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2019/2020 Mountains and Foothills Fall/Winter Thread.


Tyler Penland
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Saturday has downshifted a bit, but Friday looks good NWF. Two small events, NWF and clipper ain't bad. Arguably it's even better skiing.

Friday looks juicier behind the main rain. Plus a short-wave is forecast so it is hybrid NWF and cyclonic flow aloft.

Saturday that short-wave is filling a bit, but the temp profiles look colder compared to forecast yesterday. Despite lower QPF, snow amounts are not that degraded mountains.

I'm not sure about a big time snow chase; but, I definitely like the skiing. These NC ski areas are specialists in artificial snow augmentation after rain. It'll be fine.

Still early on the track, Catty/Maggie vs Avery Co. Hopefully ALL! :ski:

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19 minutes ago, nrgjeff said:

Saturday has downshifted a bit, but Friday looks good NWF. Two small events, NWF and clipper ain't bad. Arguably it's even better skiing.

Friday looks juicier behind the main rain. Plus a short-wave is forecast so it is hybrid NWF and cyclonic flow aloft.

Saturday that short-wave is filling a bit, but the temp profiles look colder compared to forecast yesterday. Despite lower QPF, snow amounts are not that degraded mountains.

I'm not sure about a big time snow chase; but, I definitely like the skiing. These NC ski areas are specialists in artificial snow augmentation after rain. It'll be fine.

Still early on the track, Catty/Maggie vs Avery Co. Hopefully ALL! :ski:

Thanks for stopping by Jeff. The upslope snow looks really good currently so we shall see. As I mentioned earlier we are lucky to be tracking anything currently. 

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10 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

The Euro looks pretty pitiful unless you live in or near the Smokies 

sn10_024h.us_ma.png

That looks similar to last Friday’s event.. Euro said no flakes for anyone below 3,500 feet. Of course, euro corrected itself once snow was falling as far south as Easley SC lol

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5 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

That looks similar to last Friday’s event.. Euro said no flakes for anyone below 3,500 feet. Of course, euro corrected itself once snow was falling as far south as Easley SC lol

The difference in comparison to last event is the trajectory of moisture and the strength of the wave. Unless it starts trending stringer, there wont be enough moisture for anyone outside the smokes for more than a novelty snow shower or sprinkle. 

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2 hours ago, wncsnow said:

Things are looking a little dire for flooding this month.. Long range the Euro and GFS pump out tons of rain for the area.. 8-12 inches the next 2 weeks seem possible...

You know that's not true , we can't forecast that much snow that far out , what makes you think we can with rain?

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7 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

You know that's not true , we can't forecast that much snow that far out , what makes you think we can with rain?

We almost always over-perform with rain here in Western NC. I have close to 10 inches in January so it wont take much to cause big issues 

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3 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

`18Z Nam now shows no snow at all for the weekend. Hopefully the up slope will over perform..

It’s the Nam at range, if it showed a foot of snow would we believe it. Most models show at least some snow so let’s just enjoy what we can get, I still believe the models will come in wetter in future runs.

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3 hours ago, Sw NC weather said:

It’s the Nam at range, if it showed a foot of snow would we believe it. Most models show at least some snow so let’s just enjoy what we can get, I still believe the models will come in wetter in future runs.

If it was a foot I would say it was its usual overamplification bias. The Nam showing nothing is a warning shot.

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12 minutes ago, AsheCounty48 said:

If it was a foot I would say it was its usual oversimplification bias. The Nam showing nothing is a warning shot.

Not really, it's the end of the nam..if it's still showing that within 36 hours its time to worry.

I'll wait till the nam and rgem get in their range.

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