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BuffaloWeather

Upstate/Eastern New York

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Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

North of town is getting obliterated. I’d love to see totals up there. Even in the lighter returns here I’m observing blizzard conditions with high wind gusts and visibility below 1/4 SM. Easily some of the most intense stuff I’ve seen yet.

If/when that band drops it’s going to be extraordinary. I think. 

Patience. It's going to take its time, but it'll be worth it. Might be best off to grab some sleep now while you can. 

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Just now, AppsRunner said:

Patience. It's going to take its time, but it'll be worth it. Might be best off to grab some sleep now while you can. 

Yeah I still feel good. This has been really fun to track. Might get one more jebwalk in before hitting the sack. 

Interesting to note that between 5:56pm and 1:15am, all the 5 minute KART obs were 1/4 SM or lower. 12 gusts over 35, 3 gusts over 40 in that span. Impressive. 

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NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...

The Blizzard Warnings has been allowed to expire. Winds have slackened just enough to lower the threat of widespread blizzard conditions. Wind speeds should also continue to lower a bit more through the overnight hours. However, winds will still remain strong enough to create considerable blowing snow with near whiteout conditions at times in and right around the lake snows. Winter Storm Warnings remain in place for areas east and northeast of the lakes.

Radar imagery showing a southward shift to the lake snows off Lake Erie as the steering flow has become just a bit more westerly. This trend should continue through the overnight hours, with the lake snows settling across Southern Erie/Wyoming counties and into far northern portions of Chautauqua/Cattaraugus counties. The lake snows are also weaken a bit with a decrease in mid level moisture and capping inversion heights. During the day Thursday, there will be another expected northward shift to the lake snows as the low level flow backs and sends the bands back into Northern Erie and Genesee counties again, with the northern fringes of these reaching to about the Buffalo airport and Batavia.

Meanwhile off Lake Ontario, one main snow plume has developed across northern Jefferson county into far northern Lewis county, with Watertown on the southern fringe. Snowfall rates within this band likely exceeding 2 inches per hour. This band will remain nearly stationary through about 4 or 5 am then will begin to shift southward as the flow turns a little more westerly. The band will then remain nearly stationary through the day Thursday. Plenty of deep moisture, a multi-lake connection, the long fetch along the long axis of the lake and favorable orographics will lead to feet of snow across Jefferson, Lewis and northern Oswego counties, with the heaviest accumulations focused across the Tug Hill.

Otherwise, dangerously cold temperatures and wind chills will continue through the day Thursday. Wind chill values 40 to 20 below zero are also expected as westerly winds continue, the coldest wind chills will be across the western Southern Tier.

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IDK. I hate to put salt, but I’m not seeing any signs of the band sinking into the southern TUG. Another scenario where Carol sees boat loads of snow while Redfield south just gets brushed (at best).. The ARW still shows huge accumulation in the south but let’s be honest, it’s been showing that over and over and has been consistently wrong. The Canadian and NMM have had better handles and don’t suffer from this ‘southern ‘ bias. 

I really can’t recall another time where the southern Tug has been so left out. 

Im starting to think the best way to forecast these plumes is to strictly observe the upstream orientations and discount modeled expectations. With the last two storms, it became apparent, by looking at placement of Erie bands, that the forecast was simply too far south. And by a solid 20-40 miles. 

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Thundersnow reported by Channel 9 Syracuse, around Adams Center, around 5:15am.  Barnes Corners must be getting walloped with 3-5" rates, I'd presume....

The band will settle a few more miles south, then shift north after 12-14z.....then slowly back south (a bit further into central Oswego Co. by late evening/ overnight.)...and then contract back to the lake by Friday morning.  I think 3+ feet, 5 miles either side of a line from Adams Center to Montague, is very likely. 

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21 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

The band is JUST to my north. Shoot...me...now.

Are you serious?  Where in God's name are you exactly so I know!  I thought you were right there where the tri-counties come together? Guess I was wrong, my bad as I thought you were in a completely diff location!

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Just now, CNY-WXFREAK said:

Are you serious?  Where in God's name are you exactly so I know!  I thought you were right there where the tri-counties come together? Guess I was wrong, my bad as I thought you were in a completely diff location!

