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weatherwiz

June 2019 Discussion

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Like Steve and I and others have said, summer begins around the solstice, not 6/1.  This year the weather is right on schedule.

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7 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Like Steve and I and others have said, summer begins around the solstice, not 6/1.  This year the weather is right on schedule.

Some have been calling for summer since 03/01 but typically summer weather starts around Memorial Day for us in the SW zones so we a couple weeks behind here. Out there in your hood with marine puke I would imagine summer starts later. 

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6z gfs for the 4th would be very funny if correct. But the idea of the maritime low coming back after a brief warmup next week is legit. 

We are still seeing ridging setup over TX and the plains for the start of summer so biggest heat is to our SW. Nothing has changed to deviate from this, unless you believe Cranky and his track record. 

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4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

6z gfs for the 4th would be very funny if correct. But the idea of the maritime low coming back after a brief warmup next week is legit. 

We are still seeing ridging setup over TX and the plains for the start of summer so biggest heat is to our SW. Nothing has changed to deviate from this, unless you believe Cranky and his track record. 

Still pretty warm though verbatim. I can't tell if a front will be over our fannies, but the first week of July looks seasonable, if not warm. 

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25 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Like Steve and I and others have said, summer begins around the solstice, not 6/1.  This year the weather is right on schedule.

Can you recall any specific years where SNE has not had any sort of multi day torch between May 1 and June 24?  

It has been an unusual spring.   

Edit...I added the multi day part

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9 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said:

Wow, crankiness levels are really maxing out lately, and it's not that hot yet.

Huh, I thought this place was full of crankiness about the lack of HHH and bitter ACATT name calling by the wishcasters.

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Looks like CNE sees some torrential pourdowns and maybe flooding. Hopefully most of us can cash in tomorrow pm/night and keep things moist.

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This persistency appears slated to an 'asymptotic' termination ( to me ) ... It could break the other way toward more longitudinal flow construct and expanded subtropical ridging sending dragon farts across the continent - nothing's impossible in this business ..in fact, stochastic.  

However, I would really keep the slow pattern death idea in mind/consider it...  

The models tending to re-gather the Maritime 'rasp' configuration is plausible ... yup. You bet!  But let's not over sell it, either.  Scott or whomever that was is right... it's still warm, at least "er" ... The look over the next two weeks may also allow brief hotter pulses that break away from the midwest and rumble through with thunder... lot's of summery possibilities there. And yes, cool misty day in between.   

On the flip side ... not sure why there is this other idea that it's suddenly going very hot this year? 

It may ... sure.  but I also don't see any particular reason why big numbers have to become common place .... particularly when noting the first statement, that all indications and acknowledgement of tenors in both verification and modeling, to date, all really do suggest this terminates very gradually ... Which means at times, cool offsets that of course interfere with any kind of heat persistence. The gradual decline is also showing up in the models ... with the 'frequency' of Maritime changes increasing ... just yet to truly realize. 

I kind of like the idea of hot August ... Just in deference to that 'slow termination' scheme... seems a good round -about estimation. If you want big numbers and records and all that...July would be better. But ...meh, there's been plenty of 102's in August.  

There really seems to be some sort of emergence for the greater globular interplay of physical processes with that thing. It is behaving more like a nodal depression results there - think default.  Looking at the recent D7 + ranged Euro depictions in the domain between roughly 100W and southern Greenland.. we have to remember the layouts are stereographic projection... That trough is actually reaching W across the NW Atlantic Basin.  It seems to be almost absorbing any wave spaces that attempt to disrupt it. .. It's kind of like dealing with a athlete's foot...  You use lotion and treat it and it seems to have gone away... but if you don't keep treating it, it comes back.  You have to wait two weeks of bombarding treatment even after the symptoms have alleviated and there's no trace, or it will well right back up again.  That's what this weird lower Maritime thing seems to be... It just comes back ..but something about the larger scaled hemispheric operation is defaulting that region.  interesting -

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I agree John...it looks AN regardless. It may end up like a couple weekends ago where the euro has some semblance of a thermal gradient up through Maine with the 50/50 lower heights lurking at d5 and it verified as warm and sunny the entire weekend. So maybe we can compress the airmass a bit and squeeze out some 88-90/65 type stuff. 

Thankfully I’ve never had athlete’s foot. 

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5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I agree John...it looks AN regardless. It may end up like a couple weekends ago where the euro has some semblance of a thermal gradient up through Maine with the 50/50 lower heights lurking at d5 and it verified as warm and sunny the entire weekend. So maybe we can compress the airmass a bit and squeeze out some 88-90/65 type stuff. 

