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snowman19

March, 2019

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23 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

With Officially 4.0 inches of snow in Central Park today NYC is now at 15.5 inches for the season which ties this season for 116th place out of the last 150 years of record keeping, tied with the winter of 1970/71.  

That winter was much colder than this winter, although not exceptionally so. What did fall stuck around a lot longer, January at 26.9° was the cold month that winter and with 11.4 inches of snow by far the snowiest. December at 34.4° and February at 35.1° were both near average for that period. March averaged 40.1° which is historically average, but a few degrees below what our new averages (1981-2010) are for March.

NYC now needs only 22.7 inches of snow in the next 22 months for the new 30 year average, which will be calculated in January 2021, to reach 30 inches per year. The current average snowfall for the period January 1991-March 2019 is now 30.5 inches. The 150 year average in NYC is 28.8 inches.

March now has 5.4 inches of snow for the first two days of the month, and only needs 1.1 inches by the end of the month to become the snowiest month of the winter season for the fourth time in the last five years.

This winter season now becomes only the second season in history that November and March will be the two snowiest months. The only other time this happened was the Winter of 1989-90.

I can already hear the whining about how far below avg we are in 2030 when we've warmed to the point that a storm like the one this morning is the biggest storm of the year and it only happens once every 2 or 3 years.

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Earlier today, a snowstorm brought a swath of 3"-6" snowfall across the New York City region. Central Park picked up only its second 4" or greater snowfall this winter. Another storm has the potential to bring a similar or even larger accumulation of snow Sunday night into Monday. Afterward, an unseasonably cold air mass could push into the Northeast. The 12z ECMWF suggests that the cold shot has the potential to challenge records.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.20°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.70°C for the week centered around February 20. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.53°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.48°C.

Similar ENSO conditions will likely persist through much of March with some possible fluctuations to just below weak El Niño levels. Some guidance suggests the potential for further warming of ENSO Region 3.4 in coming weeks.

The SOI was -3.30 today. It has been negative for 24 out of the last 25 days.

Today's preliminary value of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.146. The AO has now been positive for 22 consecutive days.

On March 1, the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 2.370 (RMM). The amplitude was somewhat higher than the February 28-adjusted figure of 2.118. The MJO will continue to advance toward Phase 3.

Based on historic data following similar ENSO conditions to those of February 2019, March 1-15 could provide perhaps the final window of opportunity for a moderate or perhaps significant snowstorm in the New York City area. That the MJO will likely enter March at a high amplitude is consistent with a colder start to the month. Due to shorter wave lengths, the state of the AO has little impact on the probability of such storms.

Already, today saw a moderate snowstorm (generally 3"-6") impact the region. A somewhat larger storm is likely Sunday night into Monday. The potential exists for a widespread 4"-8" across much of the region. Both the 12z and 18z ECMWF are even more aggressive with snowfall amounts. The GFS is a low outlier, possibly due to its recurrent issues with the thermal profile.

Afterward, sustained warming could limit opportunities for snowfall. The potential for widespread high temperatures in the upper 40s into southern New England and 50s in portions of the Middle Atlantic region near mid-month exists. The odds of such warming would be particularly high should the PDO be negative, as has been the case in both December and January.

 

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14 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

ah the famous December storms I was thinking of were Dec 03, 09, 10.  In NYC and where we live nothing in March matched any of those.

also no 20" storms in March at all since 1888 and we had a few in December including the all-time record holder in 1947 and the great Boxing Day Blizzard

It seems like March is more of an inland month for snow which is weird since sea surface temps should be colder than they are in December- but then how come we haven't seen any 20" events in well over a century like we have in December?

 

I'll take a stab at it.

Probably because when March rolls around there is a lot more warmer temps starting to enter the Southern US. In order to get an 18" snowstorm any time of the year you need a really strong, amped up/phasing situation. Or a really slow/almost stalling system so you get the proper QPF. In March, if you have that, right on the coastal plain is going to get warmer temps than Dec, Jan, and Feb more likely than not.

The majority of coastals in March come with marginal temps compared to the temps in met winter months and that just doesn't accumulate very good in the City especially with a stronger sun angle. Plus these coastals need to drop at minimum 2.0" of LE. Hard to get in March, on the coastal plain perfectly timed up with a strong arctic high.

The one thing that 1888 had that you don't get in March a lot these days is a nice strong, perfectly placed arctic high. That storm had that and brought it down to the coast. Temps were frigid on East Coast. Record lows and low-max's that day and the day after. That's basically what it takes to get a 20"+ storm in NYC in March.

