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MAG5035

Central PA - Jan/Feb 2019 Obs and Discussion

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2 minutes ago, bubbler86 said:

Quick ob...light rain and 34 in Gettysburg 

Same here west shore Harrisburg.  Based on surface dew points, as the air near the surface cools I imagine sleet will at least mix in if not take over fairly quickly for the next few hours

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Well I am glad, at least for the mood of the forum and my own mood, that the conveyor belt of moisture from the gulf idea is back on the table.  If you look at the Euro and Nam you will see people who get under this will be the winners if today's prog's come to fruition.  I think there would be some 1 foot measurements in Central PA.   The precip fills into the south eventually but those under the WAA firehose will already be into WSW criteria before the fill in happens.   A lot of the positives today are based on the lack of phasing/amping up of the low in the mid west.

image.png.e6701ceed452866c53be3759fc4db8cd.png

 

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17 minutes ago, bubbler86 said:

Well I am glad, at least for the mood of the forum and my own mood, that the conveyor belt of moisture from the gulf idea is back on the table.  If you look at the Euro and Nam you will see people who get under this will be the winners if today's prog's come to fruition.  I think there would be some 1 foot measurements in Central PA.   The precip fills into the south eventually but those under the WAA firehose will already be into WSW criteria before the fill in happens.   A lot of the positives today are based on the lack of phasing/amping up of the low in the mid west.

image.png.e6701ceed452866c53be3759fc4db8cd.png

 

Is this the Wednesday storm?

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6 minutes ago, SnowPlowGuy88 said:

Uggghh. Man these mix storm really suck when your clearing 250 driveways and sidewalks at one HOA 

We are trending to a mostly snow in today's models.   If we can avoid the low winding up too much to our west I think Cad is going to make this the biggest snow of the season.

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11 minutes ago, bubbler86 said:

We are trending to a mostly snow in today's models.   If we can avoid the low winding up too much to our west I think Cad is going to make this the biggest snow of the season.

Will be tough to beat November’s 8.8” storm here but please god let’s do it.

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5 minutes ago, canderson said:

Will be tough to beat November’s 8.8” storm here but please god let’s do it.

Yea I should have said biggest storm of the season but the setup looked like 8+ inches several days ago and I think we are still in play for that.  Will need to be under the convergence of the WAA and the conveyor belt bringing in extras from the west. 

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Yea I should have said biggest storm of the season but the setup looked like 8+ inches several days ago and I think we are still in play for that.  Will need to be under the convergence of the WAA and the conveyor belt bringing in extras from the west. 

Looking good for that right now (at least per Euro).

Starting to think most precip will be done before flip to sleet/frz rain, this time.


.

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Another map...hopefully it is not annoying anyone but this is the best chance for a foot this season.  18Z EC showing snow depth map of 8-12" over Central PA...a bit less in eastern LSV.

image.png.acfadb6b676af5a7a811356acbd02390.png

 

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Didn't leave State College until 5:15pm. By that time the precip had started. It was a mix until I got up to I-80, then it was all snow. The interstate completely caved by the time I got to the Lock Haven exit, and it was snow covered all the way to Milton. Fun times...

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46 minutes ago, bubbler86 said:

Another map...hopefully it is not annoying anyone but this is the best chance for a foot this season.  18Z EC showing snow depth map of 8-12" over Central PA...a bit less in eastern LSV.

image.png.acfadb6b676af5a7a811356acbd02390.png

 

This is never ever annoying... please keep them coming !

I’ll post some later too !

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1 hour ago, canderson said:

GFS appears to be a VA special. 

Precip just doesn’t push into PA as much as NAM has been doing.  It appears as if around 750mb will be the layer to watch with the warm air push aloft according to most of the models Wednesday afternoon.  Models including afternoon and early evening runs of HRRR today have not handled this system tonight well at all across much of PA.  The precip has ended several hours early with not much falling at all for a number of locations it seems.

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With a quick look - 0z Euro looks to be fairly similar to 12z with a slightly quicker northward push of warmer air Wednesday afternoon so just south of Mason Dixon Line sees earlier changeover.  Unfortunately what I have access to I cannot post maps so someone else will need to as usual.

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33 minutes ago, djr5001 said:

Precip just doesn’t push into PA as much as NAM has been doing.  It appears as if around 750mb will be the layer to watch with the warm air push aloft according to most of the models Wednesday afternoon.  Models including afternoon and early evening runs of HRRR today have not handled this system tonight well at all across much of PA.  The precip has ended several hours early with not much falling at all for a number of locations it seems.

This is another good CAD setup like last week with the difference being the high pressure center is oriented much further south, centered in southern NY and sliding east. This Gulf moisture charged wave is essentially attacking the high directly. So the QPF being further south overall makes sense. It's an interesting setup for sure. You look at a 500mb map and you wouldn't think anywhere in the northeast had the slightest a chance at a winter weather event much less the Mid-Atlantic region. A pretty classic example of life at 500mb not always telling the story of what happens at the level we live on. Although, even looking at 700 and 850 heights wouldn't look really favorable for us at first glance as well. Closed low features at these levels are all the way in the upper midwest when event is impacting. Pretty distinct ridging aloft at 850mb oriented on an axis from New England back through the lakes to the upper Midwest. This feature would appear to help delay/mitigate robust WAA aloft for a time, likely aiding a front end snow threat. Transition to wintry mess likely ensues when WAA aloft eventually does invade the column. 850 and 700mb levels both warm above freezing while 925mb and surface cold are pretty firm the majority of the event, especially central counties. 

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10 hours ago, bubbler86 said:

Another map...hopefully it is not annoying anyone but this is the best chance for a foot this season.  18Z EC showing snow depth map of 8-12" over Central PA...a bit less in eastern LSV.

image.png.acfadb6b676af5a7a811356acbd02390.png

 

post em if ya got em. You're not annoying me. 

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