87storms Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 3 minutes ago, Ji said: ICON destroy us i think gfs might too, or at least be pretty close. that is a lot of qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15, 2019 Author Share Posted February 15, 2019 ICON is usually a cheapskate with snow....this is significant for the icon... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 Just now, 87storms said: i think gfs might too, or at least be pretty close. that is a lot of qpf. It’s pretty pretty pretty good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15, 2019 Author Share Posted February 15, 2019 this might be our most fun storm of the winter--certainly alot wetter than Jan 12/13 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 GFS looks like 12z except the High is a bit stronger. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 North of ezf doesn’t lose 850s until 15-18z Wednesday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 26 minutes ago, jewell2188 said: Watch out, he may private message you lil We fight on twitter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15, 2019 Author Share Posted February 15, 2019 i can see the NAM giving us a 2 foot storm at some point...this is such a NAM type of storm 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 18z FV3 looks intriguing through 96... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 2 minutes ago, Ji said: ICON is usually a cheapskate with snow....this is significant for the icon... How much of that is ice? Or, more precisely I guess, when does it change to ice? The TT precip plots for that model I know are awful, since it doesn't show mix/ice even when there is (it displays as rain). And yeah, I'm too lazy right now to check the temps...figuring someone already has, LOL!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 Fv3 looks good. 850 implies next frame would be snow too. happy hour is back!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 Effin TT at 120 hrs sits and spins for me. It’s the money shot that I have to hold off on!? Eta: Well at least FV3! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Fv3 looks good. 850 implies next frame would be snow too. happy hour is back!!! And low is a bit farther east in TN, without also being more north? (ETA: wait, I might be thinking of the ops GFS, not the FV3, from the previous cycle, but anyhow...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 2 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said: How much of that is ice? Or, more precisely I guess, when does it change to ice? The TT precip plots for that model I know are awful, since it doesn't show mix/ice even when there is (it displays as rain). And yeah, I'm too lazy right now to check the temps...figuring someone already has, LOL!! None of it. Icon counts ice as rain not snow. Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Fv3 looks good. 850 implies next frame would be snow too. happy hour is back!!! It’s almost 1040 high..very nice 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 FV3 beatdown 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 How much of that is ice? Or, more precisely I guess, when does it change to ice? The TT precip plots for that model I know are awful, since it doesn't show mix/ice even when there is (it displays as rain). And yeah, I'm too lazy right now to check the temps...figuring someone already has, LOL!! The ICON doesn’t show any ice at all, whether on its snow map or it’s PTYPE depiction. Uses something called the “True SLR ratio” which tends to be conservative. Snow map would actually be a lot higher if it kept it as ice, verbatim it flips many of us to rain and below 32 at the end of the storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 FV3 FTW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 Just now, psuhoffman said: None of it. Icon counts ice as rain not snow. Lol LOL!! Well, that makes sense then now that I think of it, if it considers ice as just rain (and wouldn't add to the snow total)! Crazy. Anyhow, I'm assuming there is ice sometime right after that snow plot is valid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 Just now, Always in Zugzwang said: And low is a bit farther east in TN, without also being more north? That is the trend worth watching. Getting that east pushes the better waa into our area faster. Less risk of it sliding to our NW. Plus you get that low into eastern TN and there is even a chance it jumps and the whole thing stays under us. Crazier things have happened. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 go ahead psu tell us how this one will fail or are there actually too many ways for you to pick, saving us 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 1 minute ago, Jandurin said: go ahead psu tell us how this one will fail or are there actually too many ways for you to pick, saving us Keep an eye on that 50/50 low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 Just now, psuhoffman said: That is the trend worth watching. Getting that east pushes the better waa into our area faster. Less risk of it sliding to our NW. Plus you get that low into eastern TN and there is even a chance it jumps and the whole thing stays under us. Crazier things have happened. Yup, was thinking of that, as you mentioned it earlier (with 12Z GFS). That 12Z GFS had the low in western TN as I recall, this run of the FV3 looks to be around south-central TN, but it's hard to tell because the "stamp" covers up some of the detail and isn't necessarily the location of the "center" or closed region. But it does look close to there FWIW. Good trends today, that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 something could be brewing for later in the week as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 3 minutes ago, Jandurin said: go ahead psu tell us how this one will fail or are there actually too many ways for you to pick, saving us The easiest way for it to fail is probably delayed ejection of the disturbance 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 5 minutes ago, Jandurin said: go ahead psu tell us how this one will fail or are there actually too many ways for you to pick, saving us Lol If it ejects in weak waves. If it waits too long to eject. If the ridge trough axis shifts further west. If the 50/50 trends weaker or east. Lots of ways. ...but I have a good feeling about this one. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15, 2019 Author Share Posted February 15, 2019 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Lol If it ejects in weak waves. If it waits too long to eject. If the ridge trough axis shifts further west. If the 50/50 trends weaker or east. Lots of ways. ...but I have a good feeling about this one. what feels good is that its Friday night and the storm basiccally develops Monday nights. its not 5-7 days away. My demarcation point of when i start taking a storm seriously is when it still has it at 132 hours. We are basically at 96 hours and thats a big surge of moisture lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 Not to be a downer, but it is worth noting the FV3 does flip to rain and dumps ~0.75"+ in the 24 hours after that change-over. Of course the same amount or more falls before that, as snow/ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 Just now, Always in Zugzwang said: Not to be a downer, but it is worth noting the FV3 does flip to rain and dumps ~0.75"+ in the 24 hours after that change-over. Of course the same amount or more falls before that, as snow/ice. Better than how it looked 48 hours ago so at least this beats that. Maybe the CAD will hold longer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 Just now, BristowWx said: Better than how it looked 48 hours ago so at least this beats that. Maybe the CAD will hold longer Absolutely, I agree. But just saw that when I looked at more detail. Much better than the no chance all rain scenario we were looking at yesterday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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