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Central PA - Jan/Feb 2019 Obs and Discussion


MAG5035
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"You know Nut if you would just move up north for the winter a lot of your problems would be solved.:snowing:"

 

I've also seen it a few years back when we had no rideable weekends at the cabin and got the goods down here.  We all know it comes and goes....ebbs and flows.  Yeah they get into it better than we do but, it really is a crap shoot and pattern and location dependent.  Outside of the lake belt regions, no one place has a big advantage.  We've all seen it/lived it.  We just take turns.  I'd trade places w/ many of you just because of location....no matter what the snow gods do in your area.  Y'all live in some perty country.

 

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4 minutes ago, bubbler86 said:

I am downgrading the west side of my first call with these questionable surface temps and the east trend.

Mag, 2001KX, Bubbler, Carlisle, Canderson, Atomic, Cashtown,  -1-3"
wmsptwx, Nut, Itstrainingtime, Daxx, Voyager-3-5"
 

 

based on 12z's so far, thats in the 10x ring IMO.

I still think ctp gets 2-3 w/ 4" lollies due to lift during frontal boundary passage. 

I/We put all of our faith in the secondary pop.  Scary but I'll take it if it works.

 

 

dips toe back into water......

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1 minute ago, bubbler86 said:

I am a bit worried with it as if we can keep surface temps down in the AM (we meaning far West LSV) we may get 1-3 in that morning slug then another 1-2 with the Front Passage making my call bust low.  

That too is a concern i have as anyone who has a marginal boundary will "lose" snow.  One good takeaway, is that event the warm blooded GFS has 850's safe at onset and they crash beyond that.  It might just work out. 

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2 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Icon is an Eastern pa deal as well.  Anyone west of the river is 1-2 at best. 

Still not sure this one is a win for us (me included). 

3 model runs till go time is 2 too many IMO.

 

The Icon has still been doing quite well with consistency.  I have only seen the FV3 through 18 but it sounded good based on a precip map posted in MA. 

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2 minutes ago, bubbler86 said:

The Icon has still been doing quite well with consistency.  I have only seen the FV3 through 18 but it sounded good based on a precip map posted in MA. 

Yep.  Some bash it....to me its just another tool in the warchest.  To your point it has been a consistent model.....but not always right.  In fairness theyve all struggled.

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1 minute ago, bubbler86 said:

The Euro has been all over the place.  Not performing well with these smaller events. 

Since last GFS upgrade, i've put more faith in the GFS...especially NS events.  I just dont get the bad wrap.  They ALL can bust...

While I understand the love affair some have w/ the Euro, it just has NOT performed well in the last couple years, and like any other model, its merely a tool.  It's bias of holding energy back in the SW as well as being a tad cold blooded mean it is just another one of the bunch. 

I really look at ALL of them from a 10000 ft then 5000 ft view (meaning from afar, not for finer details)  and jump to meso inside 36.  No revelation there, but how this weenie does it.

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Ugh can't believe I missed the Harrisburg data rabbit hole the last few days lol!! @Jns2183 I have a number of files that I have managed to pull together with Harrisburg's records dating back to 1888.  Unfortunately I am blocked here at work from being able to upload anything to something like google docs to share anything that I have but I will try to see if I can figure something out.  Like you had noted - there have been a number of location changes for Harrisburg where daily observations have occurred but I believe Harrisburg's official record dates back to 1888.  I worked through the data and have managed to find what I believe are the transition dates for each site based on what NWS State College has used for daily/monthly/seasonal records for temperatures and or precipitation. 

My go to sites are through NCDC.  Through this first link (not just for Harrisburg) there are a good number of archived data files for both airports as well as COOP and other stations.  Only issue is that I don't know what data is and isn't available there to everyone as I have access to it. 

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/IPS/

This second link below is likely a better resource as it allows downloads of significant amounts of data for stations.  I have .PDF files with the daily summaries for each month for MDT, Capital City, and earlier but need to see if I can recall the steps I used to request this data.  Same thing can be done for almost any available station so if someone is looking for data for somewhere not Harrisburg this may be a good resource too.

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdo-web/

While this may be a great resource - I have found occasional errors in the data that do not match up with other historical publications (likely occurring in the process of scanning the old files) so beware of occasional errors/discrepancies. 

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