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stormtracker

The March Long Range Discussion Thread, Winter's Last Stand

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4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Euro is nice at 96 hours.  WTF did this come from?

 

Ninja'd

It has kind of been there on the euro off and on for a while... the GFS has been going hard core cutter though and when the euro kind of took a step that way a couple days ago for a run or two I think many of us assumed that was where it was heading.  It has since trended back and the gfs has also started to deamplify the system but is still too warm.  The euro has killed the gfs a few times this year with temps though so there is reason to believe it might be onto something here.  Besides the fact its just flat out better lol  

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3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

yes... will be close though, there is still a lot of SE ridge to contend with but that look up top is why we are even talking about it and its not 70 degrees this week.  But that blocking up top forces the TPV to rotate down and sets off a chain of events that ends with a huge cold dump into the CONUS and several threats not just the one later this week...after that the weak wave around the 4th and then the chance at a more major amplification along the east coast around the 6th.  All of that is set into motion by that look up to which really is getting going right now.  Finally not some day 15 fantasy nonsense.  

psu,  you think after the period you mention above,  the tracking declines after say March 12 th ?  

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14 minutes ago, Mdecoy said:

Kind of feels like last winter. Bad pattern until March.

Last year was a legit BAD pattern until March and then a very long lasting sustained good pattern but a bit too late to reach full potential here.  This year was more a mediocre ok pattern MOST of the winter that we kept expecting to get great and just stayed kinda ehh.  The only time we really had a long lasting shutout pattern to deal with was the second half of December.  But the crazy epic long range looks kept making the kinda only ok reality a letdown. 

I don't think this pattern lasts as long ad last March did...the blocking looks less stable and more transient this time but it looks to set up a 10 day favorable window with possibly as many as 4 threats within that range.    

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Euro would be a nice little early morning event I guess...perfect timing of 1am-10am or so. Temp starts at 34-35ish around 1, drops to 29-30 at 7am and rises to 38-39 by 1pm. Probably would melt fast but another small morning event to cash in on

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3 minutes ago, frd said:

psu,  you think after the period you mention above,  the tracking declines after say March 12 th ?  

I do not think we will be tracking into late March or April this year but I am not sure exactly when it shuts off.  The guidance might be too fast in breaking down the current patter in the long range, like they have been all winter.  The MJO progression would favor a trough in the east until it gets into phase 4 and add in the lag time and that probably isn't until after March 15th or so.  Right now we have the wave Friday...another one early next week...the possible more major system mid week around the 6th...after that I could see one or two more threats before everything breaks down.  If the March 6th system bombs that would create an overrunning threat behind it from the next wave.  Hard to say...but it certainly doesn't look like there is a lack of systems coming across.  There could also be a relax and possibly one more attempt to get the trough into the east before it all breaks down mid month...  but either way once the mjo progresses into warm phases we are likely done for the season and that looks likely the second half of the month.  

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@psuhoffman some on another board are saying the same thing that  caused the NC hit in December will happen again on the Euro.

I am not so sure. The current set up at days 7 to 11 are not to me similiar to last December. If anything you could say a big dog is on the table.   

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Just now, frd said:

@psuhoffman some on another board are saying the same thing that  caused the NC hit in December will happen again on the Euro.

I am not so sure. The current set up at days 7 to 11 are not to me similiar to last December. If anything you could say a big dog is on the table.   

I think the wave early next week has a good chance of staying south of us though...are you sure they aren't talking about that one?

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

I think the wave early next week has a good chance of staying south of us though...are you sure they aren't talking about that one?

yes after that 

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Just now, frd said:

@psuhoffman some on another board are saying the same thing that  caused the NC hit in December will happen again on the Euro.

I am not so sure. The current set up at days 7 to 11 are not to me similiar to last December. If anything you could say a big dog is on the table.   

also...what really made that system stay south of us was just bad luck and timing.  You move that lobe that came through new england right ahead of the system out of there 24 hours in either direction and that probably makes it up to the Mason Dixon line at least.  I am not sure how they can be confident in such small scale chaos type things repeating like that from range.  

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4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

It's amazing to me..the Euro at 156 has a rather large precip mass moving toward the east coast and the GFS twins have nothing..or it's suppressed down to Cuba.

I think the gfs is lost...really really lost right now.  That said even favoring the Euro progression I think there is a good chance the system around the 4th ends up south of us.  Not for sure but I lean that way.  I think the wave around the 6th is more amplified though.  

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3 minutes ago, frd said:

yes after that 

Do those people either live in NC or in the NYC to Boston snow hole?  Both would be pretty biased...NC for obvious reasons...the NYC area seems to be in complete meltdown and since they really might be too far north...more likely than us....maybe they are just being debs.  But honestly, it could go south...I could see that, but I am not overly worried yet and I can't see how anyone can say something as fluky as what happened in December would repeat from that kind of range with confidence.  They have mad skills if that is so.  

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Do those people either live in NC or in the NYC to Boston snow hole?  Both would be pretty biased...NC for obvious reasons...the NYC area seems to be in complete meltdown and since they really might be too far north...more likely than us....maybe they are just being debs.  But honestly, it could go south...I could see that, but I am not overly worried yet and I can't see how anyone can say something as fluky as what happened in December would repeat from that kind of range with confidence.  They have mad skills if that is so.  

It is the NYC crew so that explians it a bit 

 

We might be in a better spot 

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2 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

Pretty weenie Euro run.  Hits on Days 4 and 8.  A threat to our south on Day 6.  

Ah.................the Bob Chill progression :sled:   I am digg'in it 

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1 minute ago, jaydreb said:

Pretty weenie Euro run.  Hits on Days 4 and 8.  A threat to our south on Day 6.  

And everything is under day 10!

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Not trying to be a downer but is the 2nd wave idea really that plausible? Seems like not much spacing between that and the earlier, more well developed slp a day or two earlier. 

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Just now, AmericanWxFreak said:

referring to the day 6 and 8 storms?

Yeah. I feel like I’ve seen that evolution modeled a lot in the past and it tends not to happen...tends to go towards one more bigger storm evolution. Maybe I’m wrong 

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8 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Euro hits us D8.  Of course we get a moderate hit, and looks like New England is going to get crushed

boxing day event in March smh

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13 minutes ago, tplbge said:

And everything is under day 10!

Yea because day 11 looks like the beginning of the end of winter

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8 minutes ago, Ji said:

Yea because day 11 looks like the beginning of the end of winter

Perfect.  If we could make a nice score or two the next 10 days and then get AN temps with BN precip for like 3 months that would be excellent.

 

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