7e1417DEC26THDAY10-15.thumb.png.d40c7be45ab1be31405bb00861f207d8.png

 

 

 

 

 

It will depend on how much ridging can force itself into Alaska and attempt to displace the TPV to the east of the Rockies. 

 

I like a BN regime to return some time during the 1st week in Jan. The question is will it hold ? or is it in and out after 5 days, settling the trough down the Rockies once again.

That part is up for debate. 

 

 

 

 

Thanks for the breakdown. Always appreciated.

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