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Stormlover74

February 2019 General Discussion and Observation Thread

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10 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

As a reminder:

598460171_GRAPHIC-2018-19WinterOutlookmapforprecipitation-NOAA.thumb.png.5d5c6634475b43d8e00ec481f7739f29.png

 

665195221_GRAPHIC-2018-19WinterOutlookmapfortemperature-NOAA.thumb.png.d56057b0980a03a420e28554fdd3dba2.png

Dec 1 - Feb 2 anomalies (from Maue's twitter):

Dyg8F3zXQAIlBCP.thumb.jpg.a296551f809d36c3c3d06b4c2b6615ac.jpg

 

We're in that sweet spot between NNE and the southeast where they've done well (northern MA/SNE, that is).  Not as well to the north and south.  They were thinking a more traditional nino pattern I believe.

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Just now, NorthShoreWx said:

We're in that sweet spot between NNE and the southeast where they've done well (northern MA/SNE, that is).  Not as well to the north and south.  They were thinking a more traditional nino pattern I believe.

yeah, you're exactly right.

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Just now, purduewx80 said:

81.4" since Dec 1 and 114.2" since Jul 1. That's +48.2" for the season.

makes sense with a storm track to our N and W.   I'm sure they were below normal the years were we really cashed in....

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3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

look at the run from 2008-2013-it really drops off after that....

Huh, look at that delightful run smack dab during my elementary school years.

screaming internally paul pierce GIF by The Ringer

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7 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

12z models horrid....cutters cutters and more cutters...

If that's true then spring can't get here fast enough. 

I know I'm ready to move past this horror show of a winter.

But then again the models have been garbage outside 3 days. 

If we don't see any more snow the rest of winter then it'll be the worst met winter I've ever experienced.

Yes worse than 01/02 and 11/12 due to the constant teases, the atrocious forecasts, the near normal temps and the well AN precip that was 99.99% rain. At least those winters were nice, dry & warm.

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1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

If that's true then spring can't get here fast enough. 

I know I'm ready to move past this horror show of a winter.

But then again the models have been garbage outside 3 days. 

the problem is that the same general pattern continues-troughs into the west, no blocking, SE ridge, any decent storm is cutting with that...

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5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

12z models horrid....cutters cutters and more cutters...

Even with that though, we would have one nice highlight if we can get a 3 to 6 inch snowfall before the change to sleet and rain with tuesday's storm. GGEM and UKMET look pretty good.

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1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

the problem is that the same general pattern continues-troughs into the west, no blocking, SE ridge, any decent storm is cutting with that...

a favorable MJO does not guarantee snowstorms in the NYC metro ……………...

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28 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Why is everyone not looking at the Mjo?

a favorable MJO does not guarantee snowstorms in the NYC metro ………………

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5 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

a favorable MJO does not guarantee snowstorms in the NYC metro ………………

There's also a lag that takes place. Plus there's still a discrepancy as to when the MJO gets to phase 8 and beyond.

I noticed today's EPS is stalling it right near phase 7/8 for a few days, bad sign if true. Last year the MJO went through favorable phases in mid Feb but we didn't see the effects till March.

The upcoming storm is also occurring before the more favorable MJO phases would settle in. AO will be positive as well.

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The GFS will never get an event like this correct ever at this range.  Based on that high postition and the degree of lift that’s easily a repeat of the November event with probably 3-6 inches even to the coast 

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4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

There's also a lag that takes place. Plus there's still a discrepancy as to when the MJO gets to phase 8 and beyond.

I noticed today's EPS is stalling it right near phase 7/8 for a few days, bad sign if true. Last year the MJO went through favorable phases in mid Feb but we didn't see the effects till March.

