moneypitmike Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 Here's BOX's take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 Euro says shift all that east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 4 minutes ago, weathafella said: Pacific really took a step into doodoo 0Z vs 12z long range. It's looked like poop to me for awhile. Close to closing the shades...close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 4 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Here's BOX's take. Cut all that in half at least. I agree with Wiz for the most part. I’d expect any accumulations to be localized and minor for the most part Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 Yikes. Hopefully Snowy8s models save December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It's looked like poop to me for awhile. Close to closing the shades...close. 6-10 is decent which may take our sensible wx to around 12/20-22 before we grinch it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 Well hopefully the GEFS score a coup but it’s not what I would bet on. That look is serviceable in the long range. It’s also a big improvement vs 0Z GEFS so maybe something is going on...we’ll know mid day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It's looked like poop to me for awhile. Close to closing the shades...close. And things held such promise a week ago...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 NAm and GFS BUFKIT do have good lift in the DGZ so there is that. But it's also fighting dry air near 850. Tough call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 1 minute ago, moneypitmike said: And things held such promise a week ago...... We are close to getting some events to work out. I've certainly seen worse. Might be a NNE deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 2 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: And things held such promise a week ago...... And you’re above normal in the snow department by a big margin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 12z everyone will be on the weenie train again. I’m just going to enjoy my dews the next couple of days. It’s already above freezing up here in CAD land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Euro says shift all that east. And the Euro is good now because? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 58 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Noyes in house model has 2-4” You downplayed last one and got 25” We’ll see Totally different beast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: And the Euro is good now because? Because it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 I'm not saying it could come in stronger at 12z, but right now I don't see a lot of reasons to be aggressive. The only thing I could see is a narrow area get into a good band of snow for a few hours with not a while lot on either side of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 3 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Totally different beast. I just think a strip of 3-6” is a very safe forecast over a wide area of interior SNE down to NW burbs of NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I just think a strip of 3-6” is a very safe forecast over a wide area of interior SNE down to NW burbs of NYC You probably won't suffer physical harm by making that forecast, I agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I just think a strip of 3-6” is a very safe forecast over a wide area of interior SNE down to NW burbs of NYC Down from 4-8? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 RPM is still rather snowy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Down from 4-8? 3-6”/4-8” is basically the same . We’ll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: RPM is still rather snowy. Details please! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 I was surprised no advisory was issued. All the advisories when it was 33 to 35 rain and overnight had marginal temps combined with drizzle on very cold surfaces...it's slick in spots! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 Just now, weathafella said: Details please! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: RPM is still rather snowy. Somewhere in EMA, a young stud’s weenie is percolating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Thank you! Matches (sort of) BOX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 Extended Rgem looked decent as well. It's a wait and see but based on current guidance 2-3 inches for many with the potential for 4+ in some areas depending on shifts and wobbles and where the banding sets up seems reasonable. Hopefully the whole corridor of snow doesn't get shunted too far east and south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 10 minutes ago, CTValleySnowMan said: Extended Rgem looked decent as well. It's a wait and see but based on current guidance 2-3 inches for many with the potential for 4+ in some areas depending on shifts and wobbles and where the banding sets up seems reasonable. Hopefully the whole corridor of snow doesn't get shunted too far east and south. Well, hopefully it shifts enough to give the goods to those who missed out on the KU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Well, hopefully it shifts enough to give the goods to those who missed out on the KU. When was there a KU storm this season? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 47 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: NAm and GFS BUFKIT do have good lift in the DGZ so there is that. But it's also fighting dry air near 850. Tough call. What would win out in this situation? This is my interpretation... It's great to have all that lift and all, but if there is insufficient moisture...well there is nothing to really lift. It will be difficult to generate much in the way of precipitation. Plus, with that dry air...and it's pretty significant around 850...whatever precip does develop and fall will be virga. given the progressiveness of this as well we don't have time to saturate...not to mention additional dry air being advected in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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