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Ji

The Mystical Month of February--Long Range Discussion

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its finally here. All the long range climate models back in the fall had this as being our epic month

 

here we go!

 

ecmwf_T850a_namer_11.png

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16 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Actually saw some good improvements with both the EPS and the GEFS overnight. (using 5 day means below)

Below are the 00Z EPS and 12Z respectively. Most notable are that we are now seeing a move to push the mean trough eastward. We are also seeing a breakdown of the higher heights in the east. Though there is more needed (especially shifting the ridging in the PAC eastward) this is a workable pattern, much more so then the 12Z.

00ZEPS

00zeps.gif.68d9dc4198551778c70ff5538b0ff8fc.gif

 

12Z EPS

12zeps.gif.bfcf0845d87372a01a96a3845c0614f1.gif

 

GEFS (same time frame as the EPS above) still has the better look though and that improved overnight from the 12z. The biggest improvements were seen with the western ridging and the weakening of the SW trough as well as a weakening of the higher heights in the east. The look below is actually pretty decent and would suggest possible over running/gradient system potential.

00Z GEFS

00zgefs.gif.950de392edf5a2a511a784eac258bf6b.gif

 

12Z GEFS

12zgefs.gif.d1012666cd1d86848a9feba271049060.gif

 

Moving this over from the previous thread.

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4 hours ago, Ji said:

@Bobchill eps disagreeing with weeklies again 6e68d5bcf0febbf69d6f6875dcc6f99e.jpg

Bob’s right anything past day 10 this year is as worthless as a day 15 CRAS extrapolation 

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51 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Moving this over from the previous thread.

Guidance suggests a gradient pattern with waves running the boundary. That can work if we can get lower heights to our northeast. NAO would help of course. 

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1 minute ago, Icefishingrocks said:

New to the board.  Goodmorning from a remote location along the railroad.  I'm looking forward to watching this little event unfold before our eyes today.  

Welcome!  You can post obs for today’s storm here: 

 

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Guidance suggests a gradient pattern with waves running the boundary. That can work if we can get lower heights to our northeast. NAO would help of course. 
Hope we're on the right side cause it looks active

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So it appears were pretty much locked in to temperatures spiking early next week like Monday-Wednesday. After that it looks like some colder air may try to infiltrate again, maybe we can get a storm right around Thursday-Sunday of next week. I'm no expert, but that looks like the next time period where there's any potential. Only chance early next week is rain, hopefully we don't get a lot. 

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Cranky's blog from yesterday does not buy a magical February. He doesn't even see us having any chance for wintry precip until the third week, we are barely in the mix zone. He give us a shot at being on the southern edge of a storm in the final week, but downplays the chances saying that the northeast doesn't typically have many late February blockbusters.

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2 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Cranky's blog from yesterday does not buy a magical February. He doesn't even see us having any chance for wintry precip until the third week, we are barely in the mix zone. He give us a shot at being on the southern edge of a storm in the final week, but downplays the chances saying that the northeast doesn't typically have many late February blockbusters.

What great meteorological insight there. Why do people following this guy again?

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8 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Cranky's blog from yesterday does not buy a magical February. He doesn't even see us having any chance for wintry precip until the third week, we are barely in the mix zone. He give us a shot at being on the southern edge of a storm in the final week, but downplays the chances saying that the northeast doesn't typically have many late February blockbusters.

He's worse than the weeklies.  

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2 minutes ago, nj2va said:

He's worse than the weeklies.  

Eh, FWIW, Cranky has never really been on board with a big winter. He's about the only one who hasn't. He did think we would have a nice run of six weeks to close things out, which is already wrong, but he never hyped it as being anything more than winter in the Northeast.

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2 minutes ago, nj2va said:

He's worse than the weeklies.  

He's taking the road most traveled. How easy is it to just go with the last 8 weeks of rough times continuing? Will work perfectly until it doesn't. Have no idea if we score some nice events this month but the current long range trends show the potnetial for a significant change to a far different type of look than we've seen all season so far. Too far away to have confidence but cranky may look pretty dumb in 10 days. At least it's inside of 2 weeks for now.

