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bluewave

July 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread

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41 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Ooof. Wife has a tough mudder race on Saturday. Looks way too hot for that. Block Island the only place to go for relief...

Long Island is already having one of its warmest Julys before the major heat arrives. Islip is currently in 3rd place. We are the warmest part of the region relative to the means with ISP at +4.3.

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 1999 78.6 0
2 2013 78.0 0
- 2010 78.0 0
3 2019 77.8 17
4 2011 77.6 0
5 1994 77.3 0
6 2016 76.8 0
7 1966 76.3 0
8 2012 76.2 0
9 2008 75.9 0
- 2006 75.9 0
- 1995 75.9 0
10 2015 75.8 0

 

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11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Long Island is already having one of its warmest Julys before the major heat arrives. Islip is currently in 4th place. We are the warmest part of the region relative to the means with ISP at +4.3.

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 1999 78.6 0
2 2013 78.0 0
- 2010 78.0 0
4 2019 77.8 17

The amazing thing, yesterday near shore waters were down right frigid with relatively strong west winds. So some of our warmest beach days have that cold dark upwelled water.

What do you think the chances are of us actually having a good soaking this week? We are officially drying out on the south shore  

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17 hours ago, SACRUS said:

Southern half of the state dealt with quite hazy and cloudy conditions.  Made to 91 here closer to the New Brunswick reading than TTN here.  It hasn’t been the two weeks of 88,89 for sure .  

 

The 90s should be ineluctable this coming week here. We've had a few unlucky breaks with hitting 90 locally so far, between clouds and other issues.

A pleasant 60.1F this morning after 89F yesterday, and 78F now. Nice diurnal swings. 

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8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Long Island is already having one of its warmest Julys before the major heat arrives. Islip is currently in 4th place. We are the warmest part of the region relative to the means with ISP at +4.4.

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 1999 78.6 0
2 2013 78.0 0
- 2010 78.0 0
4 2019 77.8 17

Wow. Record may be broken. Mean Avg temp for July here is 77, cooler than ISP. Although wunderground now only calculates to the nearest whole number, so i cant see the decimals. 

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22 minutes ago, Isotherm said:

 

The 90s should be ineluctable this coming week here. We've had a few unlucky breaks with hitting 90 locally so far, between clouds and other issues.

A pleasant 60.1F this morning after 89F yesterday, and 78F now. Nice diurnal swings. 

You always compare yourself to Trenton right? They have 6 90 degree days this year. Odd that you have 1, less than any site in the area. Maybe a siting issue?

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37 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

The amazing thing, yesterday near shore waters were down right frigid with relatively strong west winds. So some of our warmest beach days have that cold dark upwelled water.

What do you think the chances are of us actually having a good soaking this week? We are officially drying out on the south shore  

i was a cedar and the waters didnt seem cold at all. Maybe compared to the hot air it felt cold to you with the contrast in temps?

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24 minutes ago, psv88 said:

i was a cedar and the waters didnt seem cold at all. Maybe compared to the hot air it felt cold to you with the contrast in temps?

This was more in comparison to during the week when winds were light onshore and water temps were In the mid 70s. They were mid 60s yesterday at Jones Beach. I doubt there was much variability between jones and cedar. You must just like chilly water!

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1 hour ago, psv88 said:

You always compare yourself to Trenton right? They have 6 90 degree days this year. Odd that you have 1, less than any site in the area. Maybe a siting issue?

 

Nope. Sited very well within open field, 40+ feet away from structures, DVP2 plus, wireless FARS, and exposed to the sun, sunrise to sunset.  I have had 5 89F days, some of them literally a couple tenths from 89.5. So we're probably talking about 0.5F or less differential. Additionally, a few of the TTN 90F days happened to be ELY flow/onshore flow days, which kept me slightly lower as I'm quite a bit closer to the ocean than TTN. So we've had a couple of strange breaks.

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1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

This was more in comparison to during the week when winds were light onshore and water temps were In the mid 70s. They were mid 60s yesterday at Jones Beach. I doubt there was much variability between jones and cedar. You must just like chilly water!

The water was a bit cool right on shore (Tobay). It certainly didn't feel like 75, which is what both Buoys were reading.

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3 hours ago, psv88 said:

You are 74? That's cooler than any site in the metro area lol. Do you put the sprinklers on in the morning? Your PWs looked to be on the grass/flower bed, so i assume you irrigate. 

 

80 here

My backyard is all dirt currently, all the grass and bushes ripped up.  Waiting on fence guy & then new sprinkler system and sod goes in.  Don't mind the unicorn on my deck, haha!

Currently 83.5 now.

backyard.thumb.jpg.4383278b7effca49a6a7731950267afd.jpg

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11 minutes ago, tdp146 said:

The water was a bit cool right on shore (Tobay). It certainly didn't feel like 75, which is what both Buoys were reading.

West winds really upwell. You can see the difference in the water color. The dark brown water is colder water from down deep. All you have to do is go a couple hundred yards offshore and the water is green and significantly warmer.

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2 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

This was more in comparison to during the week when winds were light onshore and water temps were In the mid 70s. They were mid 60s yesterday at Jones Beach. I doubt there was much variability between jones and cedar. You must just like chilly water!

Interesting. I don't usually like cold water at all. Maybe it was just so hot i didnt mind it. It was brutal

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35 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

West winds really upwell. You can see the difference in the water color. The dark brown water is colder water from down deep. All you have to do is go a couple hundred yards offshore and the water is green and significantly warmer.