I am in Southern Redfield, between Redfield and Osceola...right on the Lewis County line. Great for upsloping...and so far AWFUL for LES.

I can literally see the sun just off to my south, while I sir under a cloud bank with not one flake. If the band drifted less than a mile south I would be pound town city.

So painful.

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Just now, TugHillMatt said:

I am in Southern Redfield, between Redfield and Osceola...right on the Lewis County line. Great for upsloping...and so far AWFUL for LES.

I can literally see the sun just off to my south, while I sir under a cloud bank with not one flake. If the band drifted less than a mile south I would be pound town city.

So painful.

Many times, when a band is moving (in this case it drifted south), the heaviest snows will be located on the edge, where the convergence zone is, opposite of motion with respect to the radar depiction.  (In this case, on the northern 1/3 of the radar returns) sometimes, you will see high reflectivities over your head (800-1200 feet) but the flakes at that level are being drawn into the convergence zone (in this case, just to your north!!)

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Its times like these that are just maddening to me as you just sit there and watch the radar and look out the window, lol!

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1 minute ago, LakeEffectKing said:

Many times, when a band is moving (in this case it drifted south), the heaviest snows will be located on the edge, where the convergence zone is, opposite of motion with respect to the radar depiction.  (In this case, on the northern 1/3 of the radar returns) sometimes, you will see high reflectivities over your head (800-1200 feet) but the flakes at that level are being drawn into the convergence zone (in this case, just to your north!!)

Thanks for the info.

Just started snowing lightly here, with some big flakes.

I am hoping that little jog south out by Pulaski continues here.

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3 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

Its times like these that are just maddening to me as you just sit there and watch the radar and look out the window, lol!

That's exactly what I an doing...and providing up to second updates on here.

Meteorological multi-tasking.

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While it doesn't look great on radar the northern band is pouring snow. I just drove through it on Borden and visibility was down to about 100' with little wind.

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Golf weather returns next week. Rain and 50 degrees for a few days.  I'll take it. We will get Liverpool GC open for a February round soon.

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21 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said:

Many times, when a band is moving (in this case it drifted south), the heaviest snows will be located on the edge, where the convergence zone is, opposite of motion with respect to the radar depiction.  (In this case, on the northern 1/3 of the radar returns) sometimes, you will see high reflectivities over your head (800-1200 feet) but the flakes at that level are being drawn into the convergence zone (in this case, just to your north!!)

I had several experiences with that in Oswego, and a couple times chasing through Pulaski/Sandy Creek. 

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10 minutes ago, Luke_Mages said:

While it doesn't look great on radar the northern band is pouring snow. I just drove through it on Borden and visibility was down to about 100' with little wind.

Borden in Depew?

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17 minutes ago, Luke_Mages said:

While it doesn't look great on radar the northern band is pouring snow. I just drove through it on Borden and visibility was down to about 100' with little wind.

I can confirm this. It’s snowing the heaviest it has probably about 2” an hour and almost a total whiteout. I’m up to 13.6” for the event. 

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28 minutes ago, CNY_WX said:

Not to be the bearer of bad news but it looks like the band is taking a jog north out over the lake. 

Last few frames look like it pushed south a bit.

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12 minutes ago, AppsRunner said:

I had several experiences with that in Oswego, and a couple times chasing through Pulaski/Sandy Creek. 

I posted this a quite awhile back....as a visual aid:

58642b359834d_LakeEffectSnowdiagram.png.e9094b091d1678789eae9beba0cecaa9.png

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It is total crushing here. Just stay for a few more hours and I’ll be on my way to 18”. It’s gotta be pushing 2” an hour and surprisingly not much wind! 

 

E0868C66-2959-49B5-8723-CA80BBD845A0_zps

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Just now, WesterlyWx said:

It is total crushing here. Just stay for a few more hours and I’ll be on my way to 18”. It’s gotta be pushing 2” an hour and surprisingly not much wind! 

 

E0868C66-2959-49B5-8723-CA80BBD845A0_zps

Not surprising....you're directly under the convergence zone/line....the prime spot!!!

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