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

He's taking the road most traveled. How easy is it to just go with the last 8 weeks of rough times continuing? Will work perfectly until it doesn't. Have no idea if we score some nice events this month but the current long range trends show the potnetial for a significant change to a far different type of look than we've seen all season so far. Too far away to have confidence but cranky may look pretty dumb in 10 days. At least it's inside of 2 weeks for now.

Oh yeah, he may certainly be right as in your famous words, perhaps winter has already shown its hand.  Easier to side with more of the same than putting your neck out calling for a change in February.  The LR is performing just absurdly low this season which gives me 0 confidence in any forecast heading into next month.  We'll see how things play out like you say.

I just don't understand the "blockbusters usually don't happen in late February in the northeast" bit...is he talking about northeast Florida?

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A pretty nice long range panel on the 6Z FV3 this morning. Verbatim it is squashed. But I would take that my chances with that setup and see what happens. Also has a long range bomb that tracks just a little too far north for us. It has monster HP over the top though so who knows if it can really cut? Definitely things to watch in the long range. This winter is far from over IMO.

500hv.na.png

500hv.na.png

 

 

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1 minute ago, nj2va said:

Oh yeah, he may certainly be right as in your famous words, perhaps winter has already shown its hand.  Easier to side with more of the same than putting your neck out calling for a change in February.  The LR is performing just absurdly low this season which gives me 0 confidence in any forecast heading into next month.  We'll see how things play out like you say.

I just don't understand the "blockbusters usually don't happen in late February in the northeast" bit...is he talking about northeast Florida?

Have there been though, at least for our area? I don't remember any HECS past our February 2003 storm. And other than that, most of our HECS seem like late January/early February storms.

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1 minute ago, osfan24 said:

Have there been though, at least for our area? I don't remember any HECS past our February 2003 storm. And other than that, most of our HECS seem like late January/early February storms.

Yeah, the March 2013 HECS....oops.  :yikes:

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2 hours ago, Ji said:
2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:
Guidance suggests a gradient pattern with waves running the boundary. That can work if we can get lower heights to our northeast. NAO would help of course. 

Hope we're on the right side cause it looks active

maybe, hidden within the crappy means day 10-15 is the fact that NAM is cold and so the northern part of the ridge wont really be warm AND differences in timing with waves mutes some chances that something is running the boundary under us in that time.  But in general ATT things favor north of us more.  Doesn't mean we cant get one of those waves to stay under us though.  If the day 15 look is right on both the EPS and GEFS chances would improve after that.  

23 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

@Ji

Gefs trying to win a pattern flip war. Lol. A couple more positive changes on the eps and the weeklies from 2 weeks ago will verify.

The GEFS slowed down the progression some and the EPS sped it up more and now they agree on the general progression and timing of the pattern with a muted SE ridge and boundary waves pattern day 10-15 that favors to our north but is NOT a shutout or no hope look by any means and then possibly establishing an eastern trough around day 15 on.   I remember many of the long range discussions at NCEP talking about the favored 60/40 compromise between the EPS/GEFS being the most likely to verify at any given time.  Yea you have to adjust that when you see evidence that one is just flat wrong...but typically that works best.  This time it was more like 60/40 GEFS.  The GEFS was advertising the flip would be a little sooner and the EPS if you extrapolated (and weeklies confirmed) was delaying it out to like day 18/19.  The GFS slowed down the progression like 2 days and the EPS sped it up like 4 days and now they both agree the trough shifts east around day 15.  There are also signs the LAST 24 hours on the EPS that the -nao is building.  It is on the 15 day again now and not out it super duper uber unicorn land but this is it.  This is the last chance to flip the nao in a meaningful way to salvage part of prime climo.  Yea we could still flip in march and get a fluke storm...but if we want a legit chance at a serious run here this is last chance charlie.  ALL guidance is once again advertising another attempt to flip the NAO.  The "experts" said the pacific wouldnt run destructive interference this time.  We will see...but it needs to start moving forward in time and becoming clearer on the anomalies.  I have no confidence but its good that its showing up again and that it took a significant jump forward in time on the euro products in the last 24 hours.  

 

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9 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Oh yeah, he may certainly be right as in your famous words, perhaps winter has already shown its hand.  Easier to side with more of the same than putting your neck out calling for a change in February.  The LR is performing just absurdly low this season which gives me 0 confidence in any forecast heading into next month.  We'll see how things play out like you say.

