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Central PA - Jan/Feb 2019 Obs and Discussion


MAG5035
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39 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Not sure how anyone could get 6-8 from a fropa. There is a secondary pop and that’s what bumps up totals for the east (including me as I’m now at 4-6”). It’s why these deals never get me giddy. Will be happy with whatever comes though. I’m still close to the fail line for that too. 

yep. that is why I am so skeptical of a frontal passage snow. There never seems to be a secondary on them or close to being a producer. Not snowing here now, have a trace of snow. Welcome Bitter air for a couple of days. 

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3 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

little meso war going on.... dont ya think? 

12Z NAM's just cancelled my snow while some still have us doing well enough down here.  CTP says east of river is soild advisory, so I'm pulling for them to be right for MBY.  

 

Some of it appears to be temp related as much as qpf.  NAM has it getting in the/near the 40's in Lancaster county. 

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14 minutes ago, paweather said:

and hope active after that. Normal temps these months it can still snow. 

absolutely.  

Truth is that in this pattern we are going to need to ride the line, as the pac is just muckin stuff up.  If its all NS derived events, we'd get clipped but theyd be snofart kinda snows, and not juicy.  Boundary is where the action will be.  Verbatim I'm in trouble down here but hope the northern 1/2 of the state would have a little better chance with the zonal look.  Thats as far as I'm willing to delve in right now, as there is so much volatility right now.  MJO gets towards 8 or -AO and it may be workable for sure.  

 

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Just now, pasnownut said:

absolutely.  

Truth is that in this pattern we are going to need to ride the line, as the pac is just muckin stuff up.  If its all NS derived events, we'd get clipped but theyd be snofart kinda snows, and not juicy.  Boundary is where the action will be.  Verbatim I'm in trouble down here but hope the northern 1/2 of the state would have a little better chance with the zonal look.  Thats as far as I'm willing to delve in right now, as there is so much volatility right now.  MJO gets towards 8 or -AO and it may be workable for sure.  

 

yep. I would rather play the gamble game with more southern activity for us and hope we get a good track to the east for snow or even a start as snow to ice/rain back to snow. Feb is a key month for us. 

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11 minutes ago, canderson said:

I'm realllllllly curious if MDT breaks 0 tomorrow night. If winds die off quickly I think they'll have a good chance. 

Youll need snow cover IMO.  Winds likely will be too high that w/out radiational cooling, You'd likely flirt w/ it.  regardless, its gonna be plenty cold enough.

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7 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

What are odds NWS stays literal with chill advisory instead of warning...in this dangerous cold why not just get attention and do two day warning.

Every time I read one of these kinds of posts, I honestly SMH as I'm not sure why some freak out at what any organization says...or doesnt.  Cracks me up.

If you have 1/3 of a functioning brain and know that its going to be less than 20 deg. with howling winds....do you REALLY need to be told to take precautions??

It just makes me lol when people need to be told everything in life.  I do NOT care what advancements we have...you still need common sense no matter.  And if our society wants to become dependent on what others tell them.....that's a scary direction to head in.  NOT looking for a debate....JMO's, but logic is something we all need to get along in life...or survive the cold.

 

Thats not an attack on you btw, its just something I struggle w/.  

 

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2 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Every time I read one of these kinds of posts, I honestly SMH as I'm not sure why some freak out at what any organization says...or doesnt.  Cracks me up.

If you have 1/3 of a functioning brain and know that its going to be less than 20 deg. with howling winds....do you REALLY need to be told to take precautions??

It just makes me lol when people need to be told everything in life.  I do NOT care what advancements we have...you still need common sense no matter.  And if our society wants to become dependent on what others tell them.....that's a scary direction to head in.  NOT looking for a debate....JMO's, but logic is something we all need to get along in life...or survive the cold.

 

Thats not an attack on you btw, its just something I struggle w/.  

 

I'm with you, and am about 10 minutes away from you in New Holland.  Hoping to get a few inches today.

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For our region a wind chill advisory means wind chills will be between -5 to -15 F for a sustained period of time.  A wind chill warning means wind chills will drop to anything below -15F, usually -15 to -25F for a sustained period.

I've been following the progression of the core of the arctic air, which right now is crossing from Canada into northern Minnesota.  The GFS has been forecasting 850 temps to be -39C as that core traverses southeast through the state.  -39C is very close to -40F which is pretty dramatic cold.  In their forecast discussion the Mets were saying they haven't seen this kind of cold come down out of Canada in many years.  It's already down to -15F at MSP and they are forecast to drop to a low of -30F both tonight and tomorrow night.  Tonight, however, there will be gusty winds and their wind chills are expected to range from -45 to -65F !  YIKES.

Our lows tomorrow night will be with wind so most of us will have similar temps at similar elevations.  If we can keep skies clear long enough Thursday night, winds should go calm and I would think we'd have a shot at lower lows.  In my grid I've got a forecast low of -1 tomorrow night but +4 Thursday night.

Last thought...CTP is pretty bullish on snow squalls late tomorrow morning with heavy snow mentioned and a 50% likelihood.  Tomorrow might turn out to be more exciting than today.  I love snow squalls even though they rarely last more than 5-10 minutes.

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13 minutes ago, Porsche said:

I'm with you, and am about 10 minutes away from you in New Holland.  Hoping to get a few inches today.

Good luck bud.  Nice to see you back...i've seen you lurking.  Get in here and muck it up with us.

I've got several clients in NH.  I get there often.  Like your Chinese buffet behind the Insurance place.  Yummy.

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24 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Every time I read one of these kinds of posts, I honestly SMH as I'm not sure why some freak out at what any organization says...or doesnt.  Cracks me up.

If you have 1/3 of a functioning brain and know that its going to be less than 20 deg. with howling winds....do you REALLY need to be told to take precautions??

It just makes me lol when people need to be told everything in life.  I do NOT care what advancements we have...you still need common sense no matter.  And if our society wants to become dependent on what others tell them.....that's a scary direction to head in.  NOT looking for a debate....JMO's, but logic is something we all need to get along in life...or survive the cold.

 

Thats not an attack on you btw, its just something I struggle w/.  

 

I agree with you 100%. To me wind chills of Zero or 25 below zero are no different. It's going to be cold. Bundle up or don't go out.

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4 minutes ago, north pgh said:

I agree with you 100%. To me wind chills of Zero or 25 below zero are no different. It's going to be cold. Bundle up or don't go out.

Just not sure why/how someone could blame someone for not telling them to bundle up.  It really baffles my mind....really.

and in truth IF i hear an advisory vs a warning, its NO different of an approach to 99% of us. 

If I'm wrong, someone tell me to shut up.  Wouldnt be the first time. :P

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2 minutes ago, pawatch said:

I'm suing someone because I just wore my shorts and sandals today and almost got frostbite. They didn't even have and advisory.  :facepalm:

Just a few flurries here, giving the coffee pot a workout today.

Enjoy your snow today!!

Dude just on other side of town we have mod snow and roads covered.

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21 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

People are stupid and unfortunately stupid people have kids...warning is stronger than advisory and if it gets through to one stupid person that a kid can die of exposure on walk to school with slip or incident a life was saved.

Guess I just question that we live in an era where one needs to be told EVERYTHING. 

Its one thing to get information out about the cold, but another to worry about adv vs warning. 

The first part makes perfect sense....the second part makes little to me.  Hope you see my point.

onward.......its snowing.

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