Thankfully I’ve never had athlete’s foot. 

Haha lol  

the atmosphere has a festering case of it between 70W and 50W by roughly 40N to 60N

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3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Haha lol  

the atmosphere has a festering case of it between 70W and 50W by roughly 40N to 60N

Another swampazz summer like 2018 and we’ll all be putting the lotrimin in the butt crack. 

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3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Another swampazz summer like 2018 and we’ll all be putting the lotrimin in the butt crack. 

what if some of us do this already? 

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Yeah, looks like some warmer days ahead, nothing terrible, maybe a 90 in the usual hot spots.  Hoping we can get some evening storms to keep things semi interesting.

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Still pretty warm though verbatim. I can't tell if a front will be over our fannies, but the first week of July looks seasonable, if not warm. 

It can’t stay in the 70s all summer. 

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3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Wet moist and fungus all summer 

I thought you had hot and dry with dews?

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Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It can’t stay in the 70s all summer. 

I am selfish and want my bodies of water a bit warmer though. 

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18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I am selfish and want my bodies of water a bit warmer though. 

Contrary to DIT’s belief, so do I. Summer in the 80s and low 90s is enjoyable. Warm up the waters, get the girls in the pools....just keep the dumb dews at bay so we hot and dry. No one wants to run from the beach as the monsoon’s approach.

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5 minutes ago, sbos_wx said:

Doesn't look like I'm in line to be Logan spotter, moving to Ashmont Street on 9/1, @coastalwx old hood. 

Nice! 

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1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It can’t stay in the 70s all summer. 

This is about as good as it gets for summer COC.

Climatological Data for Concord Area, NH (ThreadEx) - July 1965
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
1965-07-01 77 41 59.0 -9.7 6 0 0.00 0.0 0
1965-07-02 83 41 62.0 -6.9 3 0 0.00 0.0 0
1965-07-03 70 53 61.5 -7.5 3 0 0.22 0.0 0
1965-07-04 82 50 66.0 -3.2 0 1 0.00 0.0 0
1965-07-05 84 50 67.0 -2.3 0 2 0.02 0.0 0
1965-07-06 72 45 58.5 -10.9 6 0 0.00 0.0 0
1965-07-07 77 35 56.0 -13.6 9 0 0.00 0.0 0
1965-07-08 84 56 70.0 0.3 0 5 0.19 0.0 0
1965-07-09 87 48 67.5 -2.3 0 3 0.00 0.0 0
1965-07-10 87 67 77.0 7.1 0 12 0.01 0.0 0
1965-07-11 80 51 65.5 -4.5 0 1 0.00 0.0 0
1965-07-12 82 48 65.0 -5.0 0 0 0.00 0.0 0
1965-07-13 87 48 67.5 -2.6 0 3 0.00 0.0 0
1965-07-14 96 65 80.5 10.3 0 16 0.15 0.0 0
1965-07-15 86 55 70.5 0.3 0 6 0.04 0.0 0
1965-07-16 84 47 65.5 -4.8 0 1 0.00 0.0 0
1965-07-17 83 51 67.0 -3.3 0 2 0.52 0.0 0
1965-07-18 73 63 68.0 -2.4 0 3 0.53 0.0 0
1965-07-19 77 53 65.0 -5.4 0 0 0.00 0.0 0
1965-07-20 72 41 56.5 -13.9 8 0 0.00 0.0 0
1965-07-21 78 41 59.5 -10.9 5 0 0.00 0.0 0
1965-07-22 81 46 63.5 -6.9 1 0 0.00 0.0 0
1965-07-23 75 62 68.5 -1.9 0 4 0.02 0.0 0
1965-07-24 87 62 74.5 4.1 0 10 0.00 0.0 0
1965-07-25 87 63 75.0 4.6 0 10 0.00 0.0 0
1965-07-26 84 53 68.5 -1.9 0 4 0.00 0.0 0
1965-07-27 81 50 65.5 -4.9 0 1 0.03 0.0 0
1965-07-28 78 45 61.5 -8.9 3 0 T 0.0 0
1965-07-29 80 48 64.0 -6.3 1 0 0.00 0.0 0
1965-07-30 80 42 61.0 -9.3 4 0 0.00 0.0 0
1965-07-31 80 48 64.0 -6.2 1 0 0.00 0.0 0
Sum 2514 1568 - - 50 84 1.73 0.0 -
Average 81.1 50.6 65.8 -4.2 - - - - 0.0
Normal 82.3 57.7 70.0 - 17 172 3.74 0.0 -
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