pasnownut Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 Was away for the weekend (beach.....lol....ugh...lol...happy wife.....blah blah blah.) Nice little break from the dumpster fire of late. My sanity needed it. Looks nice and I sure hope it verifies. Not paying much attention beyond this week as its been such a yo yo....I'm too dizzy to wanna look. I'll just enjoy my 1 week winter and see where we go from there. Glad to see you guys in CTP scored again overnight. Maps showed it, but I thought 1 r 2"....not 4. Gotta love an overachiever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 The 12z EPS & Control Agee with the Euro Op for our Tuesday snow ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 Mount Holly is rather busllish wrt to the Poconos. One county and about 5 miles east of me and watches are hoisted. Lets see what CTP does... Quote URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 237 PM EST Sun Jan 27 2019 Carbon-Monroe- Including the cities of Jim Thorpe and Stroudsburg 237 PM EST Sun Jan 27 2019 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 8 inches possible. * WHERE...Carbon and Monroe counties. * WHEN...From 7AM Tuesday through 7AM Wednesday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult on icy and snow covered roads. The hazardous conditions could impact the Tuesday morning and evening commutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 The 18z High Res 3k NAM & 18z GFS continue to look good for our snow ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 After last weekend, they aren't going to make a call until they absolutely have to, and it'll be WWA at best, SWS is most likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 12 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: After last weekend, they aren't going to make a call until they absolutely have to, and it'll be WWA at best, SWS is most likely. Considering the mention rain in my forecast Tuesday you probably are correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 If they play it too conservative, there could be a disaster on the roads Tuesday evening just like back in November. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 26 minutes ago, canderson said: Do they have all their snowfall forecast maps for each storm archived somewhere that can be accessed online? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 10 minutes ago, Jns2183 said: Do they have all their snowfall forecast maps for each storm archived somewhere that can be accessed online? I don’t believe so - it’s a static URL. Computer generated I’m certain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 28, 2019 Author Share Posted January 28, 2019 CTP's map might be a tad conservative back in the central counties when factoring in their own probability products they have plus WPC's products which seem to bullseye UNV/IPT. The SREF's are pretty charged up too. Clearly WPC (as of their late afternoon issuance) favors a more NW axis to this but models have seemed to tend towards the east with the potential enhanced snowfall that would represent an axis of say, 4+. Esp the Euro, which had favored this type of scenario but really shifted east the last couple runs, progressing the front and not really popping the coastal low until to the NE with a less robust shortwave. It's a more progressive look that even alot of the Sus Valley was almost too far west for. I see this event evolving primarily around a several hour period of snow associated with a nice ribbon of forcing along the frontal boundary ushering in the arctic air. Embedded in that could be a intense band of snow with the actual front. The far southern tier may initially be a bit warm at the surface with some mixing at the beginning or snow that may not accumulate immediately. Snow ratios will progressively get better as the arctic air blasts into the column. So with that alone I would foresee a forum-wide 1-3" with scattered higher amounts as the base minimum. Now a negatively tilted trough with some coastal development could linger this enhanced area of precip over a given area, thus the threat for perhaps warning level snows. I would expect patchy upslope snows to linger in the interior counties for a time with the arctic air coming in. Primary worry is the precip hole being portrayed on models in the south central counties. Parent low goes to the lakes with secondary coastal development so some westerly downslope component could be in play, although I think the good dynamics/forcing will mitigate that to a degree. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Too busy to make a map so using my same screen name First Call lineup from before...for Tuesday snow. Worried about surface temps though especially in Lancaster. Mag, 2001KX, Bubbler, Carlisle, Canderson, Atomic, Sauss -2-4" Nut, Itstrainingtime, Daxx, Cashtown, Voyager-3-5" wmsptwx-4-6"" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flatheadsickness Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 more like a drought stricken July in here than late January with snow less than 24 out. Maybe we can be overachievers like Atom and Nanny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 The 0z Euro & EPS are still looking good for our Tuesday snow . