Central PA - Jan/Feb 2019 Obs and Discussion

[Voyager]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

wow 60! that was unexpected

Yes it is. Guidance only took me to the low 50's this morning. The fog, as you can imagine, is pretty bad up here.

[LibertyBell]

9 minutes ago, Voyager said:

Yes it is. Guidance only took me to the low 50's this morning. The fog, as you can imagine, is pretty bad up here.

that always seems to happen with any kind of snow or ice pack and up on the mountain you can have clear skies with an inversion layer below so it looks like the mountain is floating over the fog and clouds lol.

I remember seeing the Perseid meteor shower in and out of the fog one year, the ones that made it through were spectacular!

 

[Bubbler86]

10 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

 

The records start in 1941, I think I may go all the way back to start in the next few weeks. Also, as I mentioned before, up until 9/30/91 the observations were taken at Capital City Airport in New Cumberland. They are only about 5 miles apart, but has yearly precipitation totals consistently lower than KMDT at Harrisburg Airport. I think it was the last 18/20 or 19/20 years. Some years it was >10% lower, which I found amazing for such a short distance. I did notice most of the discrepancy occurred in the summer months I believe, but not all.

For a couple years after KMDT moved no observations were taken at KCXY. I’m going to try to compare observations for snow events where we have overlapping data.


. Pro

 

Thanks.  Although the spike in 15+" snows starts exactly when it went from CXY to MDT I feel confident the station change is not the sole reason for this as MDT is notoriously stingy with reporting totals. 

[Jns2183]

Thanks.  Although the spike in 15+" snows starts exactly when it went from CXY to MDT I feel confident the station change is not the sole reason for this as MDT is notoriously stingy with reporting totals. 

I don’t believe there have been any big storms in memory where the difference between the two stations has been significant. Do you know when the current measuring procedures with the snowboard became standard operating procedure? I could see that making a difference possibly. Say they just measured once a day or something. Although not full proof by any means, I probably could compare precipitation totals to snow totals to get a ratio for larger events in the past, along with back to back events too see if anything stands out.


. Pro

[Voyager]

44 minutes ago, Voyager said:

I've only been in Tamaqua since 2001, so I don't know about times prior. Since my arrival, -10 and 101 were my records. Rainfall, of course came this year. The snowpack is taking a hit now with the heavy rain and a temp that is sitting at 59 degrees (we briefly hit 60 a little while ago) so I don't know how much will be left when all is said and done. today.

I stand corrected. I guess the temperature sensor is flaking out in my station. I looked at the old mercury thermometer on my back porch and it's only 50 here. I have an 8 year old Accu-Rite station, but I guess it's near the end of it's life.

[pawatch]

23 minutes ago, Voyager said:

I stand corrected. I guess the temperature sensor is flaking out in my station. I looked at the old mercury thermometer on my back porch and it's only 50 here. I have an 8 year old Accu-Rite station, but I guess it's near the end of it's life.

Probably just flooded 

[Bubbler86]

30 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

 

I don’t believe there have been any big storms in memory where the difference between the two stations has been significant. Do you know when the current measuring procedures with the snowboard became standard operating procedure? I could see that making a difference possibly. Say they just measured once a day or something. Although not full proof by any means, I probably could compare precipitation totals to snow totals to get a ratio for larger events in the past, along with back to back events too see if anything stands out.


. Pro

 

I am a little tied up today but did just do some searching for snowboard history but did not find much (the sport of snowboarding was invented in 1965 though)!.  I thought I remembered people using snowboards in the 80's.  I was too young to know stuff like that prior.  

[CarlislePaWx]

Temp here currently 39.4.  Cold(er) air has remained locked in as the warmest it got was yesterday afternoon before it rained at 43.  Only recorded a trace of rain through midnight yesterday.  Today have recorded 0.70" of rain since midnight.  Rain has put a pretty good dent in snowpack.  It's very patchy now with some bare spots and some snowpacked spots remaining.  Wonder if we'll see a change to snow behind the front as the gfs has advertised for many runs?  Expecting that early afternoon if it's going to happen.

[canderson]

Pretty cool it was 6 degrees Monday and Tuesday and we've had like an inch of rain Wednesday night into Thursday.

