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15 minutes ago, AppsRunner said:

For those downwind of Ontario not really seeing much right now...

Band should lift at least a little northward through the afternoon and evening as winds start to back a bit more. Watertown got pretty unlucky yesterday where and east-west oriented band managed to stay due north of them for a while, and there's a pretty impressive snowfall gradient there by now. I'd have to imagine the band lifts to about Watertown/Carthage this evening before winds become a bit more WNWerly by late this evening. Flow looks fairly well aligned through most of the night and would point towards areas of central/northern Oswego county finally getting some appreciable snows. Inversion heights start to fall overnight so we aren't looking at the 2-4"/hr. in the core of the band right now, but still could see 2"/hr. rates for an extended period of time if the band stays fairly steady state. By Friday afternoon we may see one last swing up north as the band shrinks/weakens and warm air advection moves in. 

Still generally like the idea of about 24-36 from Sandy Creek to Adams Center and about 12-24 anywhere within 5 miles of that, especially in the Tug. 

Thanks for the write-up. Looking at models, I thought my best shot would be tonight. You think Redfield/Osceola could get appreciable amounts?

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9 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Yeah last night was really good, but hard not to wonder what could have been if I wasn’t 4 miles too south and 2 miles too north. It happens so I’m still glad I made the trip. The ground blizzard last night was impressive.

Would be good to get a last hurrah late this afternoon/evening as the bottom falls out on temps. 

I think you'll even make a run at getting into this band within the next couple hours if it continues to lift further north. If you have a car and want to attempt to drive to Adams or Adams Center you'll have a good time. 

2 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Thanks for the write-up. Looking at models, I thought my best shot would be tonight. You think Redfield/Osceola could get appreciable amounts?

Depends what your definition of "appreciable" is. I'd be willing to bet Redfield gets at least 12", there's a 12-18 hour long period of better aligned flow tonight into tomorrow. 

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Just now, AppsRunner said:

I think you'll even make a run at getting into this band within the next couple hours if it continues to lift further north. If you have a car and want to attempt to drive to Adams or Adams Center you'll have a good time. 

Depends what your definition of "appreciable" is. I'd be willing to bet Redfield gets at least 12", there's a 12-18 hour long period of better aligned flow tonight into tomorrow. 

Hah. True. Definitely know I am not getting 3 to 4 feet! Appreciable would be over a foot.

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Not for nothing, but I really don't think this cold is that all impressive nor historic in any sense of the imagination. I've seen much colder temperatures in much better Winters put it that way. On the other hand the snow aspect of the winter has been quite a bismal to this point and I don't see any changes

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Wolfie, tughill, and cnylesfreak how much snow would you guys peg the city of oswego getting tonight once the winds align wnw??  Just Looking at that hhr map accum. Map and it off looks like such a tight gradient...Im up here by the suny oswego college  looking due north and you can visually see the plume of lake effect band pummeling so Jeff, and northern oswego...also how long does that lake effect band kn a wnw flow stay stationary tonight?? Or do youbguys seeing it oscillating some?? Thanks guys

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This would not surprise me one bit haha
Hrrr has been pretty consistent with developing a band just to the south for the overnight hours, close to the lake shore..
Sometimes you just can't win 
319321756_ref1km_ptype.us_ne(2).thumb.png.28eeae5fc0e085b519d01f9bdd3c9b5b.png
Wait is that developing band over me or in the middle of you and I? The way this year has been going I would definitely Place between you and I for sure

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I don't see that band, if even a band does develop in southern Oswego County somewhere I bet Fulton Palermo Central Square just to the north of me would be the best possible place to get tagged like I said if anything does in fact form, but I wouldn't really bet on it, at this point!

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I can't believe how long they are letting some of these winter storm warnings run.  Seems like East of Erie is pretty much in the clear now.  
Also, what does jebwalk mean?  So confused on that one.  
There's a guy in the DC forum called, I forgot his name but he takes long walks in large Winter storms and they call them Jeb walks because I believe his name is Jeb to be honest with you, LOL

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4 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

I can't believe how long they are letting some of these winter storm warnings run.  Seems like East of Erie is pretty much in the clear now.  

Also, what does jebwalk mean?  So confused on that one.  

Almost total Whiteout here in Hamburg, band has strengthened again. 

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27 minutes ago, mattny88 said:

Need your guys hrlp and thoughts? How much snow  amounts you guys thinking for the city of oswego later this evening and into tonight once the winds toward  mpre wnwesterly???

16 minutes ago, mattny88 said:

Wolfie, tughill, and cnylesfreak how much snow would you guys peg the city of oswego getting tonight once the winds align wnw??  Just Looking at that hhr map accum. Map and it off looks like such a tight gradient...Im up here by the suny oswego college  looking due north and you can visually see the plume of lake effect band pummeling so Jeff, and northern oswego...also how long does that lake effect band kn a wnw flow stay stationary tonight?? Or do youbguys seeing it oscillating some?? Thanks guys

I assume you're probably a new met student at SUNY Oswego? PM me if you ever want, recent grad.

I'd say less than an inch. At least classes were cancelled today. 

4 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Seriously? So the band jumps over us and reforms to the south?

This winter is just too much. I am going to be bald by March.

You're going to pick up some snow. The HRRR is bad with LES intensity/placement/inland extent. I can't say I ever really use it even during the events themselves. 

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1 hour ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Beginning to snow again in Williamsville. Band looks to be no more than 4 or 5 miles wide so it might just make a pass through here. 

That band is so narrow that we have bright sunshine and moderate snow at the same time.

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56 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said:

Not for nothing, but I really don't think this cold is that all impressive nor historic in any sense of the imagination. I've seen much colder temperatures in much better Winters put it that way. On the other hand the snow aspect of the winter has been quite a bismal to this point and I don't see any changes

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Cny doesnt get its best cold this way. Youd rather have nnwerlies out of ontario and quebec as opposed to the cold entering MN and modified by the lakes from the west. 

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49 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

My boss just handed me an article with pictures from this area when Redfield got over 11 feet of snow on one week of February 2007.

I said, "Oh, so lake effect bands do hit here...."

He said, "Yeah, just not this year..."

Lol

If you have time check this out.

At least that storm spread some love down this way. 

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