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September 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread

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4 hours ago, doncat said:

That's the same guy who posted very definitively "No more 90's" last Wednesday.

Post it? I never said that. I said we can get one or two... snowski said 3-5, Central Park got 2... 

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16 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

Post it? I never said that. I said we can get one or two... snowski said 3-5, Central Park got 2... 

I wasn't referring to anything you said.

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Next 8 days averaging 73degs., or about 4degs. AN.

Month to date is -1.6[70.2].     Should be +1.2[71.8] by the 17th.

67.2* here at 6am.

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Same old story this week. Brief warm up followed by another big Canadian high to cool things off again. 

 

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Same old story this week. Brief warm up followed by another big Canadian high to cool things off again. 

 

783BEDA9-146F-41B0-B257-C1E1704EC6E1.thumb.png.bf23e7c835f4bed5781ba19e7635d0ba.png

BC1375BF-759C-4CB9-B69E-3F66AE671377.thumb.png.769183959be1ac2aab97279f11982ca2.png

I’m hoping that’s a precursor for winter 

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1 hour ago, dmillz25 said:

I’m hoping that’s a precursor for winter 

We probably have to wait until October for the first clues. Last October we saw the dramatic SOI reversal and more Niña-like SST state west of the dateline. We’ll get to see if the current more Niño looking pattern can hold through this October. SOI currently continues negative with a developing WWB west of the dateline and most positive IOD since 2015.

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Some mets are signalling that around 9/22 another Hurricane Sandy may strike.      Deep trough in mid-west at that time may pull any storm available toward the EC.      It was the anomalous trough in 2012 that sucked Sandy toward us and then made it cold enough to snow in the N'oreaster a week later.

gfs_z500_vort_us_58.png

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2 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

Some mets are signalling that around 9/22 another Hurricane Sandy may strike.      Deep trough in mid-west at that time may pull any storm available toward the EC.      It was the anomalous trough in 2012 that sucked Sandy toward us and then make it cold enough to snow in the N'oreaster a week later.

gfs_z500_vort_us_58.png

there was also a strong -NAO and blocking high to our northeast for Sandy....

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A lot of forecasters are worried about a tropical system hitting the east coast next weekend with the pattern in place.  Way too far off to speculate. 

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7 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

A lot of forecasters are worried about a tropical system hitting the east coast next weekend with the pattern in place.  Way too far off to speculate. 

Ugh. I'm out of town next weekend with a flight back to LGA Sunday afternoon. Last thing I need is to be trapped in Pittsburgh in the midst of my lateral interviewing. <_<

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7 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said:

 

Ugh. I'm out of town next weekend with a flight back to LGA Sunday afternoon. Last thing I need is to be trapped in Pittsburgh in the midst of my lateral interviewing. <_<

It would be the following weekend like the 22nd-23rd

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15 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

It would be the following weekend like the 22nd-23rd

Yeah that's the weekend I'm talking about. I noticed the GFS last night had a Floyd redux for that Sunday and the 12z is showing a massive cane on a Dorian-like track (for our area, not further south).

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25 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said:

 

Ugh. I'm out of town next weekend with a flight back to LGA Sunday afternoon. Last thing I need is to be trapped in Pittsburgh in the midst of my lateral interviewing. <_<

 

17 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

It would be the following weekend like the 22nd-23rd

LOL- I would not get too worried either weekend....lot of hype out there

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48 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

Some mets are signalling that around 9/22 another Hurricane Sandy may strike.      Deep trough in mid-west at that time may pull any storm available toward the EC.      It was the anomalous trough in 2012 that sucked Sandy toward us and then make it cold enough to snow in the N'oreaster a week later.

gfs_z500_vort_us_58.png

Right now, the ensembles are not suggesting the kind of severe AO/NAO block that was in place prior to and up to Sandy's dramatic left-turn. That doesn't mean that a tropical cyclone can't threaten part of the East Coast, only that the probability of a Sandy-type scenario is probably a low one given the present guidance.

