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September Discobs 2019

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47 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Euro and GGEM both have record shattering soul crushing heat next Thursday before a strong cold front. Upper 90s verbatim. GFS about 10 degrees colder, faster with the front, and has a very cool airmass behind it. 

+25F.  Sounds reasonable.

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38 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

Gosh darn it’s dry and terrible out.  We need a week of rain and then some legit fall cool air. 

Instead, you'll get 10 days of mid July heat without a drop of rain.

But, maybe then we'll get some fall air.  I suspect the models will back way off that strong cold front idea as we get closer.

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I say this fulling knowing that this isn't how the weather works, but I like the idea of getting hot and dry out of the way now.

It's made for a nicer year at UVA too. Less walking in the rain is a net positive, even with the heat.

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1 hour ago, DCTeacherman said:

Gosh darn it’s dry and terrible out.  We need a week of rain and then some legit fall cool air. 

You know what is really bad. I have been craving a thunderstorm or even just rain so much that I have had a Pandora station of thunderstorms/rain tracks playing the past few nights. 

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1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I say this fulling knowing that this isn't how the weather works, but I like the idea of getting hot and dry out of the way now.

It's made for a nicer year at UVA too. Less walking in the rain is a net positive, even with the heat.

How is school going by the way? Sophomore now?

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How is school going by the way? Sophomore now?


Thanks for asking! Yep, in my sophomore year at UVA. Things are going well, balancing been active on Grounds and keeping grades high. I still haven’t decided on a major but it’s heavily narrowed down... looking at some combination of politics/media studies/public policy.

Plan on taking a couple meteorology classes for fun. Basic Intro class last semester was good and it definitely filled in some gaps in my knowledge. Eyeing a Synoptics class next semester...
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17 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

I’d lock in the entire 12z gfs if I could. Dare I say rainy and a very cool start to October? 

The 18z was even better, but now it's back to dust.  We need some remnants through here.

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Hey! Water! From the sky! Wasn't home, but sometime between 5 and 7 pm enough fell to wet things down, and giant 0.01 in the CoCoRaHS gauge at 7 am lol. First measurable in 9 days.

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3 hours ago, nw baltimore wx said:

The 18z was even better, but now it's back to dust.  We need some remnants through here.

6z is dry again, but still shows fall arriving with a vengeance after the strong front next Thursday. 

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1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

6z is dry again, but still shows fall arriving with a vengeance after the strong front next Thursday. 

Let’s gooooo 12z GFS! Would probably be first frost verbatim for the suburbs next weekend after the heat. Still tamer in heat than euro and GGEM.

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1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

Let’s gooooo 12z GFS! Would probably be first frost verbatim for the suburbs next weekend after the heat. Still tamer in heat than euro and GGEM.

Don't you need moisture for frost? My yard has reached desert status.

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If the latest runs of the GFS are correct, not much chance of rain through the end of the month.

My current total is 0.48". That will probably end up being the Sept total.

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5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

GGEM moved toward the gfs for next week, but euro still a total blowtorch.

Seems the long range GFS is really pushing up the time table we make a full transition to Fall.  I would expect a warm rebound of course but maybe the worse of the heat is over after October 3 rd.  

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15 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Low of 51 this morning. High yesterday was 78. Looks like another nice day today with a high around 80.

What a difference cloud cover makes this time of the year.  Saturday and Sunday this past weekend was about 80 or so... but with the severe clear it felt like 90... yesterday was almost perfect in my opinion.. maybe 10 degrees cooler would be ideal.  For some reason I have grown to be intolerable of the sun.  I think it is all the previous Opiate abuse.

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16 hours ago, frd said:

Seems the long range GFS is really pushing up the time table we make a full transition to Fall.  I would expect a warm rebound of course but maybe the worse of the heat is over after October 3 rd.  

The LR look on the GEFS and now the EPS may lend some support to what the CanSIPS has been advertising for winter. I mentioned when the Sept run came out we wouldn't have to wait too long to see if it was onto something with the impressive HL blocking, as it has that general look as early as October. We are seeing the same tendency on the LR Euro and GFS now as we head into early October.

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From the latest from LWX:

(snip)
.CLIMATE...
Here are the rankings for driest Septembers on record.

Washington, DC area (Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport, DCA)
1. 0.11 inches (2019, so far)
   0.11 inches (2005)
3. 0.14 inches (1884)
4. 0.20 inches (1967)
5. 0.32 inches (1977)
1981-2010 normal monthly rainfall for September: 3.72 inches

Note: Weather records for the Washington, DC area have been kept at
what is now Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport (DCA) since
1941. The official weather record consists of that data back to
1945, and additional precipitation records observed in downtown
Washington, DC extend the period of record back to 1871.

Baltimore MD area (Baltimore-Washington International Thurgood
Marshall Airport, BWI)
1. 0.09 inches (1884)
2. 0.15 inches (2019, so far)
3. 0.21 inches (1967)
4. 0.32 inches (1906)
5. 0.35 inches (2007)
1981-2010 normal monthly rainfall for September: 4.03 inches

Note: Weather records for the Baltimore, MD area have been kept at
what is now Baltimore-Washington International Thurgood Marshall
Airport (BWI) since 1950. Additional precipitation records observed
in downtown Baltimore extend the period of record back to 1871.

Sterling/Dulles VA area (Washington Dulles International Airport, IAD)
1. 0.15 inches (2005)
2. 0.33 inches (2019, so far)
3. 0.62 inches (1967)
4. 0.78 inches (1978)
5. 0.93 inches (2014)
1981-2010 normal monthly rainfall for September: 3.92 inches

Note: Weather records for the Sterling/Dulles VA area have been kept
at what is now Washington Dulles International Airport (IAD) since
1960.
(snip)
 

 

 

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57 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Very nice evening and morning. 

Now, time to close the shades for the next 10 days.

Less than that. GFS and Euro both consistent with the strong FROPA next Thursday or so and both show a decent rain with it. Next Saturday morning could get into the 30s in the colder suburbs which would be a big departure from the 90s a few days earlier. 

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41 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Less than that. GFS and Euro both consistent with the strong FROPA next Thursday or so and both show a decent rain with it. Next Saturday morning could get into the 30s in the colder suburbs which would be a big departure from the 90s a few days earlier. 

LWX's AFD from this morning seems to suggest that the models are bringing the furnace next week

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure will push offshore Saturday as a cold front
approaches from the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes region. Once
again, moisture looks to be meager ahead of this front, so will
only carry low PoPs for this forecast.

Another area of high pressure will follow, this time building to
our south and west over the Tennessee Valley through early
next week, sending the aforementioned cold front back north as a
warm front. Long range models and ensembles have been
remarkably consistent with very strong and deep ridging
developing over the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS early next
week, which should result in a trend toward above to well above
normal temperatures.

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90s seem likely next Tuesday and Wednesday and possibly Thursday depending on front timings. GFS has some energy rotating over the top of the ridge into our area which could keep temps lower with clouds and maybe even showers.

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It's getting more easy for me to deal with the heat with each passing day because were getting closer to the months where 80's and 90's will be completely out of the picture. 

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