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sbnwx85

Lake Effect 2019-20 Thread

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In light of what appears to be a potentially impressive lake effect event in parts of the Great Lakes early next week I figured now is a good time to start up the region's lake effect thread for the winter. IWX hinting at the event beginning Monday. 

Quote

850 mb temps in the wake of the cold front will drop to -15 to -18C, with cyclonic flow lingering aloft through at least Wednesday. This will set us up for (potentially significant) lake effect snow in north-northwest wind favored regions. Temperatures will be much colder, with highs in the 20s and low 30s. Lows will be in the teens and low 20s.

 

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Parameters look good to excellent downwind of Lake Michigan for a rather prolonged time.  Should peak early in the week though as that graphic mentioned.  The South Bend area or somewhere in between there and here looks to be primed.  Impressive to see the global models trying to pick out mesolow development at this distance.  That could play havoc with the wind fields and cause the band(s) to curl west at times to the point where it could affect my area and/or possibly even the IL/WI shore for a time.

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12z GEM has a mesolow for the ages rolling down Lake Michigan.  Not buying these model output verbatim of course but mesolow development does seem likely in this setup.

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2 hours ago, Hoosier said:

12z GEM has a mesolow for the ages rolling down Lake Michigan.  Not buying these model output verbatim of course but mesolow development does seem likely in this setup.

Looking like it. That 17" death band I experienced was unforgettable. Has to rank at or near the top for best rates/lowest vis personally witnessed. 

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East snow belts sure have been cashing in lately.  Later today into tonight when winds go more N/NNW, it should begin to snow heavier again here.  Meanwhile, overnight it cleared and with around 10" on the ground, the temp has fallen to 8 and probably no higher than 15 for a high today.  Hard to believe Halloween was 12 days ago.

MQT_snow_00-24hr.png.7b8eb0f692c575599818f403b1e3735f.png

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HRRR showing poundtown for Berrien Co, MI and St. Joseph County, IN overnight. Single band that wobbles for about 12 hours. 

ref1km_ptype.us_mw.png
snku_acc.us_mw.png
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1 hour ago, sbnwx85 said:

HRRR showing poundtown for Berrien Co, MI and St. Joseph County, IN overnight. Single band that wobbles for about 12 hours. 

snku_acc.us_mw.png

My daughter is supposed to drive from FWA to SBN tomorrow for business. After seeing the HRRR I told her proclaim trip cancel.

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Latest AFD from IWX: 

Current expectations are for decent inland penetration of banding 
tonight given strong northerly flow connected in with long axis of 
Lake Michigan and Lake Superior. With that said, hard to say 
if/where banding will hold in for a decent time for counties just 
south and east of the Winter Storm Warning 
(Elkhart/Kosciusko/Marshall/Fulton IN/Starke). Reduced visibilities, 
cold sfc temps, and additional accums will likely allow at least 
advisory level impacts to persist beyond the current 05z expiration 
in these counties. An upgrade to warning cannot be ruled out in 
Marshall/Starke/Elkhart counties if the southern end of more 
dominant band settles in for a time. Much higher confidence for 
additional 6" plus snow amounts and intense 1-2" snowfall rates in 
areas currently under a Winter Storm Warning. Latest guidance 
continues to suggest Berrien, far western Cass MI and St Joseph IN 
in line for longest duration in intense lake plume where localized 
totals will likely exceed a foot. Winds will also pick up on the 
western fringe which could create some blowing/drifting.

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The band really getting its act together now. Probably some 2-3 inch per hour rates in there. My backyard went from 3 inches with the system to a total of 5.7” now. Still snowing but band is drifting East. 

B25D90E3-AA56-4F4D-807A-F07CEAE0BB8F.png

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Sitting between bands now. The secondary band in Western St. Joseph County is very intense. I wonder if that will become the dominant band and move East. Dynamics must be incredible for lake effect snows right now. Sitting at 6.3” overall. Hoping the next band swings through overnight for another couple inches. 

AAE4AD93-F853-4CDD-A267-0D3D614A22B2.png

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It looks like Indystorm's old stomping grounds was ground zero for the Indiana portion of the storm/LES. That area was still stacking after those reports.

...ELKHART COUNTY...
1 SW GOSHEN                  13.0 IN   0800 AM 11/12   41.57N/85.85W        
ELKHART                      12.0 IN   0800 AM 11/12   41.69N/85.97W        
3 WSW GOSHEN                 10.6 IN   0700 AM 11/12   41.56N/85.89W        
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Dunlap (between Goshen and Elkhart) had a report of 18 inches. I think that's the jackpot for Indiana for the event. I don't know of a time a lake effect event crushed Elkhart County like this. I ended with 6.4". 

EJMyO_UXUAEtAqw?format=jpg&name=large

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6 hours ago, IWXwx said:

It looks like Indystorm's old stomping grounds was ground zero for the Indiana portion of the storm/LES. That area was still stacking after those reports.

...ELKHART COUNTY...
1 SW GOSHEN                  13.0 IN   0800 AM 11/12   41.57N/85.85W        
ELKHART                      12.0 IN   0800 AM 11/12   41.69N/85.97W        
3 WSW GOSHEN                 10.6 IN   0700 AM 11/12   41.56N/85.89W        

I must be getting old....I'll settle for the 2.5 inches I got here at Fortville instead of that 18 inches at Dunlap.

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Big chunk of the lake belt areas in MI are really starting to have it pile up. My cousin's place half way between Paradise and White fish point in the UP has 30" on the ground as of this morning according to his snow removal guy. Looks like these areas are picking up right where they left off last spring with a deep snow pack. 

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5 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

This thread kind of died. Picked up 7.2" from todays lake effect event. Had some snowfall rates above 2" per

Few pics

From NYS thruway

img4ni00460n.jpg&key=ca60b6544ffaa741d75

C287D893-80A5-400B-8D6D-D62107853C0D.jpeg

BB05B6F7-86BF-444E-AB1E-6020117CFB26.jpeg

Thanks for reminding me to not drive the ThruWay during winter.

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Hey All Been away for quite a  while, been pretty busy with work/family. Weather sure has been pretty ho hum in the snow and LES especially my area, most systems have been about 75 miles to far to my NW and haven't had much LES. Looks like a picked a great time to sell the snowmobiles last summer. 

 

You know its been a bad start when the LES thread is still on the same first page and its almost Jan. 

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7 minutes ago, josh_4184 said:

Hey All Been away for quite a  while, been pretty busy with work/family. Weather sure has been pretty ho hum in the snow and LES especially my area, most systems have been about 75 miles to far to my NW and haven't had much LES. Looks like a picked a great time to sell the snowmobiles last summer. 

 

You know its been a bad start when the LES thread is still on the same first page and its almost Jan. 

Was last Dec any better up your way??

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22 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

Was last Dec any better up your way??

No, probably about the same, didn't see any real meaningful snows (By Gaylord Stds) until Jan. We did pickup about 10" the other night but besides that just been a lot of rain/sleet to snow on the back end.  Although we are around average for the year but certainly hasn't felt like it. 

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