Anywhere else in the Northeast, except for SE Mass/the Cape, has a much higher chance of achieving this in March, especially inland areas with higher elevation. Heck, it can happen in April in the NE, see April Fool's Day blizzard of 1997. Worcester had over 30" I think. Also, I think it was March 1958 or 1960 in Norfolk, Connecticut that they got something like 60" of snow for the month alone. It might have even been higher than that.

Point is, you need a VERY cold airmass to interact with a VERY wet system and NYC just doesn't have that great of a location for it.

 

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Lol I guess I should have read the posts following that question. I keep the tabs open and these advertisement banners block the thing that says there are new posts.

But yeah, you pretty much got your answer.

It doesn't surprise me that LI had a 20" last March. They have the advantage of getting into the juicy QPF with intense rates and not being so urban.

Sometimes it's good to be sticking out into the ocean ;)

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Next 8 days averaging 33degs., or 6degs. BN.

36.8* here at 6am. with a hazy looking summery sky.

38.1* here by 8am.,   40.0* by 9am.,  42.0* by 10am.

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NYC is on track for the first 4 days in a row with 1” or more of snow. The previous record was 3 consecutive days set in February 2014 and other years. All the more impressive to do it in March. 

Number of Consecutive Days Snowfall >= 1 
for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY

1 3 2014-02-13 through 2014-02-15
- 3 2011-01-25 through 2011-01-27
- 3 1923-02-10 through 1923-02-12
- 3 1920-02-04 through 1920-02-06
- 3 1888-03-12 through 1888-03-14
- 3 1873-12-26 through 1873-12-28
7 2 2019-03-01 through 2019-03-02
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Even before the snow later, NYC is already the snowiest season on record for a DJF with under 5” of snow.

DJF under 5” snow in NYC and seasonal snowfall total

0.5....1997-1998....5.5

1.1....1918-1919....3.8

2.6.....1972-1973...2.8

2.7......1931-1932..5.3

3.2......1991-1992..12.6

3.5......2001-2002...3.5

3.7......2018-2019...15.5

4.5......2011-2012....7.4

 

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2 hours ago, bluewave said:

NYC is on track for the first 4 days in a row with 1” or more of snow. The previous record was 3 consecutive days set in February 2014 and other years. All the more impressive to do it in March. 

Number of Consecutive Days Snowfall >= 1 
for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY

1 3 2014-02-13 through 2014-02-15
- 3 2011-01-25 through 2011-01-27
- 3 1923-02-10 through 1923-02-12
- 3 1920-02-04 through 1920-02-06
- 3 1888-03-12 through 1888-03-14
- 3 1873-12-26 through 1873-12-28
7 2 2019-03-01 through 2019-03-02

we could have five consecutive days with measurable snow in Central Park if this storm pans out...not sure if that's a record...possibly three straight 4" or more if things get crazy...Feb. 4-6th 1920 had three straight days with 5" or more...

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the winter averaged 36.2 in NYC...same as last met winter...lets see if March 2019 can beat March 2018 in snowfall...Central Park had almost half the amounts Staten Island got last March...

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11 minutes ago, uncle W said:

we could have five consecutive days with measurable snow in Central Park if this storm pans out...not sure if that's a record...possibly three straight 4" or more if things get crazy...Feb. 4-6th 1920 had three straight days with 5" or more...

Yeah, 5 consecutive days of measurable snowfall looks like the record.

Number of Consecutive Days Snowfall >= .01 
for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY

1 5 1938-01-10 through 1938-01-14
- 5 1923-02-10 through 1923-02-14
3 4 2007-01-28 through 2007-01-31
- 4 1986-01-27 through 1986-01-30
- 4 1956-03-16 through 1956-03-19
- 4 1954-01-09 through 1954-01-12
- 4 1942-12-15 through 1942-12-18
- 4 1938-11-24 through 1938-11-27
- 4 1924-02-17 through 1924-02-20
- 4 1920-02-04 through 1920-02-07
- 4 1918-01-25 through 1918-01-28
- 4 1917-03-02 through 1917-03-05
- 4 1915-01-31 through 1915-02-03
- 4 1915-01-20 through 1915-01-23
15 3 2019-02-28 through 2019-03-02

 

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The warmer pattern that was progged to occur might be delayed.

MJO is going into 3 and then into the COD on the Euro and GFS

PNA will be also rising to positive.

We  might have 1 more snow threat left in this pattern

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Just now, bluewave said:

Yeah, 5 consecutive of measurable days looks like the record.