I just don't understand the "blockbusters usually don't happen in late February in the northeast" bit...is he talking about northeast Florida?

From what I'm seeing, good looks are all hinging on the ridging building into GL or Davis Strait, or even around Hudson. All ops show it starting to build basically right now but don't get really good until on or after the 7th where it finally starts compressing flow and creating real suppression of height fields in the conus. The numerical NAO doesn't tell the real story because pressure is too high in the atlantic but that doesn't negate the fact that everything is showing upper level ridging where it counts around GL. 

It's been a really rough year for long range guidance (understatement lol). Still can't just ignore that a very attractive height pattern is trying to get going in the NAO region. 2-3 more days of consistent modeling and no can kicking and it's probably going to happen. Then we'll need the 27 other things to break right to get a snowstorm. lol

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36 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

From what I'm seeing, good looks are all hinging on the ridging building into GL or Davis Strait, or even around Hudson. All ops show it starting to build basically right now but don't get really good until on or after the 7th where it finally starts compressing flow and creating real suppression of height fields in the conus. The numerical NAO doesn't tell the real story because pressure is too high in the atlantic but that doesn't negate the fact that everything is showing upper level ridging where it counts around GL. 

It's been a really rough year for long range guidance (understatement lol). Still can't just ignore that a very attractive height pattern is trying to get going in the NAO region. 2-3 more days of consistent modeling and no can kicking and it's probably going to happen. Then we'll need the 27 other things to break right to get a snowstorm. lol

Yeah, looks like 2/8 and beyond might get workable, but just need to hope for AO NAO help or we ride the wrong side of the boundary.  Still no dumpster fire so I'm like you, feeling better, but still need help....lotsa help.

Keep at it bud...you've been solid/real this year.  Like your style.

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1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

He's taking the road most traveled. How easy is it to just go with the last 8 weeks of rough times continuing? Will work perfectly until it doesn't. Have no idea if we score some nice events this month but the current long range trends show the potnetial for a significant change to a far different type of look than we've seen all season so far. Too far away to have confidence but cranky may look pretty dumb in 10 days. At least it's inside of 2 weeks for now.

But in the end which verifies more accurately? The guy who pounds home the pattern tendencies over past 8 weeks and keeps nailing it or the guy who keeps saying it's coming it's just delayed every week for 8 weeks? This isnt a jab at anyone I want to hear what people think.

 

1 hour ago, nj2va said:

Oh yeah, he may certainly be right as in your famous words, perhaps winter has already shown its hand.  Easier to side with more of the same than putting your neck out calling for a change in February.  The LR is performing just absurdly low this season which gives me 0 confidence in any forecast heading into next month.  We'll see how things play out like you say.

I just don't understand the "blockbusters usually don't happen in late February in the northeast" bit...is he talking about northeast Florida?

Joe public doesnt care if he took the "easy road" or if he spent 120 hours with a draft board and pencil using quantum physics and mathematics/calculus to arrive at the solution. As long as you get to a point does it really matter how you arrived there? Unless you are being graded.

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Euro looks like it goes into phase 8 and even phase 1 at low amplitude but that will probably increase as we get closer.

ECMF_phase_MANOM_51m_full.gif

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here is GFSimage.png.70b717140c810f1cf347d4e29f301c09.png

 

not posting the bias one cause it looks scary lol

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4 consecutive GEFS runs with a good upper air pattern building. The Greenland blocking starts building the entire run but the conus pattern doesn't get right until the fabled d10-15 range. 

Feb 7th front is slowly becoming a lock. After that has a couple directions. Ridging in the east may build back before getting knocked down again or once the Feb 7th front clears we stay near or below normal. Seeing the EPS take a significant run over run step towards the gefs was a relief. EPS normally does little baby steps each run but 0z was a legit "stride" towards a better upper air pattern moving in. 

I'm just hoping we can pull off at least 1 more warning level event in Feb. I'm very hesitant to believe we flip to epicosity  before mid month then go on a heater. It's within the realm of possible outcomes but being conservative is probably the far smarter option. I'd say we'll know one way or another within a week. 

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