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Tyler Penland

2019/2020 Mountains and Foothills Fall/Winter Thread.

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Yall are worried about snow, I'm gathering bait and tackle to fish at the mall parking lot on thursday in Boone.
Don't forget to set up your camera over on Deerfield to catch all the morons driving around the road closed signs and getting stuck.

Every. Time.
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1 hour ago, Tyler Penland said:

Don't forget to set up your camera over on Deerfield to catch all the morons driving around the road closed signs and getting stuck.

Every. Time.

Pool party at the Boone Mall!

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That is a beast of a NWF setup on the 3km NAM for Friday. Low bombing out on the Delmarv and plenty of moisture on the backside to be strained out. Wicked winds should push snowflakes into many of the valleys if this comes to fruition.

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44 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Models are backing off of the snow for the weekends showing less moisture

Just throw in the towel. Have you seen the indicies? Currently we are lucky to be tracking anything. The AO is through the roof lol! This winter has been very frustrating. 

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3 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said:

Its frustrating how its getting sheared out. Hopefully it will hold together a little longer as we move closer. 

Hopefully it will but virtually every model still gives us a couple inches.

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3 minutes ago, Sw NC weather said:

Hopefully it will but virtually every model still gives us a couple inches.

Yeah, the ukie was fairly amped too. Hopefully tomorrow and Friday it amps up a little more. It does look to be a little colder so we will have better rates. 

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Saturday has downshifted a bit, but Friday looks good NWF. Two small events, NWF and clipper ain't bad. Arguably it's even better skiing.

Friday looks juicier behind the main rain. Plus a short-wave is forecast so it is hybrid NWF and cyclonic flow aloft.

Saturday that short-wave is filling a bit, but the temp profiles look colder compared to forecast yesterday. Despite lower QPF, snow amounts are not that degraded mountains.

I'm not sure about a big time snow chase; but, I definitely like the skiing. These NC ski areas are specialists in artificial snow augmentation after rain. It'll be fine.

Still early on the track, Catty/Maggie vs Avery Co. Hopefully ALL! :ski:

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19 minutes ago, nrgjeff said:

Saturday has downshifted a bit, but Friday looks good NWF. Two small events, NWF and clipper ain't bad. Arguably it's even better skiing.

Friday looks juicier behind the main rain. Plus a short-wave is forecast so it is hybrid NWF and cyclonic flow aloft.

Saturday that short-wave is filling a bit, but the temp profiles look colder compared to forecast yesterday. Despite lower QPF, snow amounts are not that degraded mountains.

I'm not sure about a big time snow chase; but, I definitely like the skiing. These NC ski areas are specialists in artificial snow augmentation after rain. It'll be fine.

Still early on the track, Catty/Maggie vs Avery Co. Hopefully ALL! :ski:

Thanks for stopping by Jeff. The upslope snow looks really good currently so we shall see. As I mentioned earlier we are lucky to be tracking anything currently. 

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51 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said:

Its frustrating how its getting sheared out. Hopefully it will hold together a little longer as we move closer. 

This whole winter is frustrating but the only upside is that it is only February 5th...

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Things are looking a little dire for flooding this month.. Long range the Euro and GFS pump out tons of rain for the area.. 8-12 inches the next 2 weeks seem possible...

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5 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

That looks similar to last Friday’s event.. Euro said no flakes for anyone below 3,500 feet. Of course, euro corrected itself once snow was falling as far south as Easley SC lol

The difference in comparison to last event is the trajectory of moisture and the strength of the wave. Unless it starts trending stringer, there wont be enough moisture for anyone outside the smokes for more than a novelty snow shower or sprinkle. 

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The Euro looks pretty pitiful unless you live in or near the Smokies 

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Total snowfall looks alright for the two events.. lots of details still to hammer out, no certainties. but this is more interesting than most the things we have tracked this year.357186f1a2f691649d733c4f35c4ffa7.jpg&key=a0061af8570894bbc687e3d6b0e21dd0dbdfdd375997d57c6663cd663fcb8cde

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2 hours ago, wncsnow said:

Things are looking a little dire for flooding this month.. Long range the Euro and GFS pump out tons of rain for the area.. 8-12 inches the next 2 weeks seem possible...

You know that's not true , we can't forecast that much snow that far out , what makes you think we can with rain?

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7 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

You know that's not true , we can't forecast that much snow that far out , what makes you think we can with rain?

We almost always over-perform with rain here in Western NC. I have close to 10 inches in January so it wont take much to cause big issues 

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3 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

`18Z Nam now shows no snow at all for the weekend. Hopefully the up slope will over perform..

It’s the Nam at range, if it showed a foot of snow would we believe it. Most models show at least some snow so let’s just enjoy what we can get, I still believe the models will come in wetter in future runs.

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3 hours ago, Sw NC weather said:

It’s the Nam at range, if it showed a foot of snow would we believe it. Most models show at least some snow so let’s just enjoy what we can get, I still believe the models will come in wetter in future runs.

If it was a foot I would say it was its usual overamplification bias. The Nam showing nothing is a warning shot.

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12 minutes ago, AsheCounty48 said:

If it was a foot I would say it was its usual oversimplification bias. The Nam showing nothing is a warning shot.

Not really, it's the end of the nam..if it's still showing that within 36 hours its time to worry.

I'll wait till the nam and rgem get in their range.

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Robert has been laying down the painful truth on Facebook. Also talks about the flooding threat which I am very concerned 

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40 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Robert has been laying down the painful truth on Facebook. Also talks about the flooding threat which I am very concerned 

I’m glad he’s speaking truth now and not hyping phantom , blockbuster cold and snowy patterns

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