Number of Consecutive Days Snowfall >= .01 
for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY

1 5 1938-01-10 through 1938-01-14
- 5 1923-02-10 through 1923-02-14
3 4 2007-01-28 through 2007-01-31
- 4 1986-01-27 through 1986-01-30
- 4 1956-03-16 through 1956-03-19
- 4 1954-01-09 through 1954-01-12
- 4 1942-12-15 through 1942-12-18
- 4 1938-11-24 through 1938-11-27
- 4 1924-02-17 through 1924-02-20
- 4 1920-02-04 through 1920-02-07
- 4 1918-01-25 through 1918-01-28
- 4 1917-03-02 through 1917-03-05
- 4 1915-01-31 through 1915-02-03
- 4 1915-01-20 through 1915-01-23
15 3 2019-02-28 through 2019-03-02

 

you are amazing...where do you find these records?...

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This was the rankings snowfall wise of the big cities on the Northeast corridor as of February 20th. I noted at the time they were completely reversed of how they should be.

1. Washington DC..16.6
2. Baltimore............15.6
3. Philadelphia.........13.1
4. New York............10.0
5. Boston.................9.2

This is the rankings going into today. By tomorrow this should be more in line of what they should be. Rarely will you ever see all five cities this uniform this late in the season.

1. Baltimore............17.8
2. Washington DC..16.9
3. Philadelphia.........16.1
4. Boston...............15.9
5. New York............15.5

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1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

The warmer pattern that was progged to occur might be delayed.

MJO is going into 3 and then into the COD on the Euro and GFS

PNA will be also rising to positive.

We  might have 1 more snow threat left in this pattern

Friday night/Saturday is the last shot at snow if it even happens, very sketchy right now and it appears to be real minor. The pattern starts flipping Saturday 

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Just now, snowman19 said:

Friday night/Saturday is the last shot at snow if it even happens, very sketchy right now and it appears to be real minor. The pattern starts flipping Saturday 

Mid March more likely

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March 6" snowfalls
21.0" 3/12-14/1888
18.1" 3/7-8/1941
14.5" 3/3-4/1960
14.5" 3/1-2/1914
12.0" 3/15-16/1896
11.8" 3/20-21/1958
11.6" 3/18-19/1956
10.6" 3/13-14/1993

10.0" 3/2/1896
..9.8" 3/21-22/1967

..9.4" 2/28-3/1 1949

..8.6" 3/5/1981

..8.4" 3/22/2018

..8.3" 3/1-2/2009

..8.0" 3/18-19/1892

..7.7" 3/6-7 1915

..7.7" 2/28-3/1 2005

..7.6" 3/6-7/1916

..7.6" 3/14/2017

..7.5" 3/5/2015

..7.3" 3/6-7/1923

..6.9" 3/8-9/1984

..6.7" 3/4-5/1917

..6.7" 3/16-17/1956

..6.6" 2/29-3/1/ 1968

..6.5" 3/5/1902

..6.2" 3/19/1992

..6.0" 3/6-7/1870

..6.0" 3/19/1890

..6.0" 3/10/1907

..6.0" 3/15/1906

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Just go into xmacis2 and explore all the different categories of data. Open up the single station menu at the top first.

https://xmacis.rcc-acis.org/

I like weatherspark.com a lot. They give a complete history of all airport obs internationally, as well as exceptional climate data. 

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March 2019 will be the third in four years with a good snowstorm in March...let alone two...

March wintry periods...

…………………………………………………….

1956

dates...max min precip snow depth

16.........33...21...0.90"...6.2"...6"

17.........33...20...0.05"...0.5"...3"

18.........30...21...0.38"...3.8"...7"

19.........26...23...0.78"...7.8".13"

20.........38...23......0........0...13"

21.........48...28......0........0.....8"

22.........50...31......0........0.....6"

23.........48...36......0........0.....1"

24.........43...24...0.11"...1.2"...1"

25.........34...18......0........0.....1"

1958...............................................

13.........46...34......T........T.....0

14.........36...33...0.48"...4.1"...4"

15.........41...35......T........T.....2"

16.........43...35......0........0.....1"

17.........45...34......0........0.....T

18.........42...35......T........T......0

19.........39...34...0.02".....T.....0

20.........35...33...0.90"...4.7"...5"

21.........35...31...0.71"...7.1"..11"

22.........45...34......T........T...10"

1960..................................................

01.........32...21......0........0.....0

02.........36...19......0........0.....0

03.........27...18...0.89" 12.5". 12"

04.........29...19...0.19"...2.0", 15"

05.........33...21...0.01"...0.1". 14"

06.........36...20......0........0....12"

07.........31...17......T......0.2"...8"

08.........30...19...0.01"...0.1"...5"

09.........34...17......0........0.....3"

10.........30...17......0........0.....2"

…………………………………………………...

