December 2019

[SnowGoose69]

6 minutes ago, White Gorilla said:

Any possibility of models picking up greater enhancement as we get closer? 

The question is if the overrunning aspect can produce when it bumps into the high.  You can see on most guidance and ensembles there is a period where the disturbance produces less QPF over OH/PA then invigorates again.  That is somewhat suspect unless we see that invigoration as a result of overrunning because the disturbance itself is not much to love.  One thing to like is the Euro likes this system and has been running hot lately.

[White Gorilla]

9 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The question is if the overrunning aspect can produce when it bumps into the high.  You can see on most guidance and ensembles there is a period where the disturbance produces less QPF over OH/PA then invigorates again.  That is somewhat suspect unless we see that invigoration as a result of overrunning because the disturbance itself is not much to love.  One thing to like is the Euro likes this system and has been running hot lately.

Thanks for the analysis.  What factors would strengthen overrunning?  Stronger HP to our northeast or different positioning of the HP?  Greater magnitude of blocking? 

[the_other_guy]

10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It’s like a muddy swamp out there. I just saw a mosquito with temperatures near 60 degrees here on Long Island. 
 

Farmingdale    FOG       55  54  96 S8        29.45S VSB 1/4
MacArthur/ISP  FOG       57  57 100 S10       29.45S VSB 1/4
Stony Brook      N/A     59  57  94 W2          N/A
Shirley        FOG       59  57  93 S9        29.45F VSB 1/2

That mosquito had to survive many many subfreezing hours since early November. Let it bite you...it probably has tonic that will let you live a long life

 

I do notice temps on LI seem exceptionally warm this morning. +9 or 10 from rest of the region

[the_other_guy]

12 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It’s like a muddy swamp out there. I just saw a mosquito with temperatures near 60 degrees here on Long Island. 
 

Farmingdale    FOG       55  54  96 S8        29.45S VSB 1/4
MacArthur/ISP  FOG       57  57 100 S10       29.45S VSB 1/4
Stony Brook      N/A     59  57  94 W2          N/A
Shirley        FOG       59  57  93 S9        29.45F VSB 1/2

That mosquito had to survive many many subfreezing hours since early November. Let it bite you...it probably has tonic that will let you live a long life

 

I do notice temps on LI seem exceptionally warm this morning. +9 or 10 from rest of the region

[Zelocita Weather]

Nam snow map anyone?

[bluewave]

5 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

That mosquito had to survive many many subfreezing hours since early November. Let it bite you...it probably has tonic that will let you live a long life

 

I do notice temps on LI seem exceptionally warm this morning. +9 or 10 from rest of the region

Haha. Long Island hasn’t been that cold this month. Islip should be close -1 after the warmth today. This was the 4th day above 50 degrees in December.

[doncat]

1.91" rain total...Currently 50 degrees and foggy.

[sussexcountyobs]

1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

Jb likes 3-6 from NYC to Boston 

6" would be nice. That would put me at 20" so far in December,  with still two weeks in the month left.

[SnowGoose69]

The LOL GFS thinks this is all rain for the coast.

[donsutherland1]

Shirley is currently 61.

[White Gorilla]

Anything worth discussing around Christmas week or the weekend before? 

[SnowGoose69]

4 minutes ago, White Gorilla said:

Anything worth discussing around Christmas week or the weekend before? 

If you looked at the setup at 156 you'd think a big storm was coming on the GFS but it does not pan out

[White Gorilla]

12 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

If you looked at the setup at 156 you'd think a big storm was coming on the GFS but it does not pan out

A lot of time to sort that one out

[EastonSN+]

6 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

If you looked at the setup at 156 you'd think a big storm was coming on the GFS but it does not pan out

Wouldn't the strong negative AO and negative NAO keep it south?

[MJO812]

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

Wouldn't the strong negative AO and negative NAO keep it south?

Nao isnt going to be strong 

[bluewave]

9 minutes ago, White Gorilla said:

Anything worth discussing around Christmas week or the weekend before? 

The models have a split flow looking pattern. A northern stream low through the GL and a southern stream disturbance. Not much in the way of cold air with a dominant Pacific flow. A really amped low would kick up the ridge ahead of it. Too weak and the southern stream could slide south. We would probably need some type of amazing thread the needle to make this set up work.

[MJO812]

Just now, bluewave said:

The models have a split flow looking pattern. A northern stream low through the GL and a southern stream disturbance. Not much in the way of cold air with a dominant Pacific flow. A really amped low would kick up the ridge ahead of it. Too weak and the southern stream could slide south. We would probably need some type of amazing thread the needle to make this set up work.

