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Frog Town

Overrunning Set-Up/Ice Storm 2/5-2/8

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With the much advertised warm-up already becoming muted and more cold air pressing, this should get good for much of the area.  Of course the trough needs to maintain the positive tilt, and if it does we could have multiple waves to interact with the cold to the north.  Lets see what happens!  

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The overall synoptic pattern is pretty favorable for ice.  Really comes down to the details of how the baroclinic zone is positioned and how the waves eject. 

Snow potential to the north of course but ice may end up being a bigger story. 

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Yeah, big cutter this run, would be warm and rain for most in the subforum.  The 850 zero line even gets pulled back through the se half of Iowa.  It's so difficult to get the pieces to come together just right to give a biggie to Cedar Rapids.  The biggies are fun to follow, but we do much better with cold clippers.

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10 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Yeah, big cutter this run, would be warm and rain for most in the subforum.  The 850 zero line even gets pulled back through the se half of Iowa.  It's so difficult to get the pieces to come together just right to give a biggie to Cedar Rapids.  The biggies are fun to follow, but we do much better with cold clippers.

Would be a very significant system for someone though. Lots of cold air to feed on.

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The 12Z GFS kept with the idea of a pretty significant ice storm. Ive been thru 2 significant ice storms in the last 6 years, I don't mind them. Though I do enjoy more extreme aspects of weather so that might be why. 

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On 2/1/2019 at 1:44 PM, Hoosier said:

12z Euro comes in with a different kind of evolution.  Big phaser.

Curious to see how a storm is going to cut into a 1038mb banana high to the low's northeast with 1045mb high coming down on the backside.

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6 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Curious to see how a storm is going to cut into a 1038mb banana high to the low's northeast with 1045mb high coming down on the backside.

Was thinking the same thing with that blocking to the North.  A degree of suppression seems in order with this.  Can't discount the Euro completely, just doesn't seem to match the pattern setting up.   

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This probably applies downwind of any of the Lakes but thinking about my area, this isn't one of those setups that Lake Michigan would be able to create a relatively ice free buffer zone near the lake, given the time of year and the lake temps after the big cold spell (could still have UHI to deal with for Chicago if they get involved, but that's different).  That factor is essentially removed as a concern and so it comes down to the bigger scale with the storm itself.

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Well, February is the time of year climate wise when I have my biggest concerns for ice here in the central IN region.   So at least this is relatively normal.   But it looks like this Friday evening's GFS is starting to move to the EURO warmth solution for much of IN at least on this run for next Thursday.

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17 hours ago, Stebo said:

Curious to see how a storm is going to cut into a 1038mb banana high to the low's northeast with 1045mb high coming down on the backside.

OZ Euro step in the right direction @ 144hr  996 over Chicago 

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Per typical, it's going to come down to s/w timing, strength, and interaction of streams.  Colder solution of the models now because instead of allowing that lead northern stream s/w to slow, dig, and phase with the southern stream around 120, it sort of zips off to the east, allowing the baroclinic zone to sag south.

It wouldn't completely surprise me to see the models shift back to a warmer setup (with a neutral or + NAO/AO being progged), but we'll have to wait and see.

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NAM may be useful in some aspect as it gets in range.  That being the thermal profiles north of the front, but perhaps not the location of the boundary.

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9 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said:

EURO still with a warmer, wound-up solution.  GFS/UKIE/GGEM with a more piecemeal, colder solution.

Place your bets.

"Consistent" EURO or GFS & friends fresh off a coup from last week? Heavy rain & thunderstorms vs ice storm IMBY? Dis gon be good...:lol::popcorn:

 

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2 hours ago, snowstormcanuck said:

Per typical, it's going to come down to s/w timing, strength, and interaction of streams.  Colder solution of the models now because instead of allowing that lead northern stream s/w to slow, dig, and phase with the southern stream around 120, it sort of zips off to the east, allowing the baroclinic zone to sag south.

It wouldn't completely surprise me to see the models shift back to a warmer setup (with a neutral or + NAO/AO being progged), but we'll have to wait and see.

OSPC sent this today 

"Heads up for Wednesday to Friday.. There is potential for a winter storm later Wednesday through Thursday and into Friday across Southern Ontario. There is a fair amount of uncertainty this far in advance. However many computer models are suggesting the possibility of significant amounts of freezing rain and snow. Stay tuned."

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I'd like to see more of a neutral tilt with the warm sector convection.  That northeast/southwest oriented tilted conveyor of convection can sometimes cut off deep moisture from wrapping back into the cold sector.  

EDIT:  The above is mostly in regards to the snow potential in the cold sector.  

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Something to watch with this setup in areas that get ice is how much of a diurnal temperature recovery occurs north of the boundary after round 1 on Wednesday.  If the ice is able to melt before the next round, that would lessen the impact to some extent.

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Huge differences in how the NAM and GFS are handling the baroclinic zone even at 72-84 hours.  This is NAM clown range though so it's probably more wrong in the position.  

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8 hours ago, snowstormcanuck said:

Per typical, it's going to come down to s/w timing, strength, and interaction of streams.  Colder solution of the models now because instead of allowing that lead northern stream s/w to slow, dig, and phase with the southern stream around 120, it sort of zips off to the east, allowing the baroclinic zone to sag south.

It wouldn't completely surprise me to see the models shift back to a warmer setup (with a neutral or + NAO/AO being progged), but we'll have to wait and see.

It's probably a safe bet that this won't be like December 2013, though?

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