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1/29- 1/30 Storm Threat


40/70 Benchmark
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4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Euro, Another couple tics east and a tic or two colder as well, Most guidance today has ticked that direction.

image.thumb.png.b69dd02f571549ac2aea3f3cf65b491c.png

The warm push isn't overly strong in the boundary layer and we have a nice airmas preceding it with a vestige of high pressure nosing down....that almost always results in a trend of less warming as we get near verification time. It can also result in lowering of QPF which is what we have seen....less warm push means less isentropic lift. 

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The warm push isn't overly strong in the boundary layer and we have a nice airmas preceding it with a vestige of high pressure nosing down....that almost always results in a trend of less warming as we get near verification time. It can also result in lowering of QPF which is what we have seen....less warm push means less isentropic lift. 

Yup, But i will take the offset on qpf if the fluff factor is higher, Doing more with less, Looks up here now, We don't sniff the taint now.

Edit: actually bumped up qpf here from 06z as it shifted some of that heavier qpf out of the foothills SE, Went from .6 to .8 this run.

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

The warm push isn't overly strong in the boundary layer and we have a nice airmas preceding it with a vestige of high pressure nosing down....that almost always results in a trend of less warming as we get near verification time. It can also result in lowering of QPF which is what we have seen....less warm push means less isentropic lift. 

Yeah that front end bullseye that was showing up for here has been slowly fading as the CAD extends a bit further south and the thermal gradient over S NH weakens on the progs.

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4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The warm push isn't overly strong in the boundary layer and we have a nice airmas preceding it with a vestige of high pressure nosing down....that almost always results in a trend of less warming as we get near verification time. It can also result in lowering of QPF which is what we have seen....less warm push means less isentropic lift. 

Colder trend that still results in taking me from 1-2" to nothing, as the gradient tightens 2 miles northwest of me.

Can't make it up. I'll take it, over 1" of slop.

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

You'll prob end up staying mostly snow. This is trending into more of a CF type deal (esp up your way) where the rain stays southeast of it...and you're gonna be NW of the CF most likely. 

I'll look at it tonight. Haven't had much time lately due to some complications with the wife (you and Scott know what I'm referring to), so I'm a bit edgy today.

I'd def. take like 3"+.

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'll look at it tonight. Haven't had much time lately due to some complications with the wife (you and Scott know what I'm referring to), so I'm a bit edgy today.

I'd def. take like 3"+.

CF may actually help you here. Some of the models have some brief enhancement there as the warmer stuff smacks into the CAD in S NH. I think the 00z stuff tonight probably will show it more effectively as we seem to be trending that way each run. 

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1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Yes Sir....we'll take that for sure in this paltry season to date.  

I've reached the point where I'd almost like to see if I can go the whole of meteorological winter without 5". If a big event comes along, awesome, but otherwise I'd almost rather skip it at this point. 

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2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

And now to ORH

At least I never complained about QPF while living on north side of ORH...people would have taken a tire iron to me at the GTGs if I did....esp Ray "you are always just far enough in the right direction"....we will see if MPM has the guts to complain. Lol. 

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