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November 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread

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23 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

you know it's going to be warm when you fold up shop....

Don't stress. Better to have this warm pattern now than say mid to late December. Besides other than the random nuisance snow events that could occur this time of the year, we really need everything to align perfectly for anything meaningful to happen. Bottomline once the cold air returns, we'll be in a much better place (climatologically speaking).

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1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

I'm planning a trip to Northeastern PA- does early Thanksgiving morning sound like a bad day to travel?  I wanted to go when the roads weren't busy but the weather also needs to be good.  What about really early Wednesday morning (like around 9 AM.)

Where in northeastern PA? My fiancée had family up there, just a bunch of farmland. Good place for snow though lol

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18 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

 

HM

 

"The -NAO is going to start causing trouble here in the eastern US as we go into Dec. Winter's coming."

 

With the QBO reversal and solar minimum one would think a -NAO would be a dominating feature this winter. I'm at most cautiously optimistic because over the past several years it's been so damn elusive to develop during the heart of winter, only to show up come spring and taunt us. 

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46 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

 

HM

 

"The -NAO is going to start causing trouble here in the eastern US as we go into Dec. Winter's coming."

 

 

 

Those wave breaking events that they are talking about. Root for that to happen very often moving forward, in that area.

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1 hour ago, NutleyBlizzard said:

With the QBO reversal and solar minimum one would think a -NAO would be a dominating feature this winter. I'm at most cautiously optimistic because over the past several years it's been so damn elusive to develop during the heart of winter, only to show up come spring and taunt us. 

Exactly, I’ll pass on a -NAO in April. The one thing that’s concerning is the near repeat of the past 2 cold seasons thus far with record breaking November cold. Do we follow the same narrative? Also, does an early season -NAO without arctic air access cut it for the coast. 

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I am hearing such mixed signals moving forward... Emerging negative NAO, QBO reversal and solar minimum but with rising EPO and declining PNA. Isn't the AO expected to go positive as well bassist on current guidance?  I understand that weekly forecasts are very fickle and changeable. 

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25 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Exactly, I’ll pass on a -NAO in April. The one thing that’s concerning is the near repeat of the past 2 cold seasons thus far with record breaking November cold. Do we follow the same narrative? Also, does an early season -NAO without arctic air access cut it for the coast. 

Good point about how even with a negative NAO and a potential coastal storm track, frozen precip may be marginal without fresh arctic air and instead dealing stale Pacific based cold.  Climo definitely becomes more favorable moving forward, but water temps still being so mild would make it tricky for immediate coastal sections without true arctic cold even with a coastal storm track, unless other factors come in like dynamic cooling, etc.  

Hoping after ages we all can experience a whiter December than we have had in recent years. 

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Readings ranged from the upper 40s in the northern Middle Atlantic region to the lower 50s farther south. No new Arctic blasts are likely for at least the next two weeks.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.8°C for the week centered around November 13. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.68°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.63°C. These recent conditions are consistent with a weak El Niño. Nevertheless, a neutral ENSO remains the base case for Winter 2019-20.

The SOI was -27.36 today.

An SOI reading of -30 or below, as occurred on November 4-5, also occurred during three prior years in the November 1-10 timeframe. All three cases featured a warmer than normal December. The average temperature for those three cases was 2 degrees warmer than normal.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.804.

On November 18, the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.775 (RMM). The November 17-adjusted amplitude was 1.459.

The recent MJO tendencies suggest that December could wind up at least somewhat warmer than normal overall. The MJO had spent three days in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above. Since 1974, five years saw the MJO in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.500 or higher for two or more days during the 1974-2018 period: 1985, 1987, 1996, 1998, and 2018. Only 1985 with a mean temperature of 34.2° was colder than normal during December.

It also spent three days in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above. All five years (1986, 1990, 1996, 1999, and 2016) that saw the MJO in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the November 10-20 period went on to record a warmer than normal December. The recent record cold outbreak (11/12-13) coincided closely with the timing of a similar magnitude Arctic outbreak in 1986 (11/13-14). The December 1986 mean temperature in New York City was 39.0°.

Since 1974, the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.000 to 2.000 during the November 10-25 period on three or more days in eight years, as was the case this year. In 6/8 (75%) cases, the AO wound up averaging > 0 during December; in 5/8 (63%) it averaged +0.500 or above; and, in 4/8 (50%), it averaged +1.000 or above. In 2/8 (25%) cases, it averaged -2.000 or below (2005 and 2010). In 5/8 (63%) cases, December was warmer than normal in the New York City area. At present, there is considerable uncertainty concerning the Arctic Oscillation in the extended guidance.

Overall, the preponderance of data continues to imply a milder than normal December in the East. Should ENSO Region 3.4 continue to warm, the Indian Ocean Dipole persist, and the Arctic Oscillation trend toward neutral and later positive, the probability of such an outcome would increase.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, New York City has an implied 94% probability of experiencing a colder than normal November.