1964

13...…...49...32.....0...…..0.....T

14...…...50...37.....T...…..0.....0

15...…...57...40...0.03".....0.....0

16...…...51...39.....0...…..0.....0

17...…...54...40.....T...…..0.....0

18...…...41...25.....T...…..T.....0

19......…45...24.....0...…..0.....0

20...…...52...30.....0...…..0.....0

21...…...42...33...0.15"...1.3"..1

22...…...50...32...0.41"...3.6"..T

1967...........................................................

15.........45...29...0.39"...1.8"...2"

16.........32...21...0.14"...0.8"...2"

17.........26...13...0.28"...3.0"...3"

18.........20...10......0........0.....3"

19.........28.....8......0........0.....2"

20.........40...23......0........0.....1"

21.........35...31...0.14"...0.8"...1"

22.........32...29...0.78"...9.0"...9"

23.........35...28......T........T.....6"

24.........44...30......0........0.....3"

1978..........................................................................

01.........32...25......0........0.....3"

02.........32...19......0........0.....3"

03.........29...24...0.64"...5.0"...8"

04.........30...19......0........0.....6"

05.........28...14......0........0.....4"

06.........33...18......0........0.....3"

07.........37...20......0........0.....3"

08.........30...22......T........T.....3"

09.........43...29......T........T.....3"

10.........43...36......0........0.....2"

1984.............................................................................

04.........40...24......0........0.....0

05.........43...33...0.71"...0.3"...0

06.........44...37......0........0.....0

07.........40...24......0........0.....0

08.........30...18...0.10"...1.8"...2"

09.........32...16...0.29"...5.1"...7"

10.........30...13......0........0.....5"

11.........40...19......T........T.....3"

12.........30...16......0........0.....1"

13.........35...24...2.31"...1.4"...1"

1992.........................................................................

14.........40...24......0........0.....0

15.........35...22......0........0.....0

16.........37...17......0........0.....0

17.........50...29......T........T.....0

18.........45...31...0.09".....T.....0

19.........33...31...0.93"...6.2"...3"

20.........45...30......0........0.....6"

21.........39...28......0........0.....T

22.........35...25...0.44"...3.2"...T

23.........38...29......T........T.....3"

1993...............................................................................

10.........40...32...0.60"...0.3"...0

11.........41...30......0........0.....0

12.........42...29......0........0.....0

13.........40...28...2.37" 10.2". 2"

14.........39...17...0.15"...0.4"...8"

15.........33...14......0........0.....7"

16.........45...26......0........0.....4"

17.........47...25...0.75"...0.8"...2"

18.........29...13......T........T.....2"

19.........33...16......0........0.....2"

1996...........................................................................

01.........34...22......0........0.....0

02.........35...29...0.33"...4.6"...4"

03.........35...21...0.01".....T......2"

04.........35...19......0........0.....1"

05.........61...32...0.22".....0.....0

06.........50...34...0.51".....0.....0

07.........34...23...0.81".....T.....0

08.........24...14...0.28"...4.5"...4"

09.........24...11......0........0.....3"

10.........33...16......0........0.....2"

2005...................................................

01.........42...30...0.29"...2.9"...9"

02.........39...28......T........T.....6"

03.........33...23......0........0.....5"

04.........36...23......0........0.....4"

05.........42...27......0........0.....4"

06.........48...31......0........0.....3"

07.........63...43......0........0.....2"

08.........57...18...0.32"...1.5"...1"

09.........31...16......0........0.....1"

10.........34...21......0........0.....T

..........................................................................

2015..............................................

01.........31...24...0.52"...4.8"...15"

02.........39...27......0........0......14"

03.........37...22...0.67"...1.8"...13"

04.........45...35...0.25".....0.....13"

05.........40...19...0.76"...7.5"...19"

06.........27...12......0........0.....19"

07.........38...18......0........0.....18"

08.........49...37......0........0.....16"

09.........54...40...0.01".....0.....13"

10.........53...39...0.46".....0.....11"

...................................................................

2017

10.........47...23...0.31"...2.1".....2"

11.........29...17......0........0........1"

12.........29...19......0........0........T

13.........36...20......T........T........T

14.........32...21...1.97"...7.6".....7"

15.........26...20......0........0........6"

16.........39...24......0........0........5"

17.........47...29......0........0........4"

18.........39...34...0.08".....T........3"

19.........47...34......0........0........3"

…………………………………………….

