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February 19-20th Threat - STORM MODE


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4 minutes ago, Ji said:

geez--the 3K Nam switches stuff at 10:00am to sleet. Not good. We need to go to 1pm

That’s because it shifts the heaviest banding north of you by 10am. Once you lose rates to mix the column the warm layers can take over.  South of that heavy fronto band will be mostly a sleety mixy crud. The significant snow accumulations will come in that band. Once it pushes north it’s over. 

You know this. You’ve seen this over and over. The runs that keep you snow until 1pm have that band over you into the afternoon. 

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

That’s because it shifts the heaviest banding north of you by 10am. Once you lose rates to mix the column the warm layers can take over.  South of that heavy fronto band will be mostly a sleety mixy crud. The significant snow accumulations will come in that band. Once it pushes north it’s over. 

You know this. You’ve seen this over and over. The runs that keep you snow until 1pm have that band over you into the afternoon. 

well i counted the 6-7 hours of snow panels. The models that had is mixing at 18z also started the moderate snow later. I would rather have it start earlier like the NAM3k is showing

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Just now, WxUSAF said:

3k NAM is probably close to 1" of sleet (3:1 ratios) on top of the snow north of DC based on precip totals between ~17z and ~23z.  

man...if there could just be an error in the modeling at the upper levels..what a storm this would be. This had HECS potential had we had better blocking. This was the epic feb storm that we were dreaming about in the Fall

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14 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Yeah, I keep forgetting about the 3k!  Thanks for the reminder.  One should hope that the better resolution would be a ton better.  I'm watching the surface temps closely.  At this point we know it's not going to be all snow and we're going to changeover.   But we do have a chance to hold on to the surface longer than modeled now.

NAM3 sfc temps at 00Z Thurs. Certainly not ideal for appreciable ice accretion, especially with higher rates (which more runoff). But, light fzra or fzdz at 32°F is certainly more efficient, especially on elevated surfaces, as we saw with the recent event in/near Mt. Airy. 

nam3km_T2m_neus_60.png

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Just now, Ji said:

that would be really bad at 19 degrees....at 31 degrees....it will look pretty on trees/mailboxe

After seeing so many trees come down in last week's storm, I think there should be some concern for more of the same with this storm. Any icing on trees combined with the crazy amount of rain we've had in the past year, is certainly going to be result in a higher risk of downed trees and power outages.

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Just now, nw baltimore wx said:

After seeing so many trees come down in last week's storm, I think there should be some concern for more of the same with this storm. Any icing on trees combined with the crazy amount of rain we've had in the past year, is certainly going to be result in a higher risk of downed trees and power outages.

I was quite surprised by how many trees and limbs came down, but I have a hard time remembering the last big ice event here so there were many weak trees and limbs that were poised to come down. Agreed, last storm was bad and took a life in Leesburg. Power issues on and off for 2 days.

 

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4 minutes ago, Ji said:

man...if there could just be an error in the modeling at the upper levels..what a storm this would be. This had HECS potential had we had better blocking. This was the epic feb storm that we were dreaming about in the Fall

I agree. We are still in the game for a nice thump to ice though. And if that banding gets directed over us and can keep the climb mixed near 32 long enough 6-8” isn’t out of the question. 

But yea had the NAO not failed again this was the hecs setup. -soi induces stj aimed at a cold high.  Knock down that SE ridge do the upper levels could amplify into the east and...oh well wasn’t to be. But this could still end up a pretty cool event if it stops trending north lol. 

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Just now, midatlanticweather said:

I was quite surprised by how many trees and limbs came down, but I have a hard time remembering the last big ice event here so there were many weak trees and limbs that were poised to come down. Agreed, last storm was bad and took a life in Leesburg. Power issues on and off for 2 days.

I think the major difference in an icing event this winter when compared to any event in the past is the saturated ground. NWS always talks up down trees and power issues in icing events, and sometimes we shrug it off, but this year is unique. 

