• Member Statistics

    15,622
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    havaeat_tr
    Newest Member
    havaeat_tr
    Joined
SENC

General Severe Weather

Recommended Posts

40 minutes ago, jburns said:

Best storm of the season just blew through. I was out to eat with my wife and we ended up enjoying a romantic dinner by iPhone light.

That's how I ended my work down in Raleigh yesterday (...not romantic but dark). It really wasn't a big storm but it knocked out the power around 4pm near the US1/US401 split. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Best/worst storm of the summer hit Statesville too.  About 10K without power in Iredell.  Lots of trees and power lines down.

We did good here, no damage just under a half inch of well needed rain.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
26 minutes ago, Solak said:

One more round of possible severe before the cooldown.

day1otlk_20190823_1300_prt.gif

 

12z 3k nam kills the squall line and shows very few storms. Not sure what's going on with this run.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, shaggy said:

12z 3k nam kills the squall line and shows very few storms. Not sure what's going on with this run.

I haven't been enthused with this setup nearly as much as I was yesterday's. I thought the forecast yesterday way underdid the effect of heating and the MCAPE values were high. Same today but the forcing associated with the front arrives late and very rarely this time of year do nighttime storms reach severe limits, unless you get an MLS situation which this is not. Though dynamics appear most favorable in SE VA and NE NC and this lines up with high CAPE values in prime heating hours and highest shear values in this area as well, I expect a line of storms to progress from NW-SE through midnight. Isolated wind damage for sure but I doubt we see much outside the highlighted areas. That might be what the 3K nam is seeing in its latest run, the line falls apart once peak heating hours wane (though did you see the 6z? That had a significant line. I took that with a grain of salt given other modelling). Should be some good rains. We got an inch yesterday from the storms that developed after that awesome gravity wave cloud (I think that's what it was) moved through.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I haven't been enthused with this setup nearly as much as I was yesterday's. I thought the forecast yesterday way underdid the effect of heating and the MCAPE values were high. Same today but the forcing associated with the front arrives late and very rarely this time of year do nighttime storms reach severe limits, unless you get an MLS situation which this is not. Though dynamics appear most favorable in SE VA and NE NC and this lines up with high CAPE values in prime heating hours and highest shear values in this area as well, I expect a line of storms to progress from NW-SE through midnight. Isolated wind damage for sure but I doubt we see much outside the highlighted areas. That might be what the 3K nam is seeing in its latest run, the line falls apart once peak heating hours wane (though did you see the 6z? That had a significant line. I took that with a grain of salt given other modelling). Should be some good rains. We got an inch yesterday from the storms that developed after that awesome gravity wave cloud (I think that's what it was) moved through.

Hrrr is still showing some storms east of 95 especially so we will see. Here in greenvile it's just absurd outside as far as humidity goes. Definitely getting plenty of sun and heating.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
40 minutes ago, shaggy said:

Hrrr is still showing some storms east of 95 especially so we will see. Here in greenvile it's just absurd outside as far as humidity goes. Definitely getting plenty of sun and heating.

Yeah temp is 88 DP is 77 heat index is 100 lol......I love NC but man I hate June-Aug outside of thunderstorms.....which I havent had a good one IMBY in ages......I suspect today will follow that pattern again but maybe I will get lucky. 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
19 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

Yeah temp is 88 DP is 77 heat index is 100 lol......I love NC but man I hate June-Aug outside of thunderstorms.....which I havent had a good one IMBY in ages......I suspect today will follow that pattern again but maybe I will get lucky. 

 

I hear ya! I had been in the same boat for awhile until yesterday saw one storm blow up right over my house and sit, dropping an inch of much, much needed rain, 30-35 mph gusts, and close ctg lightning.  Had a good storm a week ago but not as much rain. Can't wait for the, gasp, 70's tomorrow! Hope to see a blossoming radar shortly and maybe a cool, light, drizzly rain type of day tomorrow

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

day2otlk_0600.gif.f3dd88d023c08a370dc79f477c42ee1b.gif

 

 ...Parts of southern into middle Atlantic Seaboard...
   Scattered thunderstorm activity may be ongoing at 12Z Tuesday, ahead
   of the cold front, in the presence of at least modestly sheared and
   strong southwesterly deep-layer mean flow, from the lee of the
   southern Appalachians through northern Florida. 

   Coupled with the development of the frontal wave/cyclone, models
   indicate an influx of seasonably moist air (including surface dew
   points near 70F) across the Carolina coastal plain into the piedmont
   by early afternoon.  Although lower/mid tropospheric lapse rates may
   not be particularly steep, it appears that this still may contribute
   to mixed-layer CAPE of 500-1000 J/kg.  In the presence of south to
   southwesterly wind fields including 30-40+ kt around 850 mb, and
   50-60+ kt in the 700-500 mb layer, it appears that the environment
   could become conducive to organized severe thunderstorm development.