2018

13...…..40...33...0.28".....T...….0

14...…..41...31...0.01".....T...….0

15...…..48...32.....0...…...0...….0

16...…..40...30.....0...…...0...….0

17...…..48...27.....0...…...0...….0

18...…..43...28.....0...…...0...….0

19...…..47...33.....0...…...0...….0

20...…..39...30.....T...…...0...….0

21...…..39...31...0.99"...8.2"......8"

22...…..50...32...0.06"...0.2"......1"

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Another snowstorm is moving into the region. By the time the snow stops falling tomorrow morning, Newark, New York City, and Bridgeport could have their biggest snowfall of winter 2018-19.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.20°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.70°C for the week centered around February 20. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.53°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.48°C.

Similar ENSO conditions will likely persist through much of March with some possible fluctuations to just below weak El Niño levels. Some guidance suggests the potential for further warming of ENSO Region 3.4 in coming weeks.

The SOI was -5.22 today. It has been negative for 25 out of the last 26 days.

Today's preliminary value of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.373. The AO has now been positive for 23 consecutive days.

On March 2, the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 2.316 (RMM). The amplitude was somewhat lower than the March 1-adjusted figure of 2.372. The MJO will continue to advance toward Phase 3.

Based on historic data following similar ENSO conditions to those of February 2019, March 1-15 could provide perhaps the final window of opportunity for a moderate or perhaps significant snowstorm in the New York City area. That the MJO will likely enter March at a high amplitude is consistent with a colder start to the month. Due to shorter wave lengths, the state of the AO has little impact on the probability of such storms.

Overnight into tomorrow, a widespread 4"-8" of snow is likely across much of the New York City region. Those snowfall amounts are likely in such cities as Bridgeport, New City, New York City, Newark, Poughkeepsie, and White Plains. Islip should pick up 3"-6". An area running from northwestern New Jersey across central and northern Connecticut and then eastward across central and southern Massachusetts could have some locally higher amounts approaching 10".

Afterward, sustained warming could limit opportunities for snowfall. The potential for widespread high temperatures in the upper 40s into southern New England and 50s in portions of the Middle Atlantic region near mid-month exists.

The EPS has consistently been advertising just such a warm-up that would commence during the second week of March. At this time, the likelihood of such a warm-up is fairly high.

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23 hours ago, Snow88 said:

The warmer pattern that was progged to occur might be delayed.

MJO is going into 3 and then into the COD on the Euro and GFS

PNA will be also rising to positive.

Yeah, the EPS and GEFS means are hinting at a +PNA developing longer range. So our delayed spring theme of recent years continues. 

https://mobile.twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1102202154251665409

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With Officially 5.0 inches of snow in Central Park from last nights storm, NYC is now at 20.5 inches for the season which places this season 101st of the last 150 years.

NYC now needs only 17.7 inches of snow in the next 22 months for the new 30 year average, to reach 30 inches per year. If no snow fell until then it would be 29.4. The current average since January 1991 is 30.6 inches. The 150 year average is now 28.9 inches.

March now has 10.4 inches for the month and is now the snowiest month of the winter season for the fourth time in the last five years. Three of the last five March's have seen double digit snow amounts and 2017 at 9.7 inches just missed.

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On 3/2/2019 at 1:20 PM, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

With Officially 4.0 inches of snow in Central Park today NYC is now at 15.5 inches for the season which ties this season for 116th place out of the last 150 years of record keeping, tied with the winter of 1970/71.  

That winter was much colder than this winter, although not exceptionally so. What did fall stuck around a lot longer, January at 26.9° was the cold month that winter and with 11.4 inches of snow by far the snowiest. December at 34.4° and February at 35.1° were both near average for that period. March averaged 40.1° which is historically average, but a few degrees below what our new averages (1981-2010) are for March.

NYC now needs only 22.7 inches of snow in the next 22 months for the new 30 year average, which will be calculated in January 2021, to reach 30 inches per year. The current average snowfall for the period January 1991-March 2019 is now 30.5 inches. The 150 year average in NYC is 28.8 inches.

March now has 5.4 inches of snow for the first two days of the month, and only needs 1.1 inches by the end of the month to become the snowiest month of the winter season for the fourth time in the last five years.

This winter season now becomes only the second season in history that November and March will be the two snowiest months. The only other time this happened was the Winter of 1989-90.

Funny thing about March 1990, there was a near heat wave in the middle of the month!  We also had accumulating snow in April that year, around an inch.

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2 hours ago, BxEngine said:

Almost at 15” for March....glad we didnt get that -nao or these storms would have missed. :)

a -NAO would have kept it all snow for the coast, and also slowed down the storms so it would have lasted a lot longer than 12 hours.

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