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Hoosier

Winter 2019-20 Medium/Long Range Discussion

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looking less and less like this is a repeat of last December...which is a good thing. Chistorm called for a warmer period basically from the late November through first week of December period. Which was a period many had as cold and stormy with a return of the early November chill. Call made in early November. Models wavered back and forth and he stuck to his guns. Good call. 

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8 hours ago, Stebo said:

Above normal for all the major cities in the east, color me shocked. He should just issue this forecast every year September 1st.

Lol i know right. But i will say ive seen many forecasts with a sweet spot storm track over us. Obviously its been a dull couple weeks, but season snowfall to date is well above normal and weve only just begun.

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On 11/26/2019 at 4:33 PM, Cary67 said:

To be expected. Snowy Novembers lead to snowless Decembers. 

Looking good early.

Screenshot_20191206-123807_Samsung Internet.jpg

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The pattern lacks arctic air(outside the short lived intrusion next week), but yeah, I am surprised that kind of bomb couldn't generate a cold sector snow swath further south. But we are talking about a 192-216 fantasy range stuff. Better watching than the cold biased GFS crap though lol.

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44 minutes ago, Angrysummons said:

The pattern lacks arctic air(outside the short lived intrusion next week), but yeah, I am surprised that kind of bomb couldn't generate a cold sector snow swath further south. But we are talking about a 192-216 fantasy range stuff. Better watching than the cold biased GFS crap though lol.

Christmas Eve 2014 was plagued with this same lack of true cold air and didn't produce much south of Canada! This is at least "trying", tho as you say, it's still fantasy range attm. 

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Hopefully that thing around the 13th-15th produces a nice snow somewhere, but even if it doesn't, I look at it as sort of just the beginning of the more favorable stretch.  I mean, it can't get much worse than how the first 10+ days of December are going to play out for most of us, right?  

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2 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Hopefully that thing around the 13th-15th produces a nice snow somewhere, but even if it doesn't, I look at it as sort of just the beginning of the more favorable stretch.  I mean, it can't get much worse than how the first 10+ days of December are going to play out for most of us, right?  

Mike at IND agrees with your thinking on a pattern change:

"WHILE THIS IS LIKELY TO BE A TRANSIENT SHOT OF COLD AIR...IT LIKELY WILL SIGNAL THE FIRST STEP IN AN OVERALL PATTERN SHIFT THAT WILL TRANSITION TO MORE ACTIVE AND COLDER CONDITIONS GOING FORWARDS TOWARDS THE LATTER HALF OF THE MONTH."

 
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3 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

Long ways off but it never gets old seeing big storms like that show up in the long range.  Luckily we have another 11 days to get that to trend a bit northwest. :P

Nah..ride it!

 

OH BBs.JPG

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4 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

Long ways off but it never gets old seeing big storms like that show up in the long range.  Luckily we have another 11 days to get that to trend a bit northwest. :P

Wavy-ass long wave pattern is gonna be generating all kinds of fantasy storms on the models.  Best advise is not to raise an eyebrow on any solution until the gfs, euro, and ggem all have the same thing inside 96 hrs....then you can do 2 eyebrows if it remains inside 48hrs.  :lol:

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4 hours ago, RogueWaves said:

Euro won't "let go the bone" on a GOMEX Low next Friday

 

floop-ecmwf_full-2019120700.prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.gif

The 12z Euro caved to the GFS, which literally takes the low right along the coast from Georgia to Maine, and also depicts a weak northern stream wave following it up through the Midwest.

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7 hours ago, IWXwx said:

The 12z Euro caved to the GFS, which literally takes the low right along the coast from Georgia to Maine, and also depicts a weak northern stream wave following it up through the Midwest.

Yay! Thx for the good news..tho not surprised. 

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Just a few short years ago, people got crushed on this board for posting model outputs

+7 days or more. Like 1 % of these fantasy storms ever come close to materializing. I think 

we are a tortured group :]

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22 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_57.png

Hahaha. I can't tell if runs like this are why I hate this hobby or adore it. 

A.  Snow band is tucked in pretty tight to the surface low on that depiction

B.  Can't believe I just commented on the 14 day GFS.

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1 hour ago, Malacka11 said:

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_57.png

Hahaha. I can't tell if runs like this are why I hate this hobby or adore it. 

Nice picture. Did you paint that yourself? 

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8 hours ago, Hoosier said:

A.  Snow band is tucked in pretty tight to the surface low on that depiction

B.  Can't believe I just commented on the 14 day GFS.

 The long range GFS was always good for laughs and nothing more, but even the ensembles in the long range of been absolutely terrible this season so far. Wild changes run to run. Really seems like we are going backwards instead of forwards in model land when it comes to accuracy.

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22 hours ago, IWXwx said:

The 12z Euro caved to the GFS, which literally takes the low right along the coast from Georgia to Maine, and also depicts a weak northern stream wave following it up through the Midwest.

Big Gulf to Lakes low is back on the 12z GFS.  

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1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Big Gulf to Lakes low is back on the 12z GFS.  

 

26 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

Look's like a whole lot of rain.  

 

It is, followed by windy SHSN which even per the GFS's own output amounts to very little south of NMI snow belts. I wish the models would just quit already with the teases. 

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1 hour ago, Snowstorms said:

Look's like a whole lot of rain.  

 

Does look like a limited snow producer unfortunately, even if it does take that kind of track.  Models have been flip flopping on track though.  

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45 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Does look like a limited snow producer unfortunately, even if it does take that kind of track.  Models have been flip flopping on track though.  

I agree, no consistency. Euro has a coaster. 

I feel like models tend to underplay CAD in these type of events, especially this far out. We got a pretty decent pool of cold air near Hudson Bay and a departing PV. Let's see. 

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