Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,586
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    23Yankee
    Newest Member
    23Yankee
    Joined

The Mystical Month of February--Long Range Discussion


Ji
 Share

Recommended Posts

1 hour ago, Wentzadelphia said:

This day 8-9 event has some legs. It doesnt look like it will be a clean event with no 50/50 to keep the low south, however there is good antecedent cold and HP in a great spot. Could certainly see a thump to drizzle type event in the cards if everything works right for us. 

Its the kind of set up NW of the cities can do pretty decent with. Thump to dry slot or drizzle as it jumps. As you said it is a pretty good air mass and a really nice HP position over the top. A little bit stronger HP and we are all dancing. Still a ways out there though.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Looking at the eps members the majority cluster favors the big snow being north of the PA line with the DC area with fringe totals. There is a significant monitory camp that flush hits DC and some that are south even. I would still like to see the majority shift south as climo and the look on the EPS is a touch north of what I would like. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, BristowWx said:

Shame because SE ridge can be you friend.  Most times it’s not.  

Week 3 is a colder version of week 2. Considering the amazing accuracy of week 3 all season we should expect week 3 to end up moderately to significantly different than what it shows today. In other words... I no longer care what the weeklies show anymore. If they're right then no shutout pattern from next weekend through mid march but nothing exciting either. Kinda like what the last 3-4 weeks have been like.

But they will be wrong so I expect a continuation of long range analysis that has a new topic to discuss every couple days but no clarity or confidence beyond 7-10 days. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Week 3 is a colder version of week 2. Considering the amazing accuracy of week 3 all season we should expect week 3 to end up moderately to significantly different than what it shows today. In other words... I no longer care what the weeklies show anymore. If they're right then no shutout pattern from next weekend through mid march but nothing exciting either. Kinda like what the last 3-4 weeks have been like.

But they will be wrong so I expect a continuation of long range analysis that has a new topic to discuss every couple days but no clarity or confidence beyond 7-10 days. 

i bet the NAO is something that will just come suddenly without much lead time...like it just start showing up big time 5-6 days out. Not sure when that would be though lol

Link to comment
Share on other sites

26 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

That looks serviceable. Better than I have seen. 

It ain't bad..just a weird look overall. A little bit of everything. I see plenty of conflict in the members looking at the means lately. In a few days we might  know where the pattern is heading.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, Ji said:

isnt there some weenie SE ridge rule that says it can help prevents storm from going out to sea or something

If you have an east based epo ridge and displaced tpv like 2014 2015 or a 1045 high over upstate NY like 2003 then some muted se ridge can help.  99% of the time we are too far south to win with a SE ridge. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, jacindc said:

I vote for a separate threat thread again. For those of us who want to know if something's coming but who start glazing over at talk of MJO, NAO, PNA, PBJ, ABC, FBI....

 

 

If the 11-12th stuff survives for another couple days I’ll start a thread on it.

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It should look kinda ambiguous at day 16. What’s been weird is the crazy anomalies at that range that keep busting. 

You mean like that pig west-based -NAO that was being advertised on the GEFS  run after run after run, and has now evaporated?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, Ji said:

i bet the NAO is something that will just come suddenly without much lead time...like it just start showing up big time 5-6 days out. Not sure when that would be though lol

At this point I doubt we ever get a really good pattern going this winter honestly. Forces are at work along the east coast and they are making sure that 1) we'll never be able to accurately predict long range patterns 2) there will always be something wrong 3) a classic miller A or B will prob have to wait until next year 4) we'll end up getting more snow regardless. 

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...