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George BM

August Discobs 2019

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I’m not sure what relevance the “youth” have but LWX definitely does overwarn. Ian and others on Twitter discussed it just recently, and it doesn’t take a met to see that LWX often warns sub-severe stuff.

In a busy metro area where it isn’t hard to see tree damage, I get it, but it’s overdone. Ian mentioned tiered warnings, IIRC, which I certainly wouldn’t mind. Likely confusing to the general populace.

Totally off-topic, but a heck of a storm season we’ve been having. Been busy. Somewhat jealous I’m still not back in town!

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5 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I’m not sure what relevance the “youth” have but LWX definitely does overwarn. Ian and others on Twitter discussed it just recently, and it doesn’t take a met to see that LWX often warns sub-severe stuff.

In a busy metro area where it isn’t hard to see tree damage, I get it, but it’s overdone. Ian mentioned tiered warnings, IIRC, which I certainly wouldn’t mind. Likely confusing to the general populace.

Totally off-topic, but a heck of a storm season we’ve been having. Been busy. Somewhat jealous I’m still not back in town!

Here is what I texted my kid in response to Alexandria alert last night: 

11:08 pm June 19 2019 : " The National Weather Service has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Alexandria. Seek indoor shelter immediately." No such happened. I want to know what this was based upon. Folks, in the end, you are crying wolf when we need to be not so.

 

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8 minutes ago, WeatherLovingDoc said:

Here is what I texted my kid in response to Alexandria alert last night: 

11:08 pm June 19 2019 : " The National Weather Service has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Alexandria. Seek indoor shelter immediately." No such happened. I want to know what this was based upon. Folks, in the end, you are crying wolf when we need to be not so.

 

While I concede that LWX can be a little trigger-happy on the warnings, you seem to be asking for a level of precision that simply is not available given the current state of the science.  Thunderstorms are inherently unpredictable--in where and when they form, how strong they become, and when they decay.  The best meteorologists can do is issue warnings for an area that appears to be at risk for severe weather. Occasionally that risk will manifest; most times it won't.  The alternative is to only warn storms they are certain will be severe, which will mean that the vast majority of storms that produce severe weather will go unwarned.

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1 hour ago, mattie g said:

Honestly...meh.

On the north edge as things consolidated to our south. Ended up with maybe 10 minutes of moderate rain.

Seriously...I’m not complaining just to complain. It really was underwhelming.

Quoting myself in order to get @yoda‘s take on this one.

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57 minutes ago, yoda said:

Leesburg storm now warned for 70mph gusts

That storm has weakened but is it ever presenting here an ominous look to the W/NW. Plus CG strokes out in front, prolly in Great Falls area now. 

This would be the third one of the day, although the second one was not much. Still, a bit reminiscent of June 4, 2008; one of my favorite severe days ever. Today doesn't compare to that, but the multiple rounds after the big one that comes through in the mid/late afternoon does reflect the pattern. Back then of course we had five or six rounds, it seemed; it didn't calm down until after midnight, IIRC. 

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49 minutes ago, Mrs.J said:

No storms close to me but just got a big thunder clap out of no where. Sun is back lighting the clouds to my East and the colors are vibrant. Getting more thunder.

These storms have indeed had strikes far from the rain column.  I snapped this image right after a strike hit my building at work this afternoon. What would be considered the classic storm core was 8 miles to the north and we were in full sun. 

273DD8FD-0A7C-45F8-B441-E89FF2B25AE2.thumb.png.898b47f6231e75374d0f2d108ea5e469.png

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I appreciate where you experts are coming from. No sirs and madams on local, I am wondering where local "true risks"abound"such that our phones go off" in all hours all hours of the day and night then nothing happens. Imho: if it doesn't occur, we weaken our stance.


 

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1 hour ago, WeatherLovingDoc said:

I appreciate where you experts are coming from. No sirs and madams on local, I am wondering where local "true risks"abound"such that our phones go off" in all hours all hours of the day and night then nothing happens. Imho: if it doesn't occur, we weaken our stance.

You may want to consider asking your son to turn off the alerts.

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