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November 2019 discussion

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15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Prob fake news below 900-925 though over elevated interior. Esp given the model. 

 

4 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Doesn’t it have a big cool bias now?  At least that’s word on the streets here.  

It does a bit higher up. But imo low levels are still a little too warm due to marine influence. It doesn’t handle CAD well at all. In this case we lose a lot of the cold anyways, but it still may have low level issues.

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I take the approach that for most of sne, this is not the storm that brings November snows.  A few weeks later sure but pre 11/25 it’s a lot to ask for.  Our November snows often come via clippers and sometimes overrunning SWFEs.

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14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

 

It does a bit higher up. But imo low levels are still a little too warm due to marine influence. It doesn’t handle CAD well at all. In this case we lose a lot of the cold anyways, but it still may have low level issues.

Yea noticed that as well. Another tool in the tool box, some know how to use tools others hire others to do it for them.

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So that's a whopper Noreaster there on the 18z GFS ... It's probably close enough at this point to figure much of the QPF is slush and blue urinal cake. It's clearly cold enough at 850 mb and given those parametric layouts there's no way that's just rain on the west arc/limb of that sucker's circulation... 

You're probably talking the blue bomb proper on that run.   

There's just one small caveat tho - it's the GFS... 

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2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

So that's a whopper Noreaster there on the 18z GFS ... It's probably close enough at this point to figure much of the QPF is slush and blue urinal cake. It's clearly cold enough at 850 mb and given those parametric layouts there's no way that's just rain on the west arc/limb of the sucker circulation... 

You're probably talking the blue bomb proper on that run.   

There's just one small caveat tho - it's the GFS... 

Why are you even looking at the FV3? Worthless 

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The euro was not far off from the gfs solution. So it's plausible. I would still hedge toward something less exciting at d7 but it's something to watch. 

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3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Why are you even looking at the FV3? Worthless 

It just schooled the Euro two events in a row while you were apparently in a coma - 

from this range, too... Plus, the Euro isn't all that far from this solution, which if you bother to ever actually read anything, I expanded on that twice earlier in the day. 

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22 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Why does he still insist on looking at the FV3. Please stop looking at it and posting about it. It’s garbage 

And what's going to happen if it does get an event correct ? You do know the euro busts at times, right ?

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Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

It just schooled the Euro two events in a row while you were apparently in a coma - 

from this range, too... Plus, the Euro isn't all that far from this solution, which if you bother to ever actually read anything, I expanded on that twice earlier in the day. 

Lol . It did nothing of the sort. You will not find one met here that will agree with you on that. It had no storm on the one last week and had this one yesterday Ots 

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