CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Shocking. Can’t wait to get my gas bill after the last few weeks. Rain, cold, rinse, repeat. 8” for the winter here. Full on rat Enjoy my winters of yore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 It’s probably realistically snow to ice to rain . The high doesn’t stay in place .. it slides east. We’ll need to see it hold in place like models showed yesterday, otherwise it’s a mix to cold rain . 5-6 days out lots can happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Enjoy my winters of yore. We were due for a huge slap in the face. We’ve been riding high here for most of the last decade save for 11-12. we average 40 ish for a reason, not 70+ like we’ve been getting most years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Long range looks the same, I mean next week. Long range has been gradient looking. The nao is what’s voodoo. I hear things look really promising after day 10 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Long range looks the same, I mean next week. Long range has been gradient looking. The nao is what’s voodoo. Yea no, its totally gone zonal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: I hear things look really promising after day 10 Those looks haven’t changed in weeks though. It’s why we’ve been cold. This is what happens when you have a -PNA and no blocking. The -nao has been voodoo and will be UFN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Yea no, its totally gone zonal I look at height changes every day. It’s a massive -EPO. That has nkt changed. It’s quite meridional. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: Those looks haven’t changed in weeks though. It’s why we’ve been cold. This is what happens when you have a -PNA and no blocking. The -nao has been voodoo and will be UFN. Right so how the fook is This a very good pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 The problem is it’s nina. Niño and 69 analogs are gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: It’s probably realistically snow to ice to rain . The high doesn’t stay in place .. it slides east. We’ll need to see it hold in place like models showed yesterday, otherwise it’s a mix to cold rain . 5-6 days out lots can happen Yea its flipping around every run. Once we see consistency then we will know either way. Last night was a half inch of rain at 53. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Right so how the fook is This a very good pattern Talk to those 50 miles north. It’s impossible to determine how that sets up. I never said it’s good. But I’d take it over any black hole near AK. Similar look in 13-14 yielded almost 80” for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: The problem is it’s nina. Niño and 69 analogs are gone. The Nina circulation has rendered that long gone for a month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Yea no, its totally gone zonal Huh? The PAC has a massive EPO ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dpb1983 Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 Punxatawney says we spring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FRWEATHA Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Long range looks the same, I mean next week. Long range has been gradient looking. The nao is what’s voodoo. Question for the Mets: Why is it that a -NAO seems to not materialize more often than not when forecasted. Just seems to me that when a -EPO is forecasted the odds are better it will materialize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: Talk to those 50 miles north. It’s impossible to determine how that sets up. I never said it’s good. But I’d take it over any black hole near AK. Similar look in 13-14 yielded almost 80” for me. That’s true it’s serviceable If one likes scoring 3 inches on a snow to rain scenario , praying for overrunning but not for retention i mean I’m 50 miles of you and it overall blows Another 50 miles from that and we’re average , another 100 north of that and they are Epic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: It’s probably realistically snow to ice to rain . The high doesn’t stay in place .. it slides east. We’ll need to see it hold in place like models showed yesterday, otherwise it’s a mix to cold rain . 5-6 days out lots can happen It could easily still be mostly frozen for interior. We'll just have to see how phased the low gets off to the west. Do we get more of a Ukie scenario or a wound up Euro scenario? Either one is totally on the table 5-6 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 2 minutes ago, Dpb1983 said: Punxatawney says we spring So does the Dec-Jan snow total. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Huh? The PAC has a massive EPO ridge. I meant the flow at 200 and 300 is fast compressed and zonal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 2 minutes ago, FRWEATHA said: Question for the Mets: Why is it that a -NAO seems to not materialize more often than not when forecasted. Just seems to me that when a -EPO is forecasted the odds are better it will materialize. John waxed poetically about that the other day, you gotta this super charged La Niña circulation with fast flow and a open Atlantic , the amount of physical change required in the atmosphere to change such a circulation with massive momentum behind it to just plop a -NAO road block in “there”, seems why it’s ghosting . Something like that...found it interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: That’s true it’s serviceable If one likes scoring 3 inches on a snow to rain scenario , praying for overrunning but not for retention i mean I’m 50 miles of you and it overall blows Another 50 miles from that and we’re average , another 100 north of that and they are Epic It could easily be like Feb 2014 dude...massive EPO and zero NAO and meh PNA. I had 40+ inches that month with basically zero melting. You just don't know how it's going to end up. Or it could be like late Jan 94/early Feb 94. Very good for snow but a cutter thrown in there...but still overall skewing cold. Yeah, we could suck too...but it's not the only option. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 We definitely have an EPO to keep us cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 8 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: That’s true it’s serviceable If one likes scoring 3 inches on a snow to rain scenario , praying for overrunning but not for retention i mean I’m 50 miles of you and it overall blows Another 50 miles from that and we’re average , another 100 north of that and they are Epic As the crow flies from you it’s pretty good. You just can’t determine these things 10+ days out. I’ll take that look any day when you compare the H5 composites of true glorified ratters. Trust me, I’m frustrated as anyone. I look forward to this time of year and it’s what gets me through summer. But it’s not a bad look. I’m more frustrated at the -NAO. I’m selling that quicker than Apple stock right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: It could easily be like Feb 2014 dude...massive EPO and zero NAO and meh PNA. I had 40+ inches that month with basically zero melting. You just don't know how it's going to end up. Or it could be like late Jan 94/early Feb 94. Very good for snow but a cutter thrown in there...but still overall skewing cold. Yeah, we could suck too...but it's not the only option. I see a good chance around day 10 for some phasing for perhaps our best storm since Nov. The day 5 storm has trended worse on ENS with the SE ridge poking up. Hopefully it reverses starting today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FRWEATHA Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 14 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: John waxed poetically about that the other day, you gotta this super charged La Niña circulation with fast flow and a open Atlantic , the amount of physical change required in the atmosphere to change such a circulation with massive momentum behind it to just plop a -NAO road block in “there”, seems why it’s ghosting . Something like that...found it interesting Thanks. I see what he was getting at. You know at least in the 1980s there was no internet to keep sucking you back in with long range forecasts that looked like it was turning to a good snow pattern. But this year so far really has reminded me of several winters of that decade as many on here have pointed out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Wasn’t exactly a good trend for next week. Junk Off hours run. We toss. Besides everyone said it was going to trend poopie for a while then trend back good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 1 hour ago, NorEastermass128 said: Anyone else notice how loud the birds are in the morning? Sounds like an early summer morning here the past few days. Strange. I noticed chickadees with their first widespread fee-bee calls this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 2, 2019 Author Share Posted February 2, 2019 7 minutes ago, dendrite said: Strange. I noticed chickadees with their first widespread fee-bee calls this morning. The black capped chickadee? Those have been loud here in the morning. I usually don’t hear them until later March or April though at the earliest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 1 hour ago, Dpb1983 said: Punxatawney says we spring 39% right 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 1 hour ago, FRWEATHA said: Question for the Mets: Why is it that a -NAO seems to not materialize more often than not when forecasted. Just seems to me that when a -EPO is forecasted the odds are better it will materialize. You also have the basic fact that the Pac jet is stronger, and therefore easier for the models to sniff out. Stronger synoptic features are easier for NWP to pin down, and it's why winter verification scores are always better than summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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