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February 2019 General Discussion and Observation Thread


Stormlover74
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4 minutes ago, NittanyWx said:

Nothing written here makes any sense meteorologically.  The baseline assumption that a weak El Nino guarantees a snowy winter...no.   The idea that the SSW overwhelmed an El Nino and somehow caused the MJO to be "all over the place"...no.  Just none of it makes any sense.

Why do you think people went snowy this winter ?

Even majority of forecasters said they went snowy because of the forecasted weak EL Nino.

Go ahead and nitpick by post

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5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

that's our metfan.....

What about the post doesn't make any sense? It's funny how meteorologists differ with each other. A met told me that the SSW was the cause of the MJO to get stuck. do you think Earthlight and Isotherm went cold with alot of snow ?

No one predicted the MJO to get stuck in the favorable phases.

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2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I wonder if we'll actually get some spring weather during the real spring months of March & April, it's been a struggle as of late.

In fact last year Feb & March literally switched places. 

have to hope for a dominant SW flow this spring-keep winds offshore.   That massive snowpack in Eastern Canada worries me for back door hell.

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1 minute ago, Snow88 said:

Nope

What did he say? I remember him canceling winter last week then he went gungho again.

he starts off by saying that the trough coming to the east will push the snow too far south-then he mentions Feb 94, then shows a pic of the SW PAC region being opposite of Feb 94 and that once past the 15th it might not work out for us....very confusing post.  

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If there is truly a group of mets trying to spin the idea that an SSW is causing, somehow, tropical forcing to get stuck off the coast of Vietnam and in the maritime continent (or whatever all over the place means), and that, somehow is overwhelming an El Nino (which was collapsing in the east Pacific in Jan) and all of that is screwing up the snowfall patterns, I'd say they've lost their damn minds.  

That makes no freaking sense.  You're talking about of a correlation of a weaker correlation somehow overwhelming an even weaker correlation to snowfall.    

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55 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Mostly sleet

For once we agree. The mid-levels are torched, it’s not snow, it’s sleet and the UKMET has been overdoing snow/too cold all winter long. I tried warning you yesterday that this was a completely horrible snow setup for the metro area but somehow it got twisted into me saying it because I’m a bad person. This is going to be a mostly rain event come Tuesday, the red flags are all out, warning bells are sounding. The models are not done trending warmer here, mark my words. The theme of this winter, and of the horrible teleconnections and lack of Atlantic blocking. By Sunday and Monday they will be much warmer than what we have today and snow amounts will be dropped even further. Watch the cutting primary, parent low become stronger and stronger and the idea of secondary coastal redevelopment go by the way side

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2 minutes ago, NittanyWx said:

If there is truly a group of mets trying to spin the idea that an SSW is causing, somehow, tropical forcing to get stuck off the coast of Vietnam and in the maritime continent, and that, somehow is overwhelming an El Nino (which was collapsing in the east Pacific in Jan) and all of that is screwing up the snowfall patterns, I'd say they've lost their damn minds.

That makes no freaking sense.  You're talking about of a correlation of a weaker correlation somehow overwhelming an even weaker correlation to snowfall.  

It’s possible that the SSW that was ongoing in the Southern Hemisphere at that same time could have had some sort of negative impact but it’s hard to say 

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Just now, snowman19 said:

For once we agree. The mid-levels are torched, it’s not snow, it’s sleet and the UKMET has been overdoing snow/too cold all winter long. I tried warning you yesterday that this was a completely horrible snow setup for the metro area but somehow it got twisted into me saying it because I’m a bad person. This is going to be a mostly rain event come Tuesday, the red flags are all out, warning bells are sounding. The models are not done trending warmer here, mark my words. The theme of this winter, and of the horrible teleconnections and lack of Atlantic blocking. By Sunday and Monday they will be much warmer than what we have today and snow amounts will be dropped even further. Watch the cutting primary, parent low become stronger and stronger and the idea of secondary coastal redevelopment go by the way side

I just don’t see it.  Not with the positioning of that high.  The January event never remotely looked this good 

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Just now, snowman19 said:

For once we agree. The mid-levels are torched, it’s not snow, it’s sleet and the UKMET has been overdoing snow/too cold all winter long. I tried warning you yesterday that this was a completely horrible snow setup for the metro area but somehow it got twisted into me saying it because I’m a bad person. This is going to be a mostly rain event come Tuesday, the red flags are all out, warning bells are sounding. The models are not done trending warmer here, mark my words. The theme of this winter, and of the horrible teleconnections and lack of Atlantic blocking. By Sunday and Monday they will be much warmer than what we have today and snow amounts will be dropped even further. Watch the cutting primary, parent low become stronger and stronger and the idea of secondary coastal redevelopment go by the way side

yeah I'm not sure how it secondaries with a retreating high up north.  The 1/20 low was supposed to secondary, never happened and it was mostly rain.

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8 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

For once we agree. The mid-levels are torched, it’s not snow, it’s sleet and the UKMET has been overdoing snow/too cold all winter long. I tried warning you yesterday that this was a completely horrible snow setup for the metro area but somehow it got twisted into me saying it because I’m a bad person. This is going to be a mostly rain event come Tuesday, the red flags are all out, warning bells are sounding. The models are not done trending warmer here, mark my words. The theme of this winter, and of the horrible teleconnections and lack of Atlantic blocking. By Sunday and Monday they will be much warmer than what we have today and snow amounts will be dropped even further. Watch the cutting primary, parent low become stronger and stronger and the idea of secondary coastal redevelopment go by the way side

850s torch as the storm low near the lakes come north. We need a secondary and a weaker lakes low.

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26 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

For once we agree. The mid-levels are torched, it’s not snow, it’s sleet and the UKMET has been overdoing snow/too cold all winter long. I tried warning you yesterday that this was a completely horrible snow setup for the metro area but somehow it got twisted into me saying it because I’m a bad person. This is going to be a mostly rain event come Tuesday, the red flags are all out, warning bells are sounding. The models are not done trending warmer here, mark my words. The theme of this winter, and of the horrible teleconnections and lack of Atlantic blocking. By Sunday and Monday they will be much warmer than what we have today and snow amounts will be dropped even further. Watch the cutting primary, parent low become stronger and stronger and the idea of secondary coastal redevelopment go by the way side

There’s no sleet with this system there’ll be snow and rain that’s it I don’t care what the models show I don’t think there’ll be sleet maybe for five minutes as snow is transitioning to rain

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7 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said:

We have a much better source of cold air to work with. This one could actually put up a fight unlike that last storm.

I agree with this

The issue is going to be how long will the CAD hold in place. The longer it does the better. More frozen precip .

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7 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

There’s no sleet with this system there’ll be snow and rain that’s it I don’t care what the models show I don’t think there’ll be sleet maybe for five minutes as snow is transitioning to rain

In general with SWFE type events it’s safe to avoid going too happy with sleet.  There are instances like the February or January 2014 event where we saw sleet for a long period but typically the sleet period is brief.  The tendency for coastal areas here is for it to be primarily snow and rain

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18 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

In general with SWFE type events it’s safe to avoid going too happy with sleet.  There are instances like the February or January 2014 event where we saw sleet for a long period but typically the sleet period is brief.  The tendency for coastal areas here is for it to be primarily snow and rain

Boy did I hate those storms. Inches and inches of sleet. That was some of the most annoying stuff ever to have to move with a shovel. It was like ball bearings rolling around and off the shovel. Too many inches :mapsnow: Then to make it worse the first storm of the next year was all sleet too. 

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