Happens alot down in S Jersey where I vacation every year seen it go from 75-78 to low 60's...to top if off- you get the green flies from the bay on the west winds too...

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the major heat is still coming but thursday looks wetter and cooler with barry's remnants having trended stronger on the euro

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19 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

the major heat is still coming but thursday looks wetter and cooler with barry's remnants having trended stronger on the euro

Yeah this is looking more like a Friday-Monday event rather than Thursday-Sunday. The 12z suite has relief arriving in the Tuesday-Wednesday timeframe.

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53 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

the major heat is still coming but thursday looks wetter and cooler with barry's remnants having trended stronger on the euro

12z ECMWF indicates 95F+ for most four consecutive days, Fri-Mon. There may also be some isolated 95F highs tomorrow and Wednesday in the warmer locations in NJ.

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54 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

the major heat is still coming but thursday looks wetter and cooler with barry's remnants having trended stronger on the euro

Been tracking the track and timing if the remnants and see a scenario where clouds and storms come in Wed PM and linger into Thu. 

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10 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Relief will be 89-92 instead of 95-100+

Still toasty....seems like a long time ago when it was rainy and cool in June....

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Barry is finally producing the expected torrential rainfall totals. But it took longer to get going that models forecast. Looks like part of the theme for us with models increasing heavy rainfall potential today. Tropical PWATS make a run on 2.50” for the region. That would be close to the July record in our area should it verify.

LOUISIANA...
RAGLEY 4 S                           23.43                    
OBERLIN 1 SSW                        15.70      

7F9757E5-F06E-4867-BD56-75B6D16B6F68.png.5a4761c3793d19e5628f2e1725453d62.png

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Just now, bluewave said:

Barry is finally producing the expected torrential rainfall totals. But it took longer to get going that models forecast. Looks like part of the theme for us with models increasing heavy rainfall potential today. Tropical PWATS make a run on 2.50” for the region. That would be close to the July record in our area should it verify.

LOUISIANA...
RAGLEY 4 S                           23.43                    
OBERLIN 1 SSW                        15.70      

the euro has four days of dewpoints near 80, peaking monday

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/new-jersey/dewpoint-f/20190722-1800z.html

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1 minute ago, bluewave said:

I saw that. That would mean some of the highest heat indices since the 1990’s. 

what's the record for consecutive days with 80f dewpoints at jfk?

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In part due to historic heat in parts of Europe (where more extreme heat could develop next week), the GISS global temperature anomaly for June was +0.93°C. That surpassed the June record of +0.82°C, which was set in 2016. The January-June 2019 period ranks 3rd warmest on record.

In the East, the heat has yet to be severe. However, that is about to change later this week. Consistent with the pattern suggested by historic MJO cases, some of the hottest weather so far this season appears likely to develop during the second half of July. The Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions could experience a heat wave during the second half of this week. The potential for one or two days with high temperatures of 95° or above is on the table.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.4°C for the week centered around July 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.23°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.57°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions are now evolving. There is considerable uncertainty about the ENSO evolution later this summer into the fall. Some of the guidance now shows the development of neutral-cool ENSO conditions.

The SOI was -15.02 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.650. Blocking could largely persist through much of the remainder of July.

Blocking is consistent with warmth on the East Coast during the middle and latter part of summer. Already, even as the July 1-10 period saw a preliminary AO average of -1.108, readings were above and much above normal in the Middle Atlantic region. Should blocking generally persist, a warm or perhaps very warm second half of summer is likely.

Since 1950, there was only a single year that saw the AO average -1.000 or below in May and -0.500 or below in June (the preliminary June 2019 average was -0.665): 1993. 1993 featured much above normal readings in the East during the late summer (August 15-September 15 period) and predominantly cooler than normal readings across the western third of the nation during much of the summer. Some of the early guidance for August hints at above to possibly much above normal readings in parts of the Northeast.

On July 14, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 0.838 (RMM). The July 13-adjusted amplitude was 1.088.

The first half of July was much warmer than normal in New York City and much of the Middle Atlantic region. In Central Park, the July 1-15 mean temperature was 79.0° (18th warmest on record). Records for New York City go back to 1869. In Philadelphia, the mean temperature was 79.7° (15th warmest on record). Records in Philadelphia go back to 1872. In Washington, DC, the July 1-15 mean temperature was 81.1° (19th warmest on record). Records for Washington, DC go back to 1871.

The second half of July will very likely see a continuation of the generally much warmer than normal readings in much of the Middle Atlantic region. Since 1974 when MJO data was first recorded, there have been 6 cases (1988, 1996, 2004, 2008, 2010, and 2013) when the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for 4 or more days during the July 1-10 period. The average temperature for those cases in New York City was 78.2° (1.7° above normal). The latest guidance suggests a mean temperature near 80.0°. In 4/6 (67%) cases, there was at least one heat wave during the July 16-31 period and 4/6 (67%) those cases had a peak temperature of 95° or above during that period.

The implied probability of a warmer than normal July in New York City is currently 80%.

 

 

 

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10 hours ago, uofmiami said:

74.2 here on the N Shore currently, I’ll probably finish around 85 or so for the day. If N wind is strong enough S Shore could over-perform, otherwise inland has best shot of being above forecasted highs IMO. 

Ended up with a high of 86.3 for today.

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