yoda Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: LWX sending up special 18z raob. Didn't see that mentioned in the AFD... guess you got notice through work? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 blue sky peeking out in Glen Burnie as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 Some sun now in Columbia Heights Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 Sun out around Fredericksburg and we’ve jumped up to 80 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 23 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: You've gotta wonder with those watch probabilities if hatching could be introduced at 20z. I want the hatched tornado at 2000 OTLK if we were magically going to get hatching Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Z-Cast Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 75F here in Bealeton, peeks of sun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 Wow! 80 in Fredericksburg...impressive. 68 here at noon. Currently 73. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmdwatcher Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 Looks like we are getting more unstable than those early morning outlooks forecasted. The sun is breaking through in Alexandria as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 IMO, south of US 50 to I-66 has the best tornado potential. More sustained pockets of sun and therefore the chance that something gets rooted on the surface instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 Sun in Jessup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 I see the 18z GSO sounding up on SPC... but no LWX yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 Clouds are moving faster than the sun can peek through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 Not to rain on anyone’s parade, but I don’t think a few pics of sunshine at 4 PM in late October are going to do much to destabilize the atmosphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 Glad the storms look to be holding off around here in Fairfax County until 9 or so. Kids can get out without getting soaked, and we can get settled in at home in time for the action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 Just now, WxUSAF said: Not to rain on anyone’s parade, but I don’t think a few pics of sunshine at 4 PM in late October are going to do much to destabilize the atmosphere. “The sun is dead” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 ENH remains at 2000 SPC OTLK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 SPC stays ENH at the 4pm update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 10 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Not to rain on anyone’s parade, but I don’t think a few pics of sunshine at 4 PM in late October are going to do much to destabilize the atmosphere. Be gone with your facts and logic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 First STW issued by LWX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 Mesonalysis shows 500-1000 j/kg sfc-based cape in our area, and the trends function shows it persisting or even increasing slightly ahead of the line. (No risk for temps dropping after sunset.) I'd still like to see the special Dulles raob to see how the instability is distributed within the column, but based on those values alone, I'm more ready to buy in to the idea of a lot of wind damage reports and a few QLCS TORs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 Sun and some blue sky amongst breaks in the clouds here now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 33 minutes ago, mattie g said: “The sun is dead” Until January when we want snow to stick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 Actually was a 19z sounding from LWX https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/soundings/19103119_OBS/ Shear is (as expected) very impressive. Instability is present - but nothing ground breaking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 New MCD sounds a bit ominous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 Just now, yoda said: New MCD sounds a bit ominous It seems to reduce the tornado wording a touch from the watch probabilities but yeah the "rapid increase" text is nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 Some sky-brightening looking SW from Columbia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 Garrett County dropped from the tornado watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 18 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Until January when we want snow to stick I always get ENH sun in January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 Pressure surge behind the line is intensifying. 4mb rises in 2 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 31, 2019 Share Posted October 31, 2019 TOR issued by LWX for Washington, MD and Allegany, MD and hampshire/hardy, wv Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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