   Mid/upper support for large-scale ascent across the Carolinas could
   be glancing, but lift associated with lower/mid tropospheric warm
   advection may be conducive to the initiation of discrete
   thunderstorms by midday, including a few supercell structures, with
   potential for at least some upscale growth across the North Carolina
   coastal plain through Tuesday afternoon.  This may be accompanied by
   the risk for a couple of tornadoes, in additional to potentially
   damaging wind gusts.

   ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
   Tornado:   5%     - Slight
   Wind:     15%     - Slight
   Hail:      5%     - Marginal

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
32 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

day2otlk_0600.gif.f3dd88d023c08a370dc79f477c42ee1b.gif

 

 ...Parts of southern into middle Atlantic Seaboard...
   Scattered thunderstorm activity may be ongoing at 12Z Tuesday, ahead
   of the cold front, in the presence of at least modestly sheared and
   strong southwesterly deep-layer mean flow, from the lee of the
   southern Appalachians through northern Florida. 

   Coupled with the development of the frontal wave/cyclone, models
   indicate an influx of seasonably moist air (including surface dew
   points near 70F) across the Carolina coastal plain into the piedmont
   by early afternoon.  Although lower/mid tropospheric lapse rates may
   not be particularly steep, it appears that this still may contribute
   to mixed-layer CAPE of 500-1000 J/kg.  In the presence of south to
   southwesterly wind fields including 30-40+ kt around 850 mb, and
   50-60+ kt in the 700-500 mb layer, it appears that the environment
   could become conducive to organized severe thunderstorm development.

   Mid/upper support for large-scale ascent across the Carolinas could
   be glancing, but lift associated with lower/mid tropospheric warm
   advection may be conducive to the initiation of discrete
   thunderstorms by midday, including a few supercell structures, with
   potential for at least some upscale growth across the North Carolina
   coastal plain through Tuesday afternoon.  This may be accompanied by
   the risk for a couple of tornadoes, in additional to potentially
   damaging wind gusts.

   ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
   Tornado:   5%     - Slight
   Wind:     15%     - Slight
   Hail:      5%     - Marginal

Saw this exact scenario on the 3k Nam for tomorrow, discrete cells then an organized line. First potential severe threat in a while. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If the weak surface low forms might see a area bumped to EHN with 10% on tornadoes in central/eastern NC 

 

From SPC

 

 However, instability will remain rather weak
   from southeast VA northward where heating will not be as strong and
   midlevel lapse rates will remain poor. Where stronger heating is
   forecast across parts of central/southern NC southward into northern
   FL, MLCAPE values may reach as high as 1500-2000 J/kg in a narrow
   corridor ahead of the front. Some forecast guidance suggests a weak
   secondary surface low may develop in the VA/NC Piedmont vicinity
   during the late morning. If this occurs, backed low level winds will
   develop ahead of the cold front across parts of mainly
   central/eastern NC into southeast VA. As a result, this could
   locally increase tornado potential across this area. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
 ...North Carolina/southeast Virginia this afternoon/evening...
   The potential exists for a few thunderstorms capable of locally
   damaging winds, and possibly a tornado, across the region this
   afternoon into early evening, although the overall magnitude/extent
   of today's severe risk should remain limited.

   Associated with the base of a prominent east-central CONUS longwave
   trough, a vorticity maxima and the entrance region of a strong
   cyclonically curved polar jet will quickly transition
   east-northeastward from the Tennessee Valley and Lower Ohio Valley
   to the Appalachians by tonight. Modest cyclogenesis will occur in
   the lee of the southern/central Appalachians as a cold front
   continues to spread east of the mountains, and generally exits the
   coast by early/mid-evening. A warm/moist sector with 70F dew points
   will precede the cold front, with a north-northeastward expansion
   across coastal portions of South Carolina/North Carolina today. 

   Even with this moist influx off the Atlantic, the relatively
   small-inland warm sector remains mired by broken multi-layer cloud
   cover at midday. Its potential persistence will temper lapse rates
   and limited upward parcel accelerations even with near 70F surface
   dewpoints, which casts uncertainty on how many mature/sustained
   surface-based storms will develop and intensify within the warm
   sector. That said, strengthening/gradually backing mid-level winds
   and resultant 45-55 kt effective shear will be conditionally
   supportive of fast-moving line segments capable of damaging winds,
   with some supercell/non-zero tornado potential particularly across
   eastern North Carolina in proximity to the warm front, should
   adequate destabilization and storm development/maturation occur.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
* Tornado Warning for...
  Wayne County in central North Carolina...
  North central Sampson County in central North Carolina...
  Southeastern Johnston County in central North Carolina...

* Until 645 PM EDT

* At 540 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
  was located 12 miles southeast of Benson, or 13 miles south of
  Smithfield, moving east at 35 mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Talk about a quick hit...

