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Lake Effect 2019-20 Thread

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47 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Can't help yourself, huh? 

Wouldn't be that concerned about cc and lake effect snow for now.  Some of the modeling actually suggests amounts could increase for a while (this has already happened in the past several decades) as the lakes being warmer/ice free for longer helps to counteract warmer airmasses in the means.  But you still do need to meet a minimum threshold to trigger les and the pattern hasn't just been a little warmer than avg, it has been very mild in the means for the past couple months.  

Snowfall is absolutely increasing in the Great Lakes.  Detroit just finished its snowiest decade on record, and without all the numbers in front of me I imagine most of the Lake belts did as well.  

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9 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Snowfall is absolutely increasing in the Great Lakes.  Detroit just finished its snowiest decade on record, and without all the numbers in front of me I imagine most of the Lake belts did as well.  

I would be interested to see how the lake belts are doing if it were broke down by decade. To me it seems like the belts in northern lower MI had more snow back in the 90's but that's just me thinking back with nothing to base that off of other then snowmobiling up there since the mid 80's and always trying to find the deepest snow to play in when we could. The UP MI belts seem like they haven't changed much over the years to me, they pretty much always have great snow in the areas I have been going to for the past 30+ years. The SW MI belts seem like they have seen a decline to me, growing up my best friend had family in Paw Paw that we would go visit often and I remember them having crazy deep snow a lot of the time when back here in SE MI we would have very little. Now it seems like they don't get all that much more then what we get out this way. A big question I would ask is have the measuring techniques of the snow changed over the years at all and could that have a effect on the overall increases in the long term averages? Like measuring 2x a day verse 1x or certain times of the day type thing. I have no idea how "official" measuring is done but have wondered if the techniques have changed at all over the years could that have any effect on the long term averages? 

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2 hours ago, slow poke said:

I would be interested to see how the lake belts are doing if it were broke down by decade. To me it seems like the belts in northern lower MI had more snow back in the 90's but that's just me thinking back with nothing to base that off of other then snowmobiling up there since the mid 80's and always trying to find the deepest snow to play in when we could. The UP MI belts seem like they haven't changed much over the years to me, they pretty much always have great snow in the areas I have been going to for the past 30+ years. The SW MI belts seem like they have seen a decline to me, growing up my best friend had family in Paw Paw that we would go visit often and I remember them having crazy deep snow a lot of the time when back here in SE MI we would have very little. Now it seems like they don't get all that much more then what we get out this way. A big question I would ask is have the measuring techniques of the snow changed over the years at all and could that have a effect on the overall increases in the long term averages? Like measuring 2x a day verse 1x or certain times of the day type thing. I have no idea how "official" measuring is done but have wondered if the techniques have changed at all over the years could that have any effect on the long term averages? 

It would be a lot of work to get all the data, too bad we dont have climo experts in the area. As far as measurment techniques, i remember years ago i asked a local met about the every 6 hours method and he stated that its been in place as long as he can remember (1960s) but for first order stations the practice has been in place as long as is remembered. However If a lake belt location only measured once a day that would definitely show up as less, as so much of their snow is super fluffy. So what you would need to do is look at a first order station.  Coops will have more errors and variance. Another way to do it is to look at daily snow depth. 

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25 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

One last thing Ill say on the subject, is that lake effect snow here, far outside the belts, growing up, always meant lots of flurries and the occasional snow shower where you might get lucky and dust up a few tenths. However, the past decade or so we have seen multiple les bands drop snow in inches, not tenths, into southeast MI. They happen almost yearly, including a few crazy instances of 6"+ (I have not been lucky enough to be in those bands lol). I N-E-V-E-R saw LES of that "magnitude" make it to this portion of the state when I was a kid (Ive been a weather watcher since the age of 11 or so, ie, early to mid-1990s).

 

FYI, heres average seasonal snowfall & snowcover per decade at Detroit & Chicago, 2 Great Lakes cities outside the belts and on opposite sides of Lake MI.