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This weekend is a great example of what happens with a weak -NAO and unfavorable Pacific. The longer range GFS especially suffers under this type of pattern.

 

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5 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

You know it is a boring time when there are no posts for ten hours in late November. Should see the sun some today so that is exciting!

The forum was down

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1 minute ago, bluewave said:

This weekend is a great example of what happens with a weak -NAO and unfavorable Pacific.

 

Models do look good after Thanksgiving with the block getting established.  What are your thoughts about moving forward ?

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18 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Models do look good after Thanksgiving with the block getting established.  What are your thoughts about moving forward ?

I am just weary of the Pacific defaulting back to its multi-year Niña-like base state. Notice how the EPS has the ridge north of Hawaii and SE ridge holding on with the weak -NAO near the end of the month. My guess is that the warm western Pacific and cold Niño 1+2 has a hand in this pattern of the last few years. 
 

BE15B060-BDFD-4352-88F2-33D6C6610995.thumb.png.b3b92685b5c1aee57562137a44cca6d4.png

8D5F7DFD-4422-4F96-94F5-67F7EECEBEE5.png.32bcf48737cbc2190f640c82b3be45b9.png

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2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I am just weary of the Pacific defaulting back to its multi-year Niña-like base state. Notice how the EPS has the ridge north of Hawaii and SE ridge holding on with the weak -NAO near the end of the month. My guess is that the warm western Pacific and cold Niño 1+2 has a hand in this pattern of the last few years. 
 

BE15B060-BDFD-4352-88F2-33D6C6610995.thumb.png.b3b92685b5c1aee57562137a44cca6d4.png

8D5F7DFD-4422-4F96-94F5-67F7EECEBEE5.png.32bcf48737cbc2190f640c82b3be45b9.png

It’s all pacific air under the block with a negative PNA, that’s a chilly rain pattern

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1 minute ago, qg_omega said:

It’s all pacific air under the block with a negative PNA, that’s a chilly rain pattern

It's only November.  What do you expect ? We can live with a negative pna and negative nao during the heart of the winter .

 

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16 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I am just weary of the Pacific defaulting back to its multi-year Niña-like base state. Notice how the EPS has the ridge north of Hawaii and SE ridge holding on with the weak -NAO near the end of the month. My guess is that the warm western Pacific and cold Niño 1+2 has a hand in this pattern of the last few years. 
 

BE15B060-BDFD-4352-88F2-33D6C6610995.thumb.png.b3b92685b5c1aee57562137a44cca6d4.png

8D5F7DFD-4422-4F96-94F5-67F7EECEBEE5.png.32bcf48737cbc2190f640c82b3be45b9.png

Seems like the Pacific has more of an influence on snowfall in our area than Atlantic.  Has there been any research on this broader question? 

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33 minutes ago, White Gorilla said:

Seems like the Pacific has more of an influence on snowfall in our area than Atlantic.  Has there been any research on this broader question? 

We need a strong -NAO event to counter the unfavorable Pacific like we had late in the last few seasons. Root for another -EPO pulse in early December to combine with the weak -NAO. That would be one way we could see some wintery weather. But that is too far out to speculate on now. Otherwise, we get the same default unfavorable Pacific pattern.

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The next 8 days are averaging 45.5degs., or about 2degs. AN.

Month to date is  -5.9[43.6].           Should be near +3.7[44.2] by the 28th

42* here at 6am.     41* at 7am and 8am.   42* at 9am       46* by 1pm.

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51 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We need a strong -NAO event to counter the unfavorable Pacific like we had late in the last few seasons. Root for another -EPO pulse in early December to combine with the weak -NAO. That would be one way we could see some wintery weather. But that is too far out to speculate on now. Otherwise, we get the same default unfavorable Pacific pattern.

Any stratosphere warming event possibilities on the horizon to further help us out with arctic cold? 

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Pattern looks alot better after Thanksgiving. Mjo isnt going into the warm phases and the nao tanks on the eps.

 

I wouldn't be shocked to see the Thanksgiving cutter keep trending east if the block is real.

The euro did that at 0z.

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

We need a strong -NAO event to counter the unfavorable Pacific like we had late in the last few seasons. Root for another -EPO pulse in early December to combine with the weak -NAO. That would be one way we could see some wintery weather. But that is too far out to speculate on now. Otherwise, we get the same default unfavorable Pacific pattern.

Eventually  this winter pattern has to end.  This would be what?  7-8 years in a row of this now.  Figure we are due either this winter or next to see it switch to something else 

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That eps map is reflecting the MJO forcing in phase 1 due to the + IOD. That's the response you get in November from that area. As winter progresses, that changes. Some NAO is being added into the mix this go around. Which, the fact that it's actually looking to happen at all is promising for later on down the road. Meaning, maybe it shows it's face more often this year. Also, the + IOD event will be weakening as we make our way through the winter months. The question in my mind is, does the +PMM take over at some point? If it does, this place will be buzzing. 

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