.CONFIRMED TORNADO NEAR VANCEBORO IN CRAVEN COUNTY, NORTH CAROLINA...

START LOCATION...3 MILES NORTHEAST OF VANCEBORO IN CRAVEN COUNTY NORTH CAROLINA
END LOCATION...3 MILES NORTHEAST OF VANCEBORO IN CRAVEN COUNTY NORTH CAROLINA
DATE...OCTOBER 22ND 2019
ESTIMATED TIME...743 PM EDT
MAXIMUM EF-SCALE RATING...EF0
ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WIND SPEED...65 MPH
MAXIMUM PATH WIDTH...40 YARDS
PATH LENGTH...0.05 MILES
BEGINNING LAT/LON...35.350833/-77.125814
ENDING LAT/LON...35.350968/-77.125140
* FATALITIES...0
* INJURIES...0
  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

day2otlk_20191026_1730_prt.gif

Further south, stronger heating is expected across southeast VA into
   eastern NC/SC. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible in
   warm advection ahead of the cold front but, dewpoints in the upper
   60s to low 70s and pockets of heating should result in MLCAPE values
   as high as 1000-1500 J/kg by early afternoon. Strong to severe
   storms are expected to develop near the front and track
   east/northeast, moving offshore by 00z. Forecast soundings indicate
   steeper mid and low level lapse rates with shear profiles supportive
   of marginal supercells. Forcing will be weaker than further north,
   so anticipate mainly clusters and semi-discrete cells initially.
   Some upscale growth into bowing segments could occur through outflow
   interactions/storm mergers. Overall severe threat appears greater
   across this area as deeper, more discrete convection develops,
   posing a threat for locally damaging winds and possibly a couple of
   tornadoes.

   ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
   Tornado:   5%     - Slight
   Wind:     15%     - Slight
   Hail:      5%     - Marginal

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Please Stay weather Aware Thursday. This strong front & the ingredients are coming together for severe storms in the late evening hours #Halloween. The STP or significant tornado parameter is enhanced right around Charlotte as it appears a small meso low forms on the front. Timing is everything so stay up on the weather the next 48 hrs. #cltwx #ncwx #scwx

No photo description available.
No photo description available.
No photo description available.
 
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 hours ago, Solak said:

Please Stay weather Aware Thursday. This strong front & the ingredients are coming together for severe storms in the late evening hours #Halloween. The STP or significant tornado parameter is enhanced right around Charlotte as it appears a small meso low forms on the front. Timing is everything so stay up on the weather the next 48 hrs. #cltwx #ncwx #scwx

No photo description available.
 
 

Unfortunately, somebody is going to get the strong storms during the prime trick or treating time. Being selfish for the RDU area, it looks like we may be good with the main band coming in closer to mid-night (per current models and what B.Panovich stated above). WRAL also seems to think this will be the scenario, but RAH is much more vague and even has "Likely" precip starting at ~6pm for my grid location.   

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I've said it before, I'll say it again: Rarely do nighttime (Especially 9PM-12AM) events live up to hype. I think Triad through western VA will have a nasty/severe squall line but RARELY do these things hold together from a severe perspective east of that much after sundown. I expect no different today, despite the enhanced risk area. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I've said it before, I'll say it again: Rarely do nighttime (Especially 9PM-12AM) events live up to hype. I think Triad through western VA will have a nasty/severe squall line but RARELY do these things hold together from a severe perspective east of that much after sundown. I expect no different today, despite the enhanced risk area. 

I think a lot also depends on how much the instability is available. I have seen many breaks in the clouds in the CLT metro. If I recall, it was supposed to be cloudy all day. But yes, it's more difficult to get severe weather after sunset, but it's not unheard of. Especially with all the other ingredients that are coming together. It'll be interesting to see what the SPC does for their next update.  The HRRR model that Brad posted shows some impressive rotation in these storms. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

We just had about 10 minutes of sun here in the Triad too.  Got real uncomfortable and Julyish real quick.  Hoping we dont end up with more of that this afternoon.  Does anyone have the forecasted Capes across NC for trick or treating hours?  I need a mobile friendly link if available.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

No sun in the Triangle area yet, but extremely gusty south winds. Warm, imagine if we see some breaks we could shoot into the 80's fairly rapidly. Some concerning severe parameters especially west and north of my location. Will be interesting to see if some of the sunshine others are noting lead to increased instability and maximize the storm potential during peak heating hours. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The sun has been peaking out for a solid 4 hours. I’m currently sitting at 83 and the heat index is 87. Never thought I’d be saying that on Halloween. Definitely not good as these storms look to occur during peak heating. I have a sinking feeling that things are going to get pretty nasty. Definitely a spooky situation.


.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Looks like with the speed of this thing, the upstate wil be clear in time for trick or treating, but many neighborhoods and places have already moved it until tomorow evening regardless. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.