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10 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

 

LOL- I would not get too worried either weekend....lot of hype out there

The gfs just found out yesterday it was going to get hot this week

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2 hours ago, CIK62 said:

Some mets are signalling that around 9/22 another Hurricane Sandy may strike.      Deep trough in mid-west at that time may pull any storm available toward the EC.      It was the anomalous trough in 2012 that sucked Sandy toward us and then make it cold enough to snow in the N'oreaster a week later.

gfs_z500_vort_us_58.png

Any meteorologist who is calling for a Sandy like scenario at this juncture is pretty irresponsible. But with the pattern expected to be in place there is an increased risk for a tropical system to effect the east coast as others have already stated. 

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2 hours ago, CIK62 said:

Some mets are signalling that around 9/22 another Hurricane Sandy may strike.      Deep trough in mid-west at that time may pull any storm available toward the EC.      It was the anomalous trough in 2012 that sucked Sandy toward us and then made it cold enough to snow in the N'oreaster a week later.

gfs_z500_vort_us_58.png

Another sandy is not happening thankfully, we may get a storm that’s close but right now no model shows a storm even close to us!

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17 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

Another sandy is not happening thankfully, we may get a storm that’s close but right now no model shows a storm even close to us!

Never  say never

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Much warmer weather will push into the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas by mid-week. Overall, readings will then remain above to much above normal afterward for an extended period of time.

Earlier today, the temperature reached a near record 99° in Atlanta. That was the hottest September reading there since September 8, 1941 when the temperature also reached 99°. Today was also Atlanta's 72nd day on which the temperature reached 90° or above. That is tied with 1943 for Atlanta's 11th highest annual figure on record. Records go back to 1879.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around September 4. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.52°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.10°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions are in place in Region 3.4 with neutral-cool conditions in place in Region 1+2. There remains uncertainty about the ENSO evolution later this fall. The outcome could have significant winter season implications. The CFSv2 has recently shifted toward a warm-neutral/borderline weak El Niño signal for the winter.

The SOI was -21.51 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.174.

Since 1950, there have been five prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both July and August: 1950, 1958, 1960, 1968, and 2015. The average temperature for September was 69.1° (69.8° after adjusting for ongoing warming) and 58.9° (59.6° adjusted) for September through November in New York City. The 1981-2010 baseline normal figures are 68.0° and 57.5° respectively. The majority of cases saw a warmer than normal September and all cases featured a warmer than normal fall.

Therefore, a warmer than normal September and fall appear likely. The potential for autumn 2019 to rank among the 30 warmest cases on record remains on the table.

The latest EPS weeklies are hinting that an extended period of above to much above normal readings could prevail after mid-September. It remains plausible that September 2019 could have a mean temperature of 70.0° or above in New York City.

On September 8, the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.495 (RMM). The September 7-adjusted amplitude was 1.101.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, the implied probability of New York City having a warmer than normal September is approximately 66%.

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8 hours ago, Snow88 said:

Never  say never

Not in your lifetime. Best bet is another Irene, maybe a 1944 or 38 at worst within the next 50 years. 

A Gloria is most likely sometime within the next 5-10 years. 

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Next 8 days are averaging 74degs., or about 6degs. AN. 

Month to date is  -1.3[70.3].       Should be  +2.1[72.0] by the 18th.

70.2* here at 6am.

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Still on track for a brief warm up next few days as the warm spots may approach 90. But followed by another cool down with the next big Canadian high. What a difference a year makes as Newark reached 98 last September. That was the 4th highest September maximum temperature at Newark.

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Sep
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Highest Max Temperature 
Missing Count
2019 90 21
2018 98 0
2017 92 0
2016 94 0
2015 98 0
2014 95 0
2013 96 0
2012 92 0
2011 88 0
2010 98 0
Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Sep
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Highest Max Temperature 
Missing Count
1 1953 105 0
2 1993 100 0
3 1983 99 0
4 2018 98 0
- 2015 98 0
- 2010 98 0
- 1980 98 0

 

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sandy had one of the strongest ao/nao blocks in front of it...it will never happen without a strong block...between 2009-2013 there were many blocking periods...recently the ao/nao has become positive and hopefully that will reverse by December...

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8 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Not in your lifetime. Best bet is another Irene, maybe a 1944 or 38 at worst within the next 50 years. 

A Gloria is most likely sometime within the next 5-10 years. 

Smh

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