I feel like I live in Washington, DC.

[Wmsptwx]

Flooding ongoing in Sullivan and E. Lycoming county.

[anotherman]

We need to get our mojo back.  I love this old video.  Here's hoping we can get another big one soon....

 

[Bubbler86]

Well this would put a dent into all these positive departures from the last 2 days

 

 

[canderson]

20 minutes ago, bubbler86 said:

Well this would put a dent into all these positive departures from the last 2 days

 

 

Horst was barking about this upcoming polar vortex this morning on Twitter. It looks - cold!

[Bubbler86]

20 minutes ago, canderson said:

Horst was barking about this upcoming polar vortex this morning on Twitter. It looks - cold!

Just need the harbinger of the cold to round the bend further south so this is not a green freeze.  If we can get that shortwave under us it could be a decent snow. 

[sauss06]

i wouldn't mind that temperature, if we could get some damn precip to accompany it. What the hell do we have to do round these here parts to get liquid and cold at the same time?  

[Bubbler86]

4 hours ago, Jns2183 said:

 

I don’t believe there have been any big storms in memory where the difference between the two stations has been significant. Do you know when the current measuring procedures with the snowboard became standard operating procedure? I could see that making a difference possibly. Say they just measured once a day or something. Although not full proof by any means, I probably could compare precipitation totals to snow totals to get a ratio for larger events in the past, along with back to back events too see if anything stands out.


. Pro

 

Went back to this and found the answer.  1950's.  This article discusses this topic but questions older measurements from the 70's and back at climate reporting sites and 50's and back at airports. 

__

Official measurement of snowfall these days uses a flat, usually white, surface called a snowboard (which pre-dates the popular winter sport equipment of the same name). The snowboard depth measurement is done ideally every 6 hours, but not more frequently, and the snow is cleared after each measurement. At the end of the snowfall, all of the measurements are added up for the storm total. NOAA’s cooperative climate observers and thousands of volunteers with the Community Collaborative Rain, Hail and Snow (CoCoRaHS), a nationwide observer network, are trained in this method. This practice first became standard at airports starting in the 1950s, but later at other official climate reporting sites, such as Manhattan’s Central Park, where 6-hourly measurements did not become routine until the 1990s.

https://news.ucar.edu/14009/snowfall-measurement-flaky-history

 

 

[canderson]

@Jns2183 thank you for the data. If you could do a Google Drive doc of HBG snow records that'd be amazing (and since @sauss06 lost his he could use it too).

[Wmsptwx]

21 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

i wouldn't mind that temperature, if we could get some damn precip to accompany it. What the hell do we have to do round these here parts to get liquid and cold at the same time?  

Mystery for the ages lately lol.

[pawatch]

NWS for the Wiliamsport next week:

Tuesday Rain, snow, freezing rain, and sleet likely. Cloudy, with a high near 39. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

We are having trouble getting out of this pattern.

 

[sauss06]

any local Harrisburg peeps with a rain gauge? 

the cricks are getting high

[canderson]

2 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

any local Harrisburg peeps with a rain gauge? 

the cricks are getting high

Mine broke - I think a groundhog knocked it over or something.

[pasnownut]

1 hour ago, bubbler86 said:

Just need the harbinger of the cold to round the bend further south so this is not a green freeze.  If we can get that shortwave under us it could be a decent snow. 

Tuesday buddy. 

[Bubbler86]

58 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Tuesday buddy. 

It is going to need some more shovels to dig under us right now. :-)

[pasnownut]

6 minutes ago, bubbler86 said:

It is going to need some more shovels to dig under us right now. :-)

It will. Plenty of time. Clippers don’t HAVE to be under but yeah best qpf is typically 50-75 north of LP

[Bubbler86]

5 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

It will. Plenty of time. Clippers don’t HAVE to be under but yeah best qpf is typically 50-75 north of LP

Euro has us getting a warning level event with a trailer it appears.  Not going to bite on that at this point.  Waiting for snows on the back of a front is pain staking and usually fruitless.  Air temp is marginal which is why I want it under us...no south or southwest wind. 

