• Member Statistics

    15,534
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    GCWarrior
    Newest Member
    GCWarrior
    Joined
Dr. Dews

SNE "Tropical" Season Discussion 2019

Recommended Posts

This might be one of the bigger Euro vs. GFS ever :lol: 

Regardless of sfc depiction...the pattern configuration advertised on both is enough to keep eyes open 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

960 at the benchmark. Nice noreaster

download (9).png

Banding over the climatologically favored areas, of course

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It's not  a typical pattern... 

There's not very much climate -based precedence for getting a hurricane up this far N comparing the totality of the synoptic evolution of either this 00z, the 12z ...or their blended solution(s). 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

It's something I think about from time to time.

Like if something like a 1938 happened. I know on here we joke around about damage and all want to see that big weather event happen but if a 1938 happened today it could be quite bad. 

In a group text chat I'm in with some friends there are a few who live on Long Island and one of them was saying that some time ago (don't know when) there was this published report that stated if they ever had to evacuate Long Island due to a hurricane or whatever they couldn't do it...wouldn't be possible. 

I'm sure the word would definitely get out there but would it be portrayed correctly and would people actually listen? 

Hell...stores become hell when the forecast is for 5'' of snow...WTF would happen if the word is power outages for several days or weeks? 

I think some of you are in a fantasy land when it comes to this stuff.  I get the whole Drama/Dramatic idea, but in October 2011, Most of CT/lots of Interior SNE was without power for a Week to two weeks.  It sucked. It wasn't fun, but it was not a Catastrophe, or a disaster of Epic proportions like we see in the Bahamas.   There's not going to be a 38 redux with regard to Surprise like some seem to think.  Heck, it'd be tough to get a storm of that magnitude up this way ever period...let alone on a surprise.  Those days are long gone.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Assuming it wobbles N up the coast spanning three languid days as the ridge lobes over top like that - big if ... - that flatter correction of the Lakes trough takes New England out of the running anyway. 

Might be more of a swipe up Nick's way in this type of solution... but, this one ain't stickin' either. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

I think some of you are in a fantasy land when it comes to this stuff.  I get the whole Drama/Dramatic idea, but in October 2011, Most of CT/lots of Interior SNE was without power for a Week to two weeks.  It sucked. It wasn't fun, but it was not a Catastrophe, or a disaster of Epic proportions like we see in the Bahamas.   There's not going to be a 38 redux with regard to Surprise like some seem to think.  Heck, it'd be tough to get a storm of that magnitude up this way ever period...let alone on a surprise.  Those days are long gone.

So long as one is careful not to conflate "surprise" with "destruction" 

I mean it would only help to get folks under cover.  Otherwise, it wouldn't really matter whether there is element surprise...  A category 3 hurricane moving that fast, whether seen coming or not is sides the point; it is doing the same consequential shit where ever it decides to encounter land...  

Like all water access terminals and real-estate ventures spanning the last 70 years from Brownsville to Portland, most of these regions were expanded profligate with only passive concern if awareness at all to the relative rarity of a 1938 ...or a Galveston 1901 ... or a Labor Day bomb... Andrew... Maria ... etc etc... and well, these things are simply going to happen again.   The present infrastructure of the upper MA and S. SNE regions is an order of magnitude more valuable/expanded in terms of economic equivalency ... such that proportion to era would make a 1938 redux the superior loss in these modern times.  

So yes and no...  these other relativity make that no sense of ease or comfort even if one gets to know it's coming ...  

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said:

Anyone remember these shirts? Thought I lost it in a move...

0912191528a.jpg

I remember it and survived too, After 7 days with no power and 2' of water in the basement for a grand total of $3,000 worth of damage.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
19 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Make sure to get your bread and milk early folks!

Maybe you aren't taking this seriously because you missed the latest forecast...

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2019091212_204_35_149.thumb.jpg.684d01fd31499eec1350b300d88fc5cc.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, JC-CT said:

Maybe you aren't taking this seriously because you missed the latest forecast...

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2019091212_204_35_149.thumb.jpg.684d01fd31499eec1350b300d88fc5cc.jpg

Looks like a BOB track here, I'm stopping at Hannaford after work.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I remember it and survived too, After 7 days with no power and 2' of water in the basement for a grand total of $3,000 worth of damage.

Glad you made it through largely unscathed

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Maybe you aren't taking this seriously because you missed the latest forecast...

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2019091212_204_35_149.thumb.jpg.684d01fd31499eec1350b300d88fc5cc.jpg

You forgot to slap a NOAA logo on that.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, dendrite said:

You forgot to slap a NOAA logo on that.

For a mere commoner like myself, that would actually be a felony.

  • Haha 6

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
49 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I remember it and survived too, After 7 days with no power and 2' of water in the basement for a grand total of $3,000 worth of damage.

No floods at my place in Gardiner, but greatest calendar-day rain event I've measured - 6.41".  Also the only TC I can recall that had backside winds as powerful as the frontside, though 90% of RA came before the wind shift.  A popple stand on our Hebron lot atop Greenwood Hill was 2/3 flattened, 1/3 of trees pointed NW and 1/3 pointed SE (and 1/3 still upright, surprisingly.)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
28 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

Meh. Some of these tracks appear to be from a different disturbance, too. 

AL95_2019091212_ECENS_large.png

Most are 95L. If not all saw the loop

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

I think some of you are in a fantasy land when it comes to this stuff.  I get the whole Drama/Dramatic idea, but in October 2011, Most of CT/lots of Interior SNE was without power for a Week to two weeks.  It sucked. It wasn't fun, but it was not a Catastrophe, or a disaster of Epic proportions like we see in the Bahamas.   There's not going to be a 38 redux with regard to Surprise like some seem to think.  Heck, it'd be tough to get a storm of that magnitude up this way ever period...let alone on a surprise.  Those days are long gone.

Thing is the area where the power was out the longest was not that big though......Hartford west into the Farmington Valley - West Hartford, Farmington, Avon, Simsbury took it hard but it wasn't all that difficult to find the supplies you needed by driving 20 minutes south.....I filled up our gas tanks for the genny when I would go to work in Cheshire, for example, for those 10 days when the gas stations at home were either without power or out of gas......if the whole state was impacted like that IDK man.....it would be worse.....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.