I think we had a SSW last Feb too-but as we've seen this year-no guarantee how those play out.   All we got this year was 2 quick arctic outbreaks that came and went

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The 12Z UKMET sand 00Z Euro still want to show some overrunning snows Sunday night into Monday with the initial wave.  The GFS has never had it and the NAM has now dropped it recent runs for the most part  

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12 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Even with that though, we would have one nice highlight if we can get a 3 to 6 inch snowfall before the change to sleet and rain with tuesday's storm. GGEM and UKMET look pretty good.

Why is it a "nice highlight" to get a few inches only to be shortly washed away?  I don't get that even for a snow lover.  That only serves to make travel difficult, snarl traffic and cause transit delays with no lasting effect (although the nice highlight there is no piles of filthy plowed snow for weeks on end).  

Even when I loved snow like the rest of you, when it was a snow to rain scenario, which almost always seemed to be the case growing up, I became disinterested.  That's what made the '78 storm (I think it was then) so much fun - it was supposed to have changed to rain before midnight but in the morning was a great surprise - just sleet leftover with more than a foot of snow on the ground.

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1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I believe NYC needs only 4.4 inches to get out of the top 10 least snowiest winters.  Looks unlikely at this point that won’t happen this month 

Really??  We still have 20 days left in Feb. A lot can happen. 

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14 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The GFS will never get an event like this correct ever at this range.  Based on that high postition and the degree of lift that’s easily a repeat of the November event with probably 3-6 inches even to the coast 

that's what your company is forecasting for this event ??

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11 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

I think we had a SSW last Feb too-but as we've seen this year-no guarantee how those play out.   All we got this year was 2 quick arctic outbreaks that came and went

https://mobile.twitter.com/DrAHButler/status/1092475952557449216

Well all right then.

Sometimes you are humbled by what you'd hoped would be a predictable signal. This #SSW is just refusing to cooperate. That is a crazy swing towards +AO ahead, if it happens

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I AGREE WITH THIS FROM UPTON:

 THE DEPTH OF  
THE COLD AIR WILL ALSO HAVE A ROLE IN THE PRECIPITATION TYPE.  
CURRENTLY THE COASTAL LOW WILL BE TRACKING ALONG THE DELMARVA  
COAST TUESDAY AND THEN TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT.  
WITH THIS TRACK PRECIPITATION BEGINS AS SNOW AND TRANSITIONS TO  
A WINTRY MIX AND THEN RAIN ALONG THE COAST. THE TRANSITION MAY  
EVEN BE AS FAR NORTH AS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN  
COASTAL CONNECTICUT LATER TUESDAY. THE PRECIPITATION THEN  
CHANGES BACK TO SNOW AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY LATER WEDNESDAY. AS  
STATED PREVIOUSLY, THIS ALL DEPENDS ON BOTH THE TRACK OF THE  
COASTAL LOW AND ALSO THE AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND  
ASSOCIATED SURFACE OF OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. ALSO, SYSTEMS IN  
THE EXTENDED HAVE TRENDED WARMER FOR MUCH OF THIS WINTER AND  
THERE ARE SIGNS THAT THIS IS OCCURRING IN THE LATEST MODEL RUNS,  
AS THE 06Z GFS IS A LITTLE WARMER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK  
INTO THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.  

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10 minutes ago, jr461 said:

Why is it a "nice highlight" to get a few inches only to be shortly washed away?  I don't get that even for a snow lover.  That only serves to make travel difficult, snarl traffic and cause transit delays with no lasting effect (although the nice highlight there is no piles of filthy plowed snow for weeks on end).  

Even when I loved snow like the rest of you, when it was a snow to rain scenario, which almost always seemed to be the case growing up, I became disinterested.  That's what made the '78 storm (I think it was then) so much fun - it was supposed to have changed to rain before midnight but in the morning was a great surprise - just sleet leftover with more than a foot of snow on the ground.

You don't understand snow lovers then.  I absolutely love everything about seeing snow falling and accumulating, even if it gets washed away, since I enjoy watching it and being out in it - sure I'd like it to stick around, but that's secondary to me.  And it's even more fun if that snow was well predicted.  

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