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whatever happens, this should be an interesting storm to track the erosion of cad and transition of precip types.  i'm being serious...it could end up being fairly textbook, so it's a good opportunity for us non-mets to learn a few things about that process.

setup-wise...i think upside is a mini pd2...precip trajectory-wise, it's pretty similar...bust-wise, i think feb 94 comes into play where the prediction was for snow and we ended up with several inches of sleet.  my guess is somewhere in the middle with a few inches of snow with the transitions to follow.  might be difficult to stay majority snow in this case with a retreating airmass.  even pd2 flipped late in the game and this airmass isn't even remotely as strong.

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17 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

The ICON is a pretty substantial hit on the 12z run wrt the thump of snow. Out to 54 how, huge band centered right over DC/the corridor of CMD up to PSU. 

Icon been the weenie model of the week with this storm. Very consistent. Either going to earn some cred or be re-relegated to the JV squad with the jma, navgem, and sref. 

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5 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

I was quite surprised by how many trees and limbs came down, but I have a hard time remembering the last big ice event here so there were many weak trees and limbs that were poised to come down. Agreed, last storm was bad and took a life in Leesburg. Power issues on and off for 2 days.

 

I’m still hearing chain saws and chippers echoing through my neighborhood. We had a lot of tree damage in Damascus during the last event. I lost a large branch that fell on my shed. Temps here were 30-31 during the last event.

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2 minutes ago, 87storms said:

whatever happens, this should be an interesting storm to track the erosion of cad and transition of precip types.  i'm being serious...it could end up being fairly textbook, so it's a good opportunity for us non-mets to learn a few things about that process.

setup-wise...i think upside is a mini pd2...precip trajectory-wise, it's pretty similar...bust-wise, i think feb 94 comes into play where the prediction was for snow and we ended up with several inches of sleet.  my guess is somewhere in the middle with a few inches of snow with the transitions to follow.  might be difficult to stay majority snow in this case with a retreating airmass.  even pd2 flipped late in the game and this airmass isn't even remotely as strong.

Yeah I keep hoping we hold onto snow much longer and the cold holds longer than expected, but PD2 was much, much colder. I think when it was sleeting at the end of the storm, it was high teens or low 20's in College Park. Unfortunately, the warm air will eventually win with this one, and maybe sooner than later.

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Icon been the weenie model of the week with this storm. Very consistent. Either going to earn some feed or be re-relegated to the JV squad with the jma, navgem, and sref. 

i dont know...sometimes ICON hates storms that other models like. Its not like the FV3 that shows a snowstorm every 3 days. Usually when the ICON shows snow...its worth looking at

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1 minute ago, jnis said:

I’m still hearing chain saws and chippers echoing through my neighborhood. We had a lot of tree damage in Damascus during the last event. I lost a large branch that fell on my shed. Temps here were 30-31 during the last event.

yea my comment were mostly for the roads. I forgot about the tree situation

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Just now, osfan24 said:

I know the srefs aren't looked upon very highly but the mean for BWI is only 3 inches, which should be a red flag for all the bigger forecasted totals. Srefs tend to be bullish and predict too much snow in my experience.

How do they historically verify in CAD events like these?

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57 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Yeah I keep hoping we hold onto snow much longer and the cold holds longer than expected, but PD2 was much, much colder. I think when it was sleeting at the end of the storm, it was high teens or low 20's in College Park. Unfortunately, the warm air will eventually win with this one, and maybe sooner than later.

i was just peeking at the gfs wind maps and verbatim (though i know things are more complicated than this), the freezing line begins to encroach on the cities by early afternoon at both 850 and 700, so we should have a 6-8 hour window of snow..which is pretty good.  if it takes until mid afternoon, even better.

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2 minutes ago, nj2va said:

SREFs are useless in this setup imo (well frankly in most setups).  Mesoscales should be given the most weight especially as we’re under 48 hours from precip start.

All setups. 3k NAM certainly has value as does the Canadian mesos IMO.

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