DECADAL SNOWFALL AND 1”+ SNOWCOVER DAYS

DETROIT                                                               CHICAGO

2010s     49.9”     53 days                                42.7”    44 days

2000s     45.3”      51 days                                 38.5”    45 days

1990s    37.9”     37 days                                 33.5”    36 days

1980s    45.2”     47 days                                 38.1”    45 days

1970s    45.6”     57 days                                 55.6”    56 days

1960s    31.8”     57 days                                 44.6”    48 days

1950s    37.8”     47 days                                 38.2”    38 days

1940s    27.8”     48 days                                 33.7”    42 days

1930s    32.9”     44 days                                 30.9”    32 days

1920s    46.1”     49 days                                 27.3”    32 days

1910s    39.6”     59 days                                 31.2”    49 days

1900s    46.3”                                                     36.6”

1890s    43.2”

1880s:   43.1”

 

As for the belts, Ill be on Lake Superior in Munising Feb 16-19, so BRING IT!

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On 1/23/2020 at 1:03 PM, michsnowfreak said:

One last thing Ill say on the subject, is that lake effect snow here, far outside the belts, growing up, always meant lots of flurries and the occasional snow shower where you might get lucky and dust up a few tenths. However, the past decade or so we have seen multiple les bands drop snow in inches, not tenths, into southeast MI. They happen almost yearly, including a few crazy instances of 6"+ (I have not been lucky enough to be in those bands lol). I N-E-V-E-R saw LES of that "magnitude" make it to this portion of the state when I was a kid (Ive been a weather watcher since the age of 11 or so, ie, early to mid-1990s).

 

FYI, heres average seasonal snowfall & snowcover per decade at Detroit & Chicago, 2 Great Lakes cities outside the belts and on opposite sides of Lake MI.

DECADAL SNOWFALL AND 1”+ SNOWCOVER DAYS

DETROIT                                                               CHICAGO

2010s     49.9”     53 days                                42.7”    44 days

2000s     45.3”      51 days                                 38.5”    45 days

1990s    37.9”     37 days                                 33.5”    36 days

1980s    45.2”     47 days                                 38.1”    45 days

1970s    45.6”     57 days                                 55.6”    56 days

1960s    31.8”     57 days                                 44.6”    48 days

1950s    37.8”     47 days                                 38.2”    38 days

1940s    27.8”     48 days                                 33.7”    42 days

1930s    32.9”     44 days                                 30.9”    32 days

1920s    46.1”     49 days                                 27.3”    32 days

1910s    39.6”     59 days                                 31.2”    49 days

1900s    46.3”                                                     36.6”

1890s    43.2”

1880s:   43.1”

 

As for the belts, Ill be on Lake Superior in Munising Feb 16-19, so BRING IT!

Yeah, the LES making it into SEMI was rare in my youth there too. There was the Feb '85 event when the Low stalled N of Superior and spun for 2 days. East of KFNT at my folk's place we had 4-6" of ice cold pixies. More commonly, we would get squalls around Genesee Cnty that would drop 1 or 1.5" in short order, then the sun would come back out. Those I do remember as the better LES hits. 

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On 12/24/2019 at 9:16 AM, weatherbo said:

There's been a lot actually the past several years, although my little corner here has not been under 200" a season since I've lived here.  One or two years it was close and the depth only peaked around 30" one year, think it was 2016-17.

Hey bo/Josh, we’re looking at some land, 15 acres, over near your old stomping ground bo, East Jordan. It’s actually just off M66 about 1/2 way between East Jordan and 131. Just wondering what you’re thoughts are of that area. Looks like they average a little over 100” of snow and it’s close to some really good mountain bike trails and some great inland lakes. Any thoughts you could pass along would be appreciated, thanks 

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7 hours ago, slow poke said:

Hey bo/Josh, we’re looking at some land, 15 acres, over near your old stomping ground bo, East Jordan. It’s actually just off M66 about 1/2 way between East Jordan and 131. Just wondering what you’re thoughts are of that area. Looks like they average a little over 100” of snow and it’s close to some really good mountain bike trails and some great inland lakes. Any thoughts you could pass along would be appreciated, thanks 

I know the that area very well pass it everyday as I have an office in East Jordan. Snowfall is just okay in that area, I wold say they do alright for snowfall, however once you get towards Mancelonna the snowfall picks ups quite a bit, there is a decent elevation change  as EJ is kind of in a ditch. Same way towards Bo's old  stopping grounds as that area always has more snow on the ground then EJ area.  I'd say my area probably almost sees 50-75 percent more on average.