I dont think it would be thread the needle with the AO crashing and the NAO going negative. 

[binbisso]

The average forecast high for Central Park on December 13th is 44° so 50° is not a big deal. What's a big deal is temperatures in the teens for lows and highs in the 20s for Thursday and Friday this coming week really going to knock down the departures and looks very unlikely we'll finish with a positive departure for December

[NorthShoreWx]

10 minutes ago, binbisso said:

The average forecast high for Central Park on December 13th is 44° so 50° is not a big deal. What's a big deal is temperatures in the teens for lows and highs in the 20s for Thursday and Friday this coming week really going to knock down the departures and looks very unlikely we'll finish with a positive departure for December

58 here.

 

[binbisso]

3 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

58 here.

 

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
Central Park   CLOUDY    50  50 100 NW3       29.42F FOG
Bronx Lehman C   N/A     50  48  93 NW3         N/A
LaGuardia Arpt DRZL/FOG  50  48  93 NW7       29.40F VSB 3/4
Queens College   N/A     54  54 100 S5          N/A
Kennedy Intl   LGT RAIN  54  54 100 CALM      29.41F FOG
Breezy Point     N/A     50 N/A N/A N2          N/A
Brooklyn Coll    N/A     54  52  94 NW3         N/A
Staten Island    N/A     50  50 100 NE5         N/A
Newark/Liberty FOG       51  51 100 N7        29.40F VSB 1
Teterboro      CLOUDY    51  51 100 NE5       29.39F FOG
$$

[bluewave]

Warmest day of the month so far on Long Island.

Shirley        LGT RAIN  60  58  92 S13       29.42F FOG

[binbisso]

Looking over 2meter temperatures on today's 12z Global's so far it looks like we will be below freezing from about 21 Z Wednesday through 18z Sunday. This is not way out in Fantasyland either starting in about 4 days. that would be a pretty impressive cold for this time of year

[Enigma]

15 minutes ago, binbisso said:

Looking over 2meter temperatures on today's 12z Global's so far it looks like we will be below freezing from about 21 Z Wednesday through 18z Sunday. This is not way out in Fantasyland either starting in about 4 days. that would be a pretty impressive cold for this time of year

Not impressive by any means. Below average. Yes. 

[binbisso]

10 minutes ago, Enigma said:

Not impressive by any means. Below average. Yes. 

10 to 15 degrees below normal for 5 days in this warm climate is pretty impressive to me especially with all the warm calls for December

[NycStormChaser]

My Footage from this morning. 

 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

I dont think it would be thread the needle with the AO crashing and the NAO going negative. 

The -AO and -NAO won’t matter if the fast Pacific flow doesn’t relax. Notice how the record Pacific Jet keeps knocking down the PNA. 
 

 

[weatherpruf]

48 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The -AO and -NAO won’t matter if the fast Pacific flow doesn’t relax. Notice how the record Pacific Jet keeps knocking down the PNA. 
 

 

How many years have we had this pacific jet now?

[White Gorilla]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The -AO and -NAO won’t matter if the fast Pacific flow doesn’t relax. Notice how the record Pacific Jet keeps knocking down the PNA. 
 

 

Wouldn't that depend on the strength of the NAO, AO negativity couplet?  Most definitely a pac jet on steroids is going to at least dampen big snow potential.  Also have to see how quickly or slowly the MJO traverses through the colder and warmer phases. 

[bluewave]

18 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

How many years have we had this pacific jet now?

The uninterrupted unfavorable Pacific began last winter. Before that, the favorable intervals within a season more than made up for the unfavorable ones.

1 minute ago, White Gorilla said:

Wouldn't that depend on the strength of the NAO, AO negativity couplet?  Most definitely a pac jet on steroids is going to at least dampen big snow potential.  Also have to see how quickly or slowly the MJO traverses through the colder and warmer phases. 

It usually takes the -AO falling to -4 to -5 and the NAO -1 to -2 on the CPC official site. But we generally need a robust MJO 8 or a start warming event to pull that off. That extreme a drop can usually get the ridge to retrograde back to the West Coast boosting the PNA.

[binbisso]

I usually favor the Euro over the other operational models but the Euro just caved to the  GFS for the pre-Christmas storm. Verbatim it's a Miss but that is awfully close and a very nice-looking setup