clskinsfan Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 1 hour ago, Wentzadelphia said: This day 8-9 event has some legs. It doesnt look like it will be a clean event with no 50/50 to keep the low south, however there is good antecedent cold and HP in a great spot. Could certainly see a thump to drizzle type event in the cards if everything works right for us. Its the kind of set up NW of the cities can do pretty decent with. Thump to dry slot or drizzle as it jumps. As you said it is a pretty good air mass and a really nice HP position over the top. A little bit stronger HP and we are all dancing. Still a ways out there though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 Looking at the eps members the majority cluster favors the big snow being north of the PA line with the DC area with fringe totals. There is a significant monitory camp that flush hits DC and some that are south even. I would still like to see the majority shift south as climo and the look on the EPS is a touch north of what I would like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 Weeklies show a -PNA/ -EPO pattern throughout February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: Weeklies show a -PNA/ -EPO pattern throughout February. Shut up Metfan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 3 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Weeklies show a -PNA/ -EPO pattern throughout February. Does it matter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 Southeast ridge still there but not as pronounced on 18z gets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 Just now, nj2va said: Does it matter? He has no clue. He is a parrot. He needs to stay in the NYC sub. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 2 minutes ago, MD Snow said: Southeast ridge still there but not as strong on 18z gets. Shame because SE ridge can be you friend. Most times it’s not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: Shame because SE ridge can be you friend. Most times it’s not. It's almost never my friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: Shame because SE ridge can be you friend. Most times it’s not. Week 3 is a colder version of week 2. Considering the amazing accuracy of week 3 all season we should expect week 3 to end up moderately to significantly different than what it shows today. In other words... I no longer care what the weeklies show anymore. If they're right then no shutout pattern from next weekend through mid march but nothing exciting either. Kinda like what the last 3-4 weeks have been like. But they will be wrong so I expect a continuation of long range analysis that has a new topic to discuss every couple days but no clarity or confidence beyond 7-10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 4, 2019 Author Share Posted February 4, 2019 6 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: It's almost never my friend. isnt there some weenie SE ridge rule that says it can help prevents storm from going out to sea or something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 Just now, Ji said: isnt there some weenie SE ridge rule that says it can help prevents storm from going out to sea or something Probably. All I know is it usually prevents me from getting snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 4, 2019 Author Share Posted February 4, 2019 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Week 3 is a colder version of week 2. Considering the amazing accuracy of week 3 all season we should expect week 3 to end up moderately to significantly different than what it shows today. In other words... I no longer care what the weeklies show anymore. If they're right then no shutout pattern from next weekend through mid march but nothing exciting either. Kinda like what the last 3-4 weeks have been like. But they will be wrong so I expect a continuation of long range analysis that has a new topic to discuss every couple days but no clarity or confidence beyond 7-10 days. i bet the NAO is something that will just come suddenly without much lead time...like it just start showing up big time 5-6 days out. Not sure when that would be though lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 Ambiguity anyone? Probably a good thing at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said: Ambiguity anyone? Probably a good thing at this point. That looks serviceable. Better than I have seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 26 minutes ago, BristowWx said: That looks serviceable. Better than I have seen. It ain't bad..just a weird look overall. A little bit of everything. I see plenty of conflict in the members looking at the means lately. In a few days we might know where the pattern is heading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 4, 2019 Author Share Posted February 4, 2019 4 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Ambiguity anyone? Probably a good thing at this point. its hillarious that people only post the 384 on ensembles lol. But that looks like a nice split flow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacindc Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 I vote for a separate threat thread again. For those of us who want to know if something's coming but who start glazing over at talk of MJO, NAO, PNA, PBJ, ABC, FBI.... 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 9 minutes ago, Ji said: isnt there some weenie SE ridge rule that says it can help prevents storm from going out to sea or something If you have an east based epo ridge and displaced tpv like 2014 2015 or a 1045 high over upstate NY like 2003 then some muted se ridge can help. 99% of the time we are too far south to win with a SE ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 Just now, Ji said: its hillarious that people only post the 384 on ensembles lol. But that looks like a nice split flow It was the first panel that looked half way decent in the LR lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 1 minute ago, jacindc said: I vote for a separate threat thread again. For those of us who want to know if something's coming but who start glazing over at talk of MJO, NAO, PNA, PBJ, ABC, FBI.... Preachn' to the choir here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 1 minute ago, jacindc said: I vote for a separate threat thread again. For those of us who want to know if something's coming but who start glazing over at talk of MJO, NAO, PNA, PBJ, ABC, FBI.... Weenie wonderland thread 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 1 minute ago, jacindc said: I vote for a separate threat thread again. For those of us who want to know if something's coming but who start glazing over at talk of MJO, NAO, PNA, PBJ, ABC, FBI.... If the 11-12th stuff survives for another couple days I’ll start a thread on it. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 8 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Ambiguity anyone? Probably a good thing at this point. It should look kinda ambiguous at day 16. What’s been weird is the crazy anomalies at that range that keep busting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 2 minutes ago, Ji said: its hillarious that people only post the 384 on ensembles lol. But that looks like a nice split flow The 12z GEFS was heading in this direction. That's 2 decent GEFS runs at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 4 minutes ago, jacindc said: I vote for a separate threat thread again. For those of us who want to know if something's coming but who start glazing over at talk of MJO, NAO, PNA, PBJ, ABC, FBI.... If that’s all we’re talking about the answer is no. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It should look kinda ambiguous at day 16. What’s been weird is the crazy anomalies at that range that keep busting. You mean like that pig west-based -NAO that was being advertised on the GEFS run after run after run, and has now evaporated? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 2 minutes ago, Solution Man said: Weenie wonderland thread Yeah but it’s all those indices that define the pattern. Take that away and it’s just a bunch of people complaining about it not snowing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 4, 2019 Share Posted February 4, 2019 12 minutes ago, Ji said: i bet the NAO is something that will just come suddenly without much lead time...like it just start showing up big time 5-6 days out. Not sure when that would be though lol At this point I doubt we ever get a really good pattern going this winter honestly. Forces are at work along the east coast and they are making sure that 1) we'll never be able to accurately predict long range patterns 2) there will always be something wrong 3) a classic miller A or B will prob have to wait until next year 4) we'll end up getting more snow regardless. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 Fv3 has another storm that misses us to the south late next week. 3 storm chances over 6 days lol. Fv3 is the new Canadian lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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