Now regarding other outdoor activities there are plenty of Lakes nearby, obviously Lake Charlevoix being a big attraction. Just take M66 up towards Charlevoix its a beautiful area along with some amazing houses along the lake. There is great hiking and biking in the area as well, snowmobiling towards Jordan valley is a great area, I'm sure you been there before and towards DeadMans Hill??

Also property is fairly cheap, taxes are okay, if you hunt it is a very good area for Deer, Turkey, etc. But just keep you expectations tempered especially regarding LES as it does fall short to other areas only 30-40 miles as away.  For example I have about 22" OTG at my house and EJ maybe has 8" OTG currently.  Although they can get hammered in a NNW flow or SW flow if the bands align just right (Both rare flows for Northern Mi). 

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18 hours ago, slow poke said:

Hey bo/Josh, we’re looking at some land, 15 acres, over near your old stomping ground bo, East Jordan. It’s actually just off M66 about 1/2 way between East Jordan and 131. Just wondering what you’re thoughts are of that area. Looks like they average a little over 100” of snow and it’s close to some really good mountain bike trails and some great inland lakes. Any thoughts you could pass along would be appreciated, thanks 

  There's not much negative to say about the area that's for sure.  When I lived there, winter's were awesome and summer was perfect (lake shadow ftw).  Not too hot and especially not too cool like it can be up here in summer.  That area isn't hugely populated so that was nice. You nailed it tho, lot's of woods and trails for riding all year long.  Some of the best fishing I've ever done was in six mile lake.  The hillbillies there are a different variety than anywhere I've lived...and I'll just leave it at that :whistle:

 

Looks to get pretty nasty up here with the arctic front... snow wind and temps plummeting to near 0.

6-8" snow up this way with a low visibility, small flake type snow.

MQT_snow_00-24hr.png.b770efefcbf449966d54b5f573823f5f.png

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Coming up for my first ever snowmobile trip to the UP end Feb, so quite soon! Staying in Marquette, snowmobiling around Pictured Rocks. Any thoughts/comments on conditions up there?

Thanks!

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17 minutes ago, mimillman said:

Coming up for my first ever snowmobile trip to the UP end Feb, so quite soon! Staying in Marquette, snowmobiling around Pictured Rocks. Any thoughts/comments on conditions up there?

Thanks!

Green is a snow depth of 24"+.

Map of Modeled Snow Depth (Shallow-snow Legend)

 

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On ‎2‎/‎12‎/‎2020 at 9:05 AM, weatherbo said:

  There's not much negative to say about the area that's for sure.  When I lived there, winter's were awesome and summer was perfect (lake shadow ftw).  Not too hot and especially not too cool like it can be up here in summer.  That area isn't hugely populated so that was nice. You nailed it tho, lot's of woods and trails for riding all year long.  Some of the best fishing I've ever done was in six mile lake.  The hillbillies there are a different variety than anywhere I've lived...and I'll just leave it at that :whistle:

 

Looks to get pretty nasty up here with the arctic front... snow wind and temps plummeting to near 0.

6-8" snow up this way with a low visibility, small flake type snow.

MQT_snow_00-24hr.png.b770efefcbf449966d54b5f573823f5f.png

Thanks for the feedback guys, we went and looked at the property Friday, it's not something were interested in after seeing it. I think some of the hillbillies that you mentioned live on the road this property was on, pretty rough looking area. Junk cars in in yards, piles of scrap metal and old tires, its a shame because the view and area was really nice. The lower elevation was really noticeable compared to up the hill near 131, about 1/2 the snow cover as up the hill.   

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3 hours ago, slow poke said:

Thanks for the feedback guys, we went and looked at the property Friday, it's not something were interested in after seeing it. I think some of the hillbillies that you mentioned live on the road this property was on, pretty rough looking area. Junk cars in in yards, piles of scrap metal and old tires, its a shame because the view and area was really nice. The lower elevation was really noticeable compared to up the hill near 131, about 1/2 the snow cover as up the hill.   

Yea that area is definitely not pristine outdoor living for Northern Mi standards. Also the snow differences is rather stark for that area heading east towards Mancelonna and towards my area. Are you looking for just property or a house as well, there are several parcels and even some houses available near my neck of the woods which would probably be more in line with what your looking for??

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