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weatherwiz

June 2019 Discussion

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There is nothing oppressive about this weather pattern, this upcoming week included.

You need to be in the mid 80s with dews in the mid 60s before you can pull out that term.

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14 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

I feel like it's been like that for years now.... the country bakes in searing heat... except for new england 

Really? We have had some hot Jul-Aug recently. 

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Cold, dry summer for all. No heat, no dews, no canes, not even a thundershower. First frost late Aug, and it's basically winter.

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4 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said:

Cold, dry summer for all. No heat, no dews, no canes, not even a thundershower. First frost late Aug, and it's basically winter.

Lots of spare time to change avatars?

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2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

There is nothing oppressive about this weather pattern, this upcoming week included.

You need to be in the mid 80s with dews in the mid 60s before you can pull out that term.

eh...I would even say like lower 90's with mid 60's dews for oppressive or mid 80's with lower 70's dews. 

Anyways...

there is no signals screaming sustained "heat". Part of the issue with this trainwreck of a thread is terms are being used that don't have clear-cut definition. There have been no clear-cut signals suggesting sustained heat either...unless you're just rip and reading 180-hr 2M temperature forecasts. Sure...maybe in the medium-range we've seen some signals of ridging well north but once the models correct the idea is tossed away...all you have to do is understand the northern hemispheric circulation...as long as there is that low/trough signals to our north no sustained heat is coming.

In terms of oppressive humidity...not happening. Maybe a day or two hear and there but that is nothing uncommon and does not defined the summer as "oppressive". mT airmasses into our region are common during the summer. We are supposed to have conditons which are more humid than not and periods of oppressive humidity. What is uncommon, however, if to have sustained periods of oppressive humidity...and let's define oppressive as dews > 73F (it seems like the common threshold is 70-73). 

Climo now across New England is probably upper 70's to lower 80's for highs and somewhere in the range of 50's for low (mid-to-upper?). In terms of temperatures we've seen nothing special. What has been "special" about this pattern is the frequent rainfall opportunities and anomalous blocking.

 

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Might not be much rain at all tomorrow. Seems like more NYC south, with SNE getting nuisance stuff. Better chance with low approaching Thursday.

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Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I’ll back Scooty and Wizzy while some back Cranky. 

I can't speak for Jul and Aug...but I don't see dews and heat during these next two weeks. The occasional day or two? Sure..but doesn't look prolonged...like several days of 88-94 with dews in the 70s.  I could see late month getting some warmer and more humid days.

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11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Might not be much rain at all tomorrow. Seems like more NYC south, with SNE getting nuisance stuff. Better chance with low approaching Thursday.

Sort of seems like the best lift/forcing is south of us. Sort of tough to gauge but there even appeared to be some hints at some weak subsidence 

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31 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Lots of spare time to change avatars?

Cold and dry until winter, then we go AN with dews?

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The Northeast just seems to be in a favorable location for amplification of troughs for the foreseeable feature. The Euro and GFS continue to advertise 50-70 knots MLJ streaks developing rounding the base of the amplifying troughs...that's a bit impressive for what's going to be moving into July. 

I kinda find it hard-pressed to believe though we don't see at least one significant severe weather event. If we can somehow reconfigure the surface while maintain what's happening aloft...it's also inevitable to not have at least the set-up there. Anytime you see a strong W to WNW flow aloft you gotta watch. If that ridge builds into the northern Plains and upper-Midwest we'll be on MCS alert.  

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23 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said:

we ..I..

It's been a tough spring for the KV3 and the NODEWS. I'm looking forward to getting some legit mugginess in here though. The annuals are growing like shiat.

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2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Might not be much rain at all tomorrow. Seems like more NYC south, with SNE getting nuisance stuff. Better chance with low approaching Thursday.

Then the 12z NAM  came out

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1 hour ago, Dr. Dews said:

Cold and dry until winter, then we go AN with dews?

 

2 hours ago, Dr. Dews said:

Cold, dry summer for all. No heat, no dews, no canes, not even a thundershower. First frost late Aug, and it's basically winter.

I've seen this posted at least a dozen times in the past several days. 

Summer is going to come, just relax and wait for it.  Right now, enjoy the low dews and 70s to low 80s. 

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3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

 

I've seen this posted at least a dozen times in the past several days. 

Summer is going to come, just relax and wait for it.  Right now, enjoy the low dews and 70s to low 80s. 

The pattern is getting to few on here.

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9 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

 

I've seen this posted at least a dozen times in the past several days. 

Summer is going to come, just relax and wait for it.  Right now, enjoy the low dews and 70s to low 80s. 

This IS Summer.  We take 75/60 all day.

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Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

This IS Summer.  We take 75/60 all day.

Yeah no complaints and it's been an awesome stretch of weather.... another full sun day today.

Low of 43F this morning, now up to 68/46... not swimming weather but for hiking and wandering the mountains it is damn near perfect.

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2 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Agree and it's because some think it should be hot and humid by 4/15.

I think a few image.png.8b69d7a6e5e1fb1eff84e417c08cc420.png a little earlier this year.

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10 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I think a few image.png.8b69d7a6e5e1fb1eff84e417c08cc420.png a little earlier this year.

It is similar to getting angry at the lack of big snowstorms by December 15th.

But when you start expecting them on October 15th... yeah you might get a bit more impatient by 12/15.

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5 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

It is similar to getting angry at the lack of big snowstorms by December 15th.

But when you start expecting them on October 15th... yeah you might get a bit more impatient by 12/15.

Seems like the same person gets angry at that too?

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Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

This IS Summer.  We take 75/60 all day.

So far it's been a nice summer. I've seen more people outside doing things this summer than at any time during the last summer. 

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