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 I blew Nannys hips out last night. That has to be some kind of good sign, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 11 hours ago, MAG5035 said: CTP's map might be a tad conservative back in the central counties when factoring in their own probability products they have plus WPC's products which seem to bullseye UNV/IPT. The SREF's are pretty charged up too. Clearly WPC (as of their late afternoon issuance) favors a more NW axis to this but models have seemed to tend towards the east with the potential enhanced snowfall that would represent an axis of say, 4+. Esp the Euro, which had favored this type of scenario but really shifted east the last couple runs, progressing the front and not really popping the coastal low until to the NE with a less robust shortwave. It's a more progressive look that even alot of the Sus Valley was almost too far west for. I see this event evolving primarily around a several hour period of snow associated with a nice ribbon of forcing along the frontal boundary ushering in the arctic air. Embedded in that could be a intense band of snow with the actual front. The far southern tier may initially be a bit warm at the surface with some mixing at the beginning or snow that may not accumulate immediately. Snow ratios will progressively get better as the arctic air blasts into the column. So with that alone I would foresee a forum-wide 1-3" with scattered higher amounts as the base minimum. Now a negatively tilted trough with some coastal development could linger this enhanced area of precip over a given area, thus the threat for perhaps warning level snows. I would expect patchy upslope snows to linger in the interior counties for a time with the arctic air coming in. Primary worry is the precip hole being portrayed on models in the south central counties. Parent low goes to the lakes with secondary coastal development so some westerly downslope component could be in play, although I think the good dynamics/forcing will mitigate that to a degree. Thanks for the write up Mag! Wasn't quite sure what to think with the models trending East yesterday. 11 degrees here this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Every hour that goes by makes this look like more and more of an Eastern PA threat as to breaking 2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Latest nam is sub advisory most of PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Looking like basically another small 1.5" or so nuisance snow for MDT given 6z and NAM 12z trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 3 minutes ago, canderson said: Looking like basically another small 1.5" or so nuisance snow for MDT given 6z and NAM 12z trends. and most welcome for those of us that have had 2" since mid November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Any snow is a win, 2 or up I gladly will take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 18 minutes ago, bubbler86 said: Every hour that goes by makes this look like more and more of an Eastern PA threat as to breaking 2". yeah not sure who to believe as probabilistic maps still have 3-4 deep into ctp w/ Pocono and surrounding as jackpot. I've always been too far SE for this one and never bought in as this setup screams heartbreak for me, as I have no lift down here....just downsloping that is a thief in the night....or day. I'll take whatever I can get and hope that we get a little more before we warm next week. I did peek and uber long range looks transient warm with potentially better blocking in the ever too elusive NAO domain space. Still time for back points but we need a full on reversal quick as we are mid second period and need to break this kids meteo full nelson. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 2 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: Any snow is a win, 2 or up I gladly will take. Yup! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 2 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: Any snow is a win, 2 or up I gladly will take. heck you should have a nice snowpack forming. Just north of you got 4-5 yesterday. Many reports on my snowmobile pages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Looks like the NAM suite wants to shift everything south and east. The Pocono jackpot appears now to be a Lehigh Valley jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 3 minutes ago, Voyager said: Looks like the NAM suite wants to shift everything south and east. The Pocono jackpot appears now to be a Lehigh Valley jackpot. yep. second band seems to be an ABE special. I'd still think Poconos still do alright w/ lift. I'd bet 4-6 in and @ that area will be common. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 17 minutes ago, pasnownut said: heck you should have a nice snowpack forming. Just north of you got 4-5 yesterday. Many reports on my snowmobile pages. It all downsloped we had no accums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 14 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: It all downsloped we had no accums. bummer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Just now, pasnownut said: bummer Lol it's kinda a known deal up here....we take synoptic storms to get accum. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 45 minutes ago, pasnownut said: heck you should have a nice snowpack forming. Just north of you got 4-5 yesterday. Many reports on my snowmobile pages. You know Nut if you would just move up north for the winter a lot of your problems would be solved. picture for yesterday's warning you mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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