Bob Chill Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Just now, WxUSAF said: It’s all snow for us too, no rain. I'm categorically tossing the gfs on this one. It's a tricky upper level setup and I strongly believe the euro has the best handle on it. We can still easily fail but not just cuz the gfs shows it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Just now, SnowGoose69 said: The Canadian seems clueless down the MS Valley and southeast though. It’s way more progressive with the boundary and area of snow across MS-AL-GA more than any other 12Z model and the EPS so it’s less likely to be right downstream I'm hugging the euro/eps. Been locked in with the general progression for multiple runs. I know my yard is on a razor edge win/fail line though. Still on the winning side for now. I expect more wobbles and shifts every cycle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Just now, Bob Chill said: I'm hugging the euro/eps. Been locked in with the general progression for multiple runs. I know my yard is on a razor edge win/fail line though. Still on the winning side for now. I expect more wobbles and shifts every cycle. I think we need to survive one more cycle of the Euro. It’s had tendencies since 2013 and the upgrade to over amp beyond 84-90. Getting the early stages of this inside of that range and it not budging today is good 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Just now, Ji said: lol i mean its not much...but its something Right where we want it...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Just now, SnowGoose69 said: I think we need to survive one more cycle of the Euro. It’s had tendencies since 2013 and the upgrade to over amp beyond 84-90. Getting the early stages of this inside of that range and it not budging today is good Agreed. The trickiest part is a narrow swath of accum snow. Yea, it could be heavy or even intense for a short time but being so narrow it takes a very small shift to celebrate or pop xanax. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 26, 2019 Author Share Posted January 26, 2019 Just now, Bob Chill said: Agreed. The trickiest part is a narrow swath of accum snow. Yea, it could be heavy or even intense for a short time but being so narrow it takes a very small shift to celebrate or pop xanax. it could be one of things that modeled really well 5 minutes before the storm and it busts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Just now, Ji said: it could be one of things that modeled really well 5 minutes before the storm and it busts Don't disagree there. One of those things where we may still be guessing 12 hours before onset. Don't automatically write off later in the week. Many solutions are still possible. Doesn't seem probable right now on the ensembles. Still pretty far out in time though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Fv3 pops a low on the front. Euro'ish 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 12 minutes ago, Ji said: lol i mean its not much...but its something Is closer to the coast than 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 16 minutes ago, Ji said: very disheartning what happened to our d6/7 coastal although the GFS improved a tad We had one fantasy run of the ICON, man...Nothing "happened" to the coastal. It's only just showing up on the GFS again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Kinda like the look on 2/7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 That vortex or ns or whatever it is, is further south on 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 The UKMET through 72 seems like it’s digging pretty good in the western Gulf states 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Fv3 is actually a pretty good hit. Widespread .25 - .50 qpf as snow. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 20 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Agreed. The trickiest part is a narrow swath of accum snow. Yea, it could be heavy or even intense for a short time but being so narrow it takes a very small shift to celebrate or pop xanax. this is the thing that has me holding back...I am actually interested in the idea of a quick dynamic event, even if only a couple inches, followed by a true arctic front. But the areal coverage is so narrow that I am waiting to get invested until we are within range where shifts of that small zone is lessened. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 23 minutes ago, Ji said: it could be one of things that modeled really well 5 minutes before the storm and it busts 21 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Don't disagree there. One of those things where we may still be guessing 12 hours before onset. Don't automatically write off later in the week. Many solutions are still possible. Doesn't seem probable right now on the ensembles. Still pretty far out in time though. one thing that could help move this towards a more stable and slightly more widespread event would be a trend towards a healthier wave along the front. The more amplified that wave becomes (assuming it takes a favorable track) it will hold the front up more and increase moisture transport across the cold boundary which would increase the coverage and intensity of the snowfall some. We obviously would still need that wave to take a favorable track but the stronger that feature the more likely the guidance will be able to pick up on its general track as well...so all in all a trend towards a stronger wave would help decrease the chances of a last minute bust. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Got it. Thanks The trough does a pretty interesting trajectory. Excited to see how it unfolds Based off guidance and optimism I still set the bar at a quick inch maybe 2" if we're lucky! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 43 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: If you think the models are overdoing suppression in the med range then the potential looks pretty good for now. Now the question is how could it turn up the coast? Doesn't seem like that can happen unless it phases, right? (After last month, I'm not sure we wanna rely on that southern piece trending north, lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Just some minor changes at H5 on the gefs for next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 24 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Fv3 is actually a pretty good hit. Widespread .25 - .50 qpf as snow. Snow map on TT looks a lot like the Euro. Widespread 3-4" amounts through the area. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 7 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Now the question is how could it turn up the coast? Doesn't seem like that can happen unless it phases, right? (After last month, I'm not sure we wanna rely on that southern piece trending north, lol) It might not have to. Seeing some signs of a northern stream shortwave riding through so it could pull up moisture and overrunning. The southern shortwave could send the same thing our way with simple height rises. Of course turning the corner is the optimal way. Not going to pick apart details because it's a waste of time. Just something worth watching. That's all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Can we break out the Tuesday night deal into a separate thread? I can't even tell which storm we are talking about at times in here. I thought the way we did things before was better to be honest. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 4 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Snow map on TT looks a lot like the Euro. Widespread 3-4" amounts through the area. Don't have access to ukie qpf beyond 72 but this looks pretty good to me... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Don't have access to ukie qpf beyond 72 but this looks pretty good to me... It’s not nearly as amped down in the Gulf as the 00Z Euro or 06Z Euro at 84 or 78 respectively but it’s better than the GFS by a bit and worlds better than the CMC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: It’s not nearly as amped down in the Gulf as the 00Z Euro or 06Z Euro at 84 or 78 respectively but it’s better than the GFS by a bit and worlds better than the CMC This one has the feel of coming down to the wire before full consensus. One of those deals where models finally converge once the southern tail of the front is figured out in real time. Euro is dead set on a legit wave rippling along but the euro also likes to go amp happy in the med range. If the euro holds strong through 0z Monday run then I would start hugging it and tossing everything else unless other ops look the same. One thing the euro is good at in the short range is getting pieces of upper level energy right. Fv3 was a clear step towards the euro at least. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 NA101, can u post the 78h qpf panel as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 Just now, Bob Chill said: NA101, can u post the 78h qpf panel as well? Didn't post it because it kinda sucks, lol. 84h is the money panel for you guys. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 It’s very odd how beyond 48-60 this winter the Euro and UKMET haven’t really a greed much at all. The UKMET has definitely had a progressive tendency 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: Didn't post it because it kinda sucks, lol. 84h is the money panel for you guys. No worries. Just wanted to see the progression. Based on 72-84h it looks more strung out before the wave zips north. Very delicate setup no matter how you slice it. We're under 4 days and still in the game. A couple inches of snow on the ground before the front clears would transform our area into deep winter conditions for 5+ days. Much better than a couple inches with a warm front. Lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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