[Voyager]

2 hours ago, sauss06 said:

any local Harrisburg peeps with a rain gauge? 

the cricks are getting high

Don't know about the Harrisburg area, by it looks like I'll finish up at around 1.80" in my backyard (1.78" currently) with perhaps a small bit to go per radar. My temp sensor may be shot, but my rain gauge is still reading correctly per the USGS gauge a half mile from the house...

 

[MAG5035]

14 hours ago, Jns2183 said:

 

 

7 hours ago, bubbler86 said:

Wow, this is great, thank you.  So the data does show we have had less of the moderate snows falls in the last 2-3 decades but it goes beyond that with less snow fall events all together.  Also MDT only had 1 snowfall over 15" during the 45 year period of 1948-1992 and then a Bigly 7 over the 25 year period 93-18.  Something has changed whether global warming or another natural climate phenomena.

I have another observation.  Even if public internet had existed for all of that first 45 year period, boards like this would not be nearly as popular as they are now as many people here live for the MECS and HECs.  Having 7 in the last 25 years has spurred on this hobby.

 

I only see 4 events total in that spreadsheet that would categorize as 15" or greater. One in the 1983-1987 timeframe (Blizzard of 83), 2 in 1993-1997 (Blizzards of 93' and 96'), and of course the big one in 2013-2018 for the 2016 Blizzard. Clearly that's missing the Feb 2003 storm and then Feb 2010 storms as those events must have been split on multiple days. I feel like MDT probably had more than one event of >15" in the 1948-1992 but I don't really know that for sure, I'm not familiar with H-burg snowstorms back that far and the Gov't shutdown has claimed the site with the archived NESIS storm data. I can tell you that noted major snowstorms in 1958 and 1966 may have delivered such. The other site for Millersville snowfalls by decade that was provided on here showed 15+ snowfalls in 1958,1961, and 1979. I know that's not particularly the Harrisburg region but those are at leas a few other storms that might have done that in that time period. Single day snowfall data is probably not the best way to try to find a trend in frequency of storms of bigger size. Although yes the last especially 10 years has had an uptick in big single event snows in the Sus Valley.  It's hard to compare storms or periods of yesteryear to today simply because technology, how connected we are today, and how we're able to monitor and track these things and etc. I often wonder what the narrative might be if we actually had something like a 77-78 type winter, or a hurricane season like 1954 which featured three major hurricanes impacting the eastern seaboard in the same season (including one of the only Cat 4's to ever hit NC). Heck the town I live in had a 15-20inch snowstorm in 1928.. on APRIL 28th. If you look back hard enough you can find plenty of crazy prior to the last 25 years. 

One thing I do notice in those spreadsheets with how they're broken down, is some of the more recent lousy winter periods we've had. 1998-2002 is clearly the worst of the bunch having only 63 measurable snowfalls (discounting the one counting "T", but it's still the least with that). What did we have in that period? The 97-98 super nino winter, which was one of the least snowy in Harrisburg. Followed by 2 Nina winters and then the 01-02 non-winter. The period 1988-1992 was almost as bad. The 90s as a whole outside of 92-93, 93-94, and 95-96 featured some pretty underwhelming winters. Recent 5 year periods in the 2000s-2010s featured lower totals number of snowfalls until the most recent 5 year period which is back to being more on par with overall higher numbers prior to 1998-2002 period. But 1973-1977 also sticks out for having a low number of total snowfalls. That period, notably, conincides with a very dominant La-Nina ENSO state much as the late 90s (late 98 to early 2001) was.

[Bubbler86]

4 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

 

I only see 4 events total in that spreadsheet that would categorize as 15" or greater.

You are exactly right.  I rushed through the chart and added the totals column to the 93-Current list and the split day issue you revealed is another problem in taking the trend too seriously.  

[Voyager]

There are a handfull of road closures in and around the area due to flooding. Williamsport and I talked about this yesterday and here we are. No watch or advisories were issued, not even a mention other than in the AFD about not needing to issue any flood statements.

[MAG5035]

13 minutes ago, Voyager said:

There are a handfull of road closures in and around the area due to flooding. Williamsport and I talked about this yesterday and here we are. No watch or advisories were issued, not even a mention other than in the AFD about not needing to issue any flood statements.

Is it smaller streams/creeks type flooding or poor drainage? (Or both)