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Is next winter looking like a disaster?


Ji
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9 hours ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

It's been a different pattern - It's rained in SF something like 3 times in 4 years (just an example, probably not accurate). Alaska is warm I bet because of the population. etc. It could be different for everyone, I guess. It's already a much different pattern from last Winter, Anchorage AK broke their July record by 2 degrees. 

trying hard to follow here, but its nonsense gobbly gook to me

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On 9/10/2019 at 3:21 PM, showmethesnow said:

Here's something you don't see everyday. A hurricane wedged between two very deep cutoffs (534 mb, 537 mb) blocked underneath some impressive height builds in Canada. Omen for this winter? :o

Omen.gif.36889746c84dd63e5b02de01c75f818a.gif

I'm pretty sure I saw this satellite image in "the day after tomorrow"

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36 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

There has been persistence there. Guidance seems to be pointing towards a warm neutral/weak Nino for fall into winter at this point. Looks like a decent bet we avoid a Nina this winter.

But wait a minute...if that happens, couldn't we be in the same boat as last year? (Like the weak Niño getting pushed around by whatever factor and making the models go all over the place?) How do the models usually handle warm neutrals? (of course, avoiding a nina is always a good thing!)

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4 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

But wait a minute...if that happens, couldn't we be in the same boat as last year? (Like the weak Niño getting pushed around by whatever factor and making the models go all over the place?) How do the models usually handle warm neutrals? (of course, avoiding a nina is always a good thing!)

That's not how it works. Last year the Nino developed way late, it was pretty diffuse, and the MJO was on steroids. There were other factors- the QBO was headed in the wrong direction, the EPO, the PDO phase/strength, etc. There are always multiple factors that combine to influence the ultimate outcome (of winter).

In our region, we generally always want a Nino over a Nina. Increases the chances for -EPO/+PNA, i.e. ridging in favorable locations, encourages a more active southern stream, among other things. Exception might be a strong Nino vs. say a weak Nina, in some cases.

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8 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

But wait a minute...if that happens, couldn't we be in the same boat as last year? (Like the weak Niño getting pushed around by whatever factor and making the models go all over the place?) How do the models usually handle warm neutrals? (of course, avoiding a nina is always a good thing!)

I agree with cape. If ALL the factors stayed the same yes. But the weak nino wasn’t the problem. It’s just it wasn’t dominant enough to offset other negative factors. The mjo was the biggest problem. I’ll take my chances with another weak modoki nino and roll the dice that other things don’t line up to hurt us again. 

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28 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I agree with cape. If ALL the factors stayed the same yes. But the weak nino wasn’t the problem. It’s just it wasn’t dominant enough to offset other negative factors. The mjo was the biggest problem. I’ll take my chances with another weak modoki nino and roll the dice that other things don’t line up to hurt us again. 

Eh, it is still better than getting a nina...I had focused more on the weak nino as the problem since many of the other weak ninos finished with similar snowfall totals at BWI (15"-18"). Could we say that weak ninos underperform more often because they tend to be less dominant and more susceptible to negative factors overall? (and how many 20"+ weak ninos do we have, I wonder...)

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On 9/12/2019 at 12:03 PM, C.A.P.E. said:

There has been persistence there. Guidance seems to be pointing towards a warm neutral/weak Nino for fall into winter at this point. Looks like a decent bet we avoid a Nina this winter.

The warm pool near the date line as modeled supports this, so no surprise there.  

 

 

 

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Dive continues 

 

image.png.5f170de0bfb12272cc3413cae6c2412b.png

 

 

 

 

30 day Av. SOI red_icon.png
90 day Av. SOI yellow_icon.png
Daily contribution green_icon.png
Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI
13 Sep 2019 1013.56 1016.10 -28.88 -10.70 -8.55
12 Sep 2019 1014.46 1016.25 -24.42 -10.34 -8.18
11 Sep 2019 1015.25 1014.90 -11.70 -9.91 -7.91
10 Sep 2019 1014.70 1014.25 -11.11 -9.63 -7.72
9 Sep 2019 1013.50 1014.80 -21.51 -9.19 -7.49
8 Sep 2019 1013.95 1015.15 -20.92 -7.80 -7.03
7 Sep 2019 1014.10 1014.35 -15.27 -6.34 -6.71
6 Sep 2019 1014.09 1013.55 -10.58 -5.17 -6.55
5 Sep 2019 1013.81 1013.60 -12.54 -4.27 -6.55
4 Sep 2019 1013.73 1013.90 -14.79 -3.66 -6.54
3 Sep 2019 1013.36 1013.85 -16.70 -3.23 -6.43
2 Sep 2019 1012.96 1014.15 -20.86 -3.06 -6.33
1 Sep 2019 1013.31 1013.40 -14.32 -2.99 -6.29
31 Aug 2019 1013.01 1013.35 -11.90 -3.00 -6.32
30 Aug 2019 1012.61 1014.40 -20.70 -2.85 -6.22
29 Aug 2019 1014.44 1015.30 -15.05 -2.05 -6.07
28 Aug 2019 1015.17 1014.90 -8.19 -1.22 -6.10
27 Aug 2019 1015.16 1013.85 -1.88 -0.64 -6.12
26 Aug 2019 1014.85 1013.20 0.18 -0.61 -6.17
25 Aug 2019 1014.30 1013.55 -5.28 -0.40 -6.33
24 Aug 2019 1015.25 1014.80 -7.10 -0.03 -6.48
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I hate seasonal models but if you want a feeling this far out it looks pretty grim for snow in the Mid Atlantic.

Seems the general atmospheric set up portrayed by the various models and super model blends look to favor a Western  Winter and cold and snowy up in the Great Plains. Maybe the continued tendency for a warmer climate is making it harder and harder for winters to deliver below 40 North.

A warm snow-less winter in these parts would not surprise me, nor would a complete failure of the models leading to a more traditional cold and snowier winter in the East. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

That’s a whole lot of red everywhere...  I’ll keep the rest of my thoughts to myself so as to avoid a debate I’d rather not have in here. Cue Avant Regent Vice Hiatus in 3...2...1...

Look at the advertised lack of snow for the far west lol. California in trouble.

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