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March 1, 2019 Light Snow Chance

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5 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

12K really rakes part of the area. Even tries to get 6+ into Frederick/Moco/Carroll. Most end up 2-4. It's only going to snow for 4-5 hours, so it had better be real hot and heavy.

is it possible the map is showing sleet? i didn't know there was even enough qpf to produce 6+ amounts

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Both NAMs , I like !!

The winter of dissapointment still likes to deliver to the DC area.   

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Just now, mappy said:

is it possible the map is showing sleet? i didn't know there was even enough qpf to produce 6+ amounts

It doesn't look like it. 3K has 5 inches right through Central MD and shows a wicked band coming through.

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Just now, osfan24 said:

It doesn't look like it. 3K has 5 inches right through Central MD and shows a wicked band coming through.

hmm wonder if Euro/GFS will show similar today. 

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NAM certainly has held steady no doubt...seems to have ticked a bit colder as well during the event....wonder if that's a function of the heavier precip it's advertising?

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The positive snow depth map only showing 1” might be a red flag but hey if you had to make a forecast based off the NAMs you would certainly have to go 1-3” for most areas. 

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can we stop saying things like the NAM3 has 5" and crap that like?    The TT 10:1 map has 5".    The model does not.    If you want to know what the actual model is doing, look at the snow depth change or Ferrier maps.     They're much lower, indicating significant riming of the snow, consistent with the forecast soundings which show a possible warm layer around 800.    It's marginal with that warm nose, so those depth and Ferrier maps may end up too light, but the model does not have 5".     

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Just now, mdhokie said:

Look at Ferrier and snow depth on 3k, its like 1-2". I think much of what is showing is sleet.

Soundings are subfreezing throughout the column.

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11 minutes ago, high risk said:

can we stop saying things like the NAM3 has 5" and crap that like?    The TT 10:1 map has 5".    The model does not.    If you want to know what the actual model is doing, look at the snow depth change or Ferrier maps.     They're much lower, indicating significant riming of the snow, consistent with the forecast soundings which show a possible warm layer around 800.    It's marginal with that warm nose, so those depth and Ferrier maps may end up too light, but the model does not have 5".     

what?! snowmaps dont lie!

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1 hour ago, high risk said:

nice event for the northern tier

Screen Shot 2019-02-27 at 9.26.03 AM.png

So what does it make me when its a good event for the "northern tier" but the max is still south of me?  lol

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

So what does it make me when its a good event for the "northern tier" but the max is still south of me?  lol

       LOL.   It was too much and too confusing for me to write  "for the southern half of the northern tier."    

  

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2 minutes ago, high risk said:

       LOL.   It was too much and too confusing for me to write  "for the southern half of the northern tier."    

  

It's like Peter Schickele with "PDQ Bach" talking about the University of Southern North Dakota.

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8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

So what does it make me when its a good event for the "northern tier" but the max is still south of me?  lol

I'm currently seeing someone who lives in Westminster...needless to say she will be staying at my place for this event 

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21 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

So what does it make me when its a good event for the "northern tier" but the max is still south of me?  lol

You will not like the GFS, I sure don't.  I am going with the NAMs  I hope they have